RISKS OF NUCLEAR POWER 核能的风险 Bernard L. Cohen, Sc.D. 贝尔纳Sc.D Cohen l。
Professor at the University of Pittsburgh 匹兹堡大学的教授 Radiation 辐射
1The principal risks associated with nuclear power arise from health effects of radiation. This radiation consists of subatomic particles traveling at or near the velocity of light---186,000 miles per second. They can penetrate deep inside the human body where they can damage biological cells and thereby initiate a cancer. If they strike sex cells, they can cause genetic diseases in progeny. 1与核电相关的主要风险来自于辐射对健康的影响。这种辐射由亚原子粒子处于或接近光速旅行
——每秒-186000英里。他们可以穿透人体深处,在那里他们可以破坏生物细胞,从而启动癌症。如果他们罢工生殖细胞,它们可以导致后代基因疾病。
2 Radiation occurs naturally in our environment; a typical person is, and always has been struck by 15,000 particles of radiation every second from natural sources, and an average medical X-ray involves being struck by 100 billion. While this may seem to be very dangerous, it is not, because the probability for a particle of radiation entering a human body to cause a cancer or a genetic disease is only one chance in 30 million billion (30 quintillion). 2自然辐射发生在我们的环境中,一个
典型的人,总是被15000的辐射粒子每秒钟从天然来源,和平均医用x射线是被1000亿年。虽然这可能似乎是非常危险的,它不是,因为概率粒子的辐射进入人体导致癌症或遗传疾病只有一个机会在3亿亿年(3000亿亿年)。
3 Nuclear power technology produces materials that are active in emitting radiation and are therefore called \These materials can come into contact with people principally through small releases during routine plant operation, accidents in nuclear power plants, accidents in transporting radioactive materials, and escape of radioactive wastes from confinement systems. We will discuss these separately, but all of them taken together, with accidents treated probabilistically, will eventually expose the average American to about 0.2% of his exposure from natural radiation. Since natural radiation is estimated to cause about 1% of all cancers, radiation due to nuclear technology should eventually increase our cancer risk by 0.002% (one part in 50,000), reducing our life expectancy by less than one hour. By comparison, our loss of life expectancy from competitive electricity generation technologies, burning coal, oil, or gas, is estimated to range from 3 to 40 days.3核能技术生产材料,活跃在辐射,因此被称为“放射性”。这些材料
可以接触到人们主要通过小版本在常规工厂操作,在核电站事故,事故放射性物质运输,和逃避的放射性废物从封闭系统,我们将分别讨论这些,但是他们都在一起,与事故处理的概率,最终将使美国人平均约0.2%的接触自然辐射。因为自然辐射估计导致大约1%的癌症,辐射由于核技术最终应该增加癌症风险的0.002%(50000),减少我们的平均寿命不到一个小时。相比之下,我们的预期寿命的损失从竞争的发电技术,燃烧煤、石油或天然气,估计范围从3 - 40天。
4 There has been much misunderstanding on genetic diseases due to radiation. The risks are somewhat less than the cancer risks; for example, among the Japanese A-bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there have been about 400 extra cancer deaths among the 100,000 people in the follow-up group, but there have been no extra genetic diseases among their progeny. Since there is no possible way for the cells in our bodies to distinguish between natural radiation and radiation from the nuclear industry, the latter cannot cause new types of genetic diseases or deformities (e.g., bionic man), or threaten the \race\Other causes of genetic disease include delayed parenthood (children of older parents have higher incidence) and men wearing pants (this warms the gonads, increasing the frequency of spontaneous mutations). The genetic
risks of nuclear power are equivalent to delaying parenthood by 2.5 days, or of men wearing pants an extra 8 hours per year. Much can be done to avert genetic diseases utilizing currently available technology; if 1% of the taxes paid by the nuclear industry were used to further implement this technology, 80 cases of genetic disease would be averted for each case caused by the nuclear industry. 4遗传疾病有许多误解由于辐射。风险是有点小于癌症风险;例如,在日本的广岛和长崎的原子弹
幸存者,约有400多癌症死亡的100000人在随访组,但是没有额外的在他们的后代遗传疾病。由于没有可行的方法在我们的身体细胞区分自然核工业辐射和辐射,后者不能引起新的类型的遗传疾病或畸形(如仿生人),或威胁的“人类”。其他遗传疾病的原因包括推迟生育(老年父母的孩子会有更高的发病率)和男人穿裤子(这温暖性腺,增加自发突变的频率)。核能的遗传风险由2.5天相当于推迟生育,或男人穿裤子每年额外的8小时。有很多事情可以做来避免遗传疾病利用现有技术;如果核工业所缴纳的税款的1%被用来进一步落实这项技术,80例遗传性疾病会对每种情况下避免造成了核工业的发展。
Reactor accidents 核反应堆事故
5 The nuclear power plant design strategy for preventing accidents and mitigating their potential effects is \if that system should also fail there is another back-up system for it, etc., etc. Of course it is possible that each system in this series of back-ups might fail one after the other, but the probability for that is exceedingly small. The Media often publicize a failure of some particular system in some plant, implying that it was a close call\of defense in depth which easily takes care of such failures. Even in the Three Mile Island accident where at least two equipment failures were severely compounded by human errors, two lines of defense were still not breached--- essentially all of the radioactivity remained sealed in the thick steel reactor vessel, and that vessel was sealed inside the heavily reinforced concrete and steel lined \on disaster to the surrounding population. The Soviet Chernobyl reactor, built on a much less safe design concept, did not have such a containment structure; if it did, that disaster would have been averted. 5预防事故的核电站设计策略和减轻他们的潜在影响是“纵深防御”——如果失败,有一个备用系统
限制的危害,如果这个系统还应该失败了还有一个备用系统,等等,等等。当然,每个系统在这个系列的一个接一个的备份可能会失败,但概率非常小。媒体经常宣传的失败一些特定系统在一些工厂,这意味着这是一个亲密的叫“灾难;他们完全忽略的深度防御这很容易照顾这样的失败。即使在三里岛事故,至少两个设备故障严重加剧了人类的错误,两条防线仍然没有突破——本质上所有的放射性厚重的钢反应堆容器保持密封,,船是密封在钢筋混凝土和钢衬“遏制”建筑,甚至从来没有挑战。这显然不是一个接近呼吁周围的人口灾难。苏联切尔诺贝利反应堆,建立在一个更安全的设计理念,没有这样的外壳结构;如果是,灾难会被避免。
6 Risks from reactor accidents are estimated by the rapidly developing science of \risk analysis\but we give typical results here: A fuel melt-down might be expected once in 20,000 years of reactor operation. In 2 out of 3 melt-downs there would be no deaths, in 1 out of 5 there would be over 1000 deaths, and in 1 out of 100,000 there would be 50,000 deaths. The average for all meltdowns would be 400 deaths. Since air pollution from coal burning is estimated to be causing 10,000 deaths per year, there would have to be 25 melt-downs each year for nuclear power to be as dangerous as coal burning. 6从反应堆事故风险估计的快速发展的科学“概率风险分析”(PRA)。每个电
厂的PRA必须单独完成(花费500万美元)但我们给出典型的结果:一次燃料溶解可能会在20000年的反应堆操作。2的3熔化就没有死亡,1例5会有超过1000人死亡,而在1 100000 50000人死亡。所有危机的平均400人死亡。因为空气污染从燃煤估计每年导致10000人死亡,每年会有25熔化对核能是烧煤一样危险。
7 Of course deaths from coal burning air pollution are not noticeable, but the same is true for the cancer deaths from reactor accidents. In the worst accident considered, expected once in 100,000 melt-downs (once in 2 billion years of reactor operation), the cancer deaths would be among 10 million people, increasing their cancer risk typically from 20% (the current U.S. average) to 20.5%. This is much less than the geographical variation--- 22% in New England to 17% in the Rocky Mountain states. 当然死于煤燃烧空气污染不明显,但同样适用于癌症死亡从反应堆事故。最严重
的事故,100000年预期一旦熔化(曾在20亿年的反应堆操作),癌症死亡人数将在1000万人中,增加他们患癌症的风险通常从20%(目前美国平均)到20.5%。这是远低于地理变异在新英格兰的17% - - - 22%落基山州。
8Very high radiation doses can destroy body functions and lead to death within 60 days, but such \over 100 in 0.2% of meltdowns, and 3500 in 1 out of 100,000 melt-downs. To date, the largest number of noticeable deaths from coal burning was in an air pollution incident (London, 1952) where there were 3500 extra deaths in one week. Of course the nuclear accidents are hypothetical and there are many much worse hypothetical accidents in other electricity generation technologies; e.g., there are hydroelectric dams in California whose sudden failure could cause 200,000 deaths. Radioactive Waste 非常高的辐射剂量可以摧毁身体功能和在60天内导致死亡,但这种“明显的”死亡将只
有2%的反应堆出现事故,会有超过100 0.2%的危机,和3500年在1 100000年熔化。迄今为止,最多的明显死于煤在空气污染事件(伦敦,1952年),其中有3500名死亡一周。当然,核事故都是假设的,有很多更糟假设的事故在其他发电技术;例如,水电站在加州的突然失败可能导致200000人死亡。
9 The radioactive waste products from the nuclear industry must be isolated from contact with people for very long time periods. The bulk of the radioactivity is contained in the spent fuel, which is quite small in volume and therefore easily handled with great care. This \level waste%underground. The average lifetime of a rock in that environment is one billion years. If the waste behaves like other rock, it is easily shown that the waste generated by one nuclear power plant will eventually, over millions of years (if there is no cure found for cancer), cause one death from 50 years of operation. By comparison, the wastes from coal burning plants that end up in the ground will eventually cause several thousand deaths from generating the same amount of electricity. 10The much larger volume of much less radioactive (low level) waste from nuclear plants will be buried at shallow depths (typically 20 feet) in soil. If we assume that this material immediately becomes dispersed through the soil between the surface and ground water depth (despite elaborate measures to maintain waste package integrity) and behaves like the same materials that are present naturally in soil (there is extensive evidence confirming such behavior), the death toll from this low level waste would be 5% of that from the high level waste discussed in the previous paragraph.
核工业的放射性废物产品必须隔离与人接触很长时间。大量的放射性是包含在乏燃料,在体积非常小,因此很容易处理。这个“高水平废物”将被转换成这种像石头一样的形式和侵位于岩石的自然栖息地,地下深处。环境的岩石的平均寿命是十亿岁。如果浪费行为与其他岩石一样,很容易发现一个核电站所产生的废物最终,经过数百万年的(如果没有发现治愈癌症),导致一人死亡50年的操作。相比之下,从燃煤电厂废弃物,最终在地面将最终导致几千人死于产生了相同数量的电力。10大得多的量更少来自核电站放射性(低级别)废物将被埋在浅深度土壤中(通常是20英尺)。如果我们假设这种材料立即变得分散通过表面之间的土壤和地下水深度(尽管精心设计的措施维护废物包完整性)和行为像相同的材料,存在自然土壤中(有广泛的证据证实这种行为),这低水平浪费会造成的死亡人数的5%,高水平的浪费在前款规定的讨论。
Other Radiation Problems其他辐射问题
11 The effects of routine releases of radioactivity from nuclear plants depend somewhat on how the spent fuel is handled. A typical estimate is that they may reduce our life expectancy by 15 minutes. 例程从核电站释放的放射性物质的影响取决于所乏燃料是如何处理的。一个典型的估计是,他们可能会减少我们的寿命15分钟。
12 Potential problems from accidents in transport of radioactive materials are largely neutralized by elaborate packaging. A great deal of such transport has taken place over the past 50 years and there have been numerous accidents, including fatal ones. However, from all of these accidents combined, there is less than a 1% chance that even a single death will ever result from radiation exposure. Probabilistic risk analyses indicate that we can expect less than one death per century in U.S. from this source. 12事故放射性物质运输的潜在问题在很大程度上是中和等精心包装。大量的交通
发生在过去50年里,已经有大量的事故,包括致命的。然而,从所有这些事故相结合,有不到1%的几率,甚至一个单一的死亡会导致辐射。概率风险分析表明,我们可以预见不到一死亡每世纪在美国从这个来源。
13 Mining uranium to fuel nuclear power plants leaves \processing of the ore, which lead to radon exposures to the public. However, these effects are grossly over-compensated by the fact that mining uranium out of the ground reduces future radon exposures. By comparison, coal burning leaves ashes that increase future radon exposures. The all-inclusive estimates of radon effects are that one nuclear power plant operating for one year will eventually avert a few hundred deaths, while an equivalent coal burning plant will eventually cause 30 deaths.13开采铀燃料核电站叶子矿山尾矿,残留的化学处理的矿石,导致氡暴露给公众。然而,这
些影响是严重矫正由于开采铀的地面减少未来的氡暴露。相比之下,煤炭燃烧树叶灰烬,增加未来的氡暴露。全面估计氡的影响是一个核电站运营一年最终会避免几百人死亡,而一个等价的燃煤工厂将最终导致30人死亡。