leslie人口增长模型(7)

2019-09-01 11:13

0.825482359 0.807942823 0.736552002 0.69043204 0.60580295 0.615510624 0.554785663 0.50370135 0.480051762 0.468722817 0.455364059 0.484386541 0.447344681 0.420164498 0.44238033 0.426529091 0.428183875 0.39132953 0.380409129 0.385339967 0.327924574 0.334697711 0.307330012 0.262864834 0.270663183 0.235872165 0.208725495 0.212001549 0.178456772 0.164260316 0.149842833 0.138734916 0.109899949 0.097358277 0.0765762 0.0638135 0.055794123 0.049396016 0.0382881 0.033544777 0.023870616 0.070211606]; N0=N'; A=eye(90);

b=[0.974906966 0.999321231 0.99772433 0.999247616 0.999567418 0.999180663 0.999887948 0.999387596 0.999618586 0.999985672 0.999389434 0.999724354 0.999801796 0.999627626 0.999704795 0.999639686 0.999728462 0.999974533 0.999173327 0.998954118 0.999441067 0.999357392 0.999290675 0.998999176 0.999881604 0.998896347 0.998355939 0.999135339 0.999074527 0.998872652 0.999180794 0.998918159 0.999046112 0.999042354 0.999396027 0.998624972 0.998252716 0.999597855 0.998710945 0.999003274 0.999443444 0.999141415 0.998772101 0.998940505 0.997905005 0.998374562 0.997783774 0.997596666 0.997344906 0.996954499 0.996669784 0.996030759 0.995006639 0.996157488 0.994647744 0.995779435 0.995652313 0.99577713 0.992477806 0.994969564 0.988130537 0.989284868 0.988703961 0.988302563 0.98420824 0.984495416 0.985298735 0.980062089 0.978928307 0.977358446 0.971126989 0.969303899 0.969979818 0.96405059 0.961740312 0.96729706 0.948302346 0.946571559 0.949641387 0.935949391 0.912489482 0.9261805 0.923757863 0.928757906 0.918230333 0.887761389 0.885306858 0.875178086 0.882495752 0.824428701];

b1=[0.974906966 0.999321231 0.99772433 0.999247616 0.999567418 0.999180663 0.999887948

0.999387596 0.999618586 0.999985672 0.999389434 0.999724354 0.999801796 0.999627626 0.999704795 0.999639686 0.999728462 0.999974533 0.999173327 0.998954118 0.999441067 0.999357392 0.999290675 0.998999176 0.999881604 0.998896347 0.998355939 0.999135339 0.999074527 0.998872652 0.999180794 0.998918159 0.999046112 0.999042354 0.999396027 0.998624972 0.998252716 0.999597855 0.998710945 0.999003274 0.999443444 0.999141415 0.998772101 0.998940505 0.997905005 0.998374562 0.997783774 0.997596666 0.997344906 0.996954499 0.996669784 0.996030759 0.995006639 0.996157488 0.994647744 0.995779435 0.995652313 0.99577713 0.992477806 0.994969564 0.988130537 0.989284868 0.988703961 0.988302563 0.98420824 0.984495416 0.985298735 0.980062089 0.978928307 0.977358446 0.971126989 0.969303899 0.969979818 0.96405059 0.961740312 0.96729706 0.948302346 0.946571559 0.949641387 0.935949391 0.912489482 0.9261805 0.923757863 0.928757906 0.918230333 0.887761389 0.885306858 0.875178086 0.882495752 0.824428701 0.7717624]; for i=1:90

A(i,:)=A(i,:)*b(1,i); end A;

c1=[0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.478E-05 0.000322169 0.000358246 0.001004604 0.004683367 0.011011165 0.033616492 0.057875394 0.074871727 0.069182006 0.076039141 0.06724895 0.052429406 0.043732464 0.034350502 0.024632733 0.023252532 0.018343847 0.014701275 0.011039961 0.007117557 0.005094843 0.00359291 0.002514858 0.002484781 0.001764709 0.001471644 0.000676953 0.000265476 0.000401474 0.000408779 0.000110447 0.000192401 0.000389421 0.000224069 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]; %由2001年原始数据得到的生育率 t=sum(c1);

c=((x*p-t)/t+1)*c1 %修正后的生育率 M=sum(c'); %总合生育率 d=zeros(91,1); B=[c;A];

L=[B,d]; [V,d]=eig(L); p=d(42,42); Q=-V(:,42); for i=0:49

D=L^i*N0; E(i+1,1)=sum(D)/p for j=0:90 F(j+1,1)=j*D(j+1,1)/p;

T(j+1,1)=exp(-b1(1,j+1)); end

Y(i+1)=sum(F)/E(i+1,1); end

Y T=0;

%构造的lestie矩阵 %求特征根与特征向量 %特征根

%对应的正特征向量 %第i年女性人口分布 %第i年总人口（2001为第0年） %大于90岁的按90岁算 %平均年龄 %输出01-50年平均年龄矩阵 33

s=0;

for i=0:90 %大于90岁的按90岁算

T=T+exp(b1(1,j+1)-1); %求平均寿命，不随年份而变化 end T

W=Y/T; %社会老龄化指数 x=2001:2050; W1=compare(1.6); W2=compare(1.8); W3=compare(2.0); W4=compare(2.2); plot(x,W1,'-r') hold on plot(x,W2,'-G') plot(x,W3,'-B') plot(x,W4,'-Y')

年龄女性总人数（万人）出生婴儿数 0 1 2 680.8912721 584.5917197 584.5582068 0 0 0 平均有孩子数 0 0 0 女性死亡率存活率 0.025093034 0.974906966 0.000678769 0.999321231 0.00227567 0.99772433 34

3 4 5 6 7 692.2202166 724.1102102 775.5360408 847.368918 834.4187027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000752384 0.999247616 0.000432582 0.999567418 0.000819337 0.999180663 0.000112052 0.999887948 0.000612404 0.999387596 8 917.9220422 9 951.4668194 10 1070.015717 11 1249.256063 12 1199.263988 13 1202.198525 14 1274.218917 15 1111.050839 16 992.3144255 17

893.7975435

18 874.6573467 19 984.3568772 20 859.5767785 21

852.1534601

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04975282 4.478E-05 0.31969267 0.000322169 0.32019903 0.000358246

0.87868421

5 0.001004604 4.61010475

2 0.004683367 9.46494179

3 0.011011165 28.6464102

0.033616492

0.000381414 1.43283E-05 0.000610566 0.000275646 0.000198204 0.000372374 0.000295205 0.000360314 0.000271538 2.54672E-05 0.000826673 0.001045882 0.000558933 0.000642608 0.999618586 0.999985672 0.999389434 0.999724354 0.999801796 0.999627626 0.999704795 0.999639686 0.999728462 0.999974533

0.999173327

0.998954118

0.999441067 0.999357392

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