太阳能电池片及组件项目可行性研究报告书

2018-09-28 19:10

第一章总论

第一节项目名称及承办单位

一、项目名称

太阳能电池片及组件项目二、承办单位 xxxxxxxxx 四、拟建地点 xxxxxxxxx 五、项目编制单位单位名称：**** 工程咨询等级：*** 工程咨询证书编号：**** 发证机关：国家发展和改革委员会

第二节研究工作的依据与范围

一、研究工作的依据

1、国家发改委关于编制可行性研究报告的有关规定； 2、《产业结构调整指导目录(2005年本) 》； 3、国家有关法律、法规及产业政策； 4、项目承担单位提供的基础数据。二、可行性研究工作的范围

根据项目建设单位的委托，项目可行性研究的范围包括：

1、对项目提出的背景、必要性、产品的市场前景进行分析，对企业销售、市场发展趋势和需求量进行预测；

2、对产品方案、生产工艺进行论述，通过研究确定项目拟建规模，拟定合理工艺技术方案和设备选型；

of the North of England, and the fourth, the Normans, left castles and introduced new words for food. If you look around the British countryside you will find evidence of all these invaders. You must keep your eyes open if you are going to make your trip to the United Kingdom enjoyable and worthwhile. SIGHTSEEING IN LONDON Worried about the time available, Zhang Pingyu had made a list of the sites she wanted to see in London. Her first delight was going to the Tower. It was built long ago by the Norman invaders of AD 1066. Fancy! This solid stone, square tower had remained standing for one thousand years. Although the buildings had expanded around it, it remained part of a royal palace and prison combined. To her great surprise, Zhang Pingyu found the Queen jewels guarded by special royal soldiers who, on special occasions, still wore the four-hundred-year-old uniform of the time of Queen Elizabeth I. There followed St Paul Cathedral built after the terrible fire of London in 1666. It looked splendid when first built! Westminster Abbey, too, was very interesting. It contained statues in memory of dead poets and writers, such as Shakespeare. Then just as she came out of the abbey, Pingyu heard the famous sound of the clock, Big Ben, ringing out the hour. She finished the day by looking at the outside of Buckingham Palace, the Queens house in London. Oh, she had so mush to tell her friends! The second day the girl visited Greenwich and saw its old ships and famous clock that sets the world time. What interested her most was the longitude line. It is an imaginary line dividing the eastern and western halves of the world and is very useful for navigation. It passes through Greenwich, so Pingyu had a photo taken standing on either side of the line. The last day she visited karl Marxs statue in Highgate Cemetery. It seemed strange that the man who had developed communism should have lived and died in London. Not only that, but he had worked in the famous reading room of the Library of the British Museum. Sadly the library had moved from its original place into another building and the old reading room was gone. But she was thrilled by so many wonderful treasures from different cultures displayed in the museum. When she saw many visitors enjoying looking at the beautiful old Chinese pots and other objects on show, she felt very proud of her country. The next day Pingyu was leaving London for Windsor Castle. Perhaps I will see the Queen? she wondered as she fell asleep. Unit 3 FIRST IMPRESSIONS Spacemail: liqiang299A@GreatAdventureSpaceStation.com 15/11/3008(Earthtime) Dear Mum and Dad, I still cannot believe that I am taking up this prize that I won last year. I have to remind myself constantly that I am really in AD 3008 . Worried about the journey, I was unsettled for the first few days. As a result, I suffered from time lag. This is similar to the jet lag you get from flying, but it seems you keep getting flashbacks from your previous time period. So I was very nervous and uncertain at first. However, my friend and guide, Wang Ping, was very understanding and gave me some green tablets which helped a lot. Well-known for their expertise, his parents company, calledFuture Tours, transported me safely into the future in a time capsule. I can still remember the moment when the space stewardess called us all to the capsule and we climbed in through a small opening. The seats were comfortable and after a calming drink, we felt sleepy and closed our eyes. The capsule began swinging gently sideways as we lay relaxed and dreaming. A few minutes later, the journey was completed and we had arrived. I was still on the earth but one thousand years in the future.What would I find? At first my new surroundings were difficult to tolerate. The air seemed thin, as though its combination of gases had little oxygen left. Hit by a lack of fresh air, my head ached. Just as I tried to make the necessary adjustment to this new situation, Wang Ping appeared.Put on this mask, he advised.Itll make you feel much better. He handed it to me and immediately hurried me through to a small room nearby for a rest. I felt better in no time. Soon I was back on my feet again and flowing him to collect a hovering carriage driven by computer. These carriages float above the ground and by bending or pressing down in your seat, you can move swiftly. Wang Ping fastened my safety belt and showed me how to use it. Soon I could fly as fast as him. However, I lost sight of Wang Ping when we reached what looked like a large market because of too many carriages flying by in all directions. He was swept up into the centre of them. Just at that moment I had a ime lag flashback and saw the area again as it had been in the year AD 2008. I realized that I had been transported into the future of what was still my hometown! Then I caught sight of Wang Ping again and flew after him. Arriving at a strange-looking house, he showed me into a large, bright clean room. It had a green wall, a brown floor and soft lighting. Suddenly the wall moved it was made of trees! I found later that their leaves provided the room with much-needed oxygen. Then Wang Ping flashed a switch on a computer screen, and a table and some chairs rose from under the floor as if by magic.Why not sit down and eat a little? he said. You may find this difficult as it is your first time travel trip. Just relax, since there is nothing planned on the timetable today. Tomorrow youll be ready for some visits. Having said this, he spread some food on the table, and produced a bed from the floor. After he left, I had a brief meal and a hot bath. Exhausted, I slid into bed and fell fast asleep. More news later from your loving son, Li Qing I HAVE SEEN AMAZING THINGS My first visit was to a space station considered the most modern in space. Described as an enormous round plate, it spins slowly in space to imitate the pull of the earths gravity. Inside was an exhibition of the most up-to-date inventions of the 31st century. A guide(G) showed us around along a moveable path. G: Good morning to all our visitors from 2008. First were going to examine one of the latest forms of communication among our space citizens. No more typists working on a typewriter or computer! No more postage or postcodes! Messages can now be sent using a thoughtpad You place the metal band over your head, clear your mind, press the sending button, think your message and the next instant its sent. Its stored on the thoughtpad of the receiver. It quick, efficient and environmentally friendly. The only limitation is if the user does not think his or her message clearly, an unclear message may be sent. But we cannot blame the tools for the faults of the user, can we? During the explanation I looked at the pair of small objects calledthoughjtpads on a table. They just looked like metal ribbons. So ordinary but so powerful! While I was observing them, the path moved us on. G: And now ladies and gentlemen, we are in the environment area. People used to collect waste in dustbins. Then the rubbish was sent to be buried or burned, am I right?(We nodded.) Well, now thers a system where the waste is disposed of using the principles of ecology. A giant machine, always greedy for more, swallows all the waste available. The rubbish is turned into several grades of useful material, such asfertilizer for the fields and soul fordeserts. Nothing is wasted, and everything, even plastic bags, is recycled. A great idea, isnt it? I stared at the moving model of the waste machine, absorbed by its efficiency. But again we moved on. G: Our third stop shows the changes that have happened to work practices. Manufacturing no longer takes place on the earth but on space stations like this one. A group of engineers programmer robots to perform tasks in space. The robots produce goods such as drugs, clothes, furniture, hovering carriages, etc. There is no waste, no pollution and no environmental damage! However, the companies have to train their representatives to live and work in space settlements. They have to monitor the robots and the production. When the goods are ready theyre transported by industrial spaceship back to earth. My mind began to wander. What job would I do? My motivation increased as I thought of the wonderful world of the future. Unit4 MY FIRST WORK ASSIGNMENT unforgettable, says new journalist Never will Zhou Yang (ZY) forget his first assignment at the office of a popular English newspaper. His discussion with his new boss, Hu Xin (HX), was to1

3、对项目的建设条件、厂址、原料供应、交通条件进行研究； 4、对项目总图运输、生产工艺、公用设施等技术方案进行研究； 5、就项目的消防、环保、劳动安全卫生及节能措施的评价； 6、对项目实施进度、劳动定员的确定；

7、进行项目投资估算，对项目的产品成本估算和经济效益分析，进行不确定性分析，提出财务评价结论；

8、提出项目的可行性研究工作结论。

第三节简要研究结论及主要经济技术指标

一、简要研究结论 1、建设规模

项目的建设规模是年产200MW组件（MODULE），中间产品为100MW硅片（WAFER），25MW电池片（CELL）与伺服系统。

2、地址选择

项目选址在xxxxxxxxxxxx。 3、工艺技术

（1）单晶硅锭生产工艺

本项目生产所用直拉单晶炉是采用切克劳斯基法的技术。本项目采用CZ900A型单晶炉，是一种软轴提拉型单晶炉，在惰性气体（氩气）的保护环境中，以石墨电阻加热器，将多晶硅材料熔化，用直拉法生长无错位单晶棒的设备。

（2）多晶硅锭生产工艺

本项目生产所用结晶炉是采用热交换与布里曼相结合的技术。本项目采用R13450-1型多晶硅铸锭炉，它采用先进的多晶硅定向凝固技术，将硅料高温熔融后通过特殊工艺定向冷凝结晶,从而达到太阳能电池生产用多晶硅品质的要求，是一种适用于长时间连续工作，高精度、高可靠性、

自动化程度高的智能化大生产设备。

（3）硅片工艺流程

硅片的加工是将硅锭经表面整形、切割、研磨、腐蚀、抛光、清洗等工艺，加工成具有一定宽度、长度、厚度、晶向和高度、表面平行度、平整度、光洁度，表面无缺陷、无崩边、无损伤层，高度完整、均匀、光洁的镜面硅片。

（4）电池片工艺流程

电池片生产工艺经过硅片检测、表面制绒、扩散制结、去磷硅玻璃、等离子刻蚀、镀减反射膜、丝网印刷、快速烧结和检测分装等主要步骤。

（5）组件工艺流程

电池检测→自动焊接→敷设→层压→去毛边（去边、清洗）→装边框（涂胶、装角键、冲孔、装框、擦洗余胶）→焊接接线盒→高压测试→组件测试→外观检验→包装入库。

4、工程建设方案

本项目拟建在xxxxxxxxxx，总建筑面积125640平方米。 5、劳动定员

项目年生产天数300天，项目建成投产后劳动定员为1800人，其中管理人员118人，技术人员58人，生产工人1624人。

6、建设期项目建设期1年。 7、投资估算与资金筹措

项目总投资53870万元，其中建设投资38608万元，贷款利息675万元，铺底流动资金14587万元。

项目建设总投资53870万元，其中申请银行贷款25000万元，其余由光伏科技公司自筹解决。

8、财务评价

项目建成后，年实现销售收入243750万元，年总成本209487万元，

年利润总额33288万元，所得税8322万元。

项目投资利润率28.40%。

税后财务内部收益率为37.44%，投资回收期4.27年(含建设期1年)。 9、结论

本项目致力于从铸硅锭，切片至电池组件出品的完整光伏产业链的研发、生产及销售，所有产品都将通过UL，IEC和TUV的国际认证。光伏科技公司将相关质量管理体系作为公司行为准则，并以雄厚的技术力量和先进的检测设备为支撑，为客户提供快捷的服务和完善的光伏系列产品的设计方案。

该项目的实施，符合我国能源结构调整的要求，符合环境效益和社会效益的要求，同时该项目还将极大推动本地区的经济，科技，就业及其他附带产业的发展。

二、主要经济技术指标

主要技术经济指标表

序号项目生产规模 1 单晶硅片/多晶硅片电池片组件项目总投资其中：建设投资 2 铺底流动资金贷款利息 3 4 5 6 7 流动资金建筑面积项目定员设备装机容量年用水量 4

单位 MW MW MW 万元万元万元万元万元 m2 人 kW m3 指标 40/60 25 200 53870 38608 14587 675 48622 125640 1800 11370 216000 备注 of the North of England, and the fourth, the Normans, left castles and introduced new words for food. If you look around the British countryside you will find evidence of all these invaders. You must keep your eyes open if you are going to make your trip to the United Kingdom enjoyable and worthwhile. SIGHTSEEING IN LONDON Worried about the time available, Zhang Pingyu had made a list of the sites she wanted to see in London. Her first delight was going to the Tower. It was built long ago by the Norman invaders of AD 1066. Fancy! This solid stone, square tower had remained standing for one thousand years. Although the buildings had expanded around it, it remained part of a royal palace and prison combined. To her great surprise, Zhang Pingyu found the Queen jewels guarded by special royal soldiers who, on special occasions, still wore the four-hundred-year-old uniform of the time of Queen Elizabeth I. There followed St Paul Cathedral built after the terrible fire of London in 1666. It looked splendid when first built! Westminster Abbey, too, was very interesting. It contained statues in memory of dead poets and writers, such as Shakespeare. Then just as she came out of the abbey, Pingyu heard the famous sound of the clock, Big Ben, ringing out the hour. She finished the day by looking at the outside of Buckingham Palace, the Queens house in London. Oh, she had so mush to tell her friends! The second day the girl visited Greenwich and saw its old ships and famous clock that sets the world time. What interested her most was the longitude line. It is an imaginary line dividing the eastern and western halves of the world and is very useful for navigation. It passes through Greenwich, so Pingyu had a photo taken standing on either side of the line. The last day she visited karl Marxs statue in Highgate Cemetery. It seemed strange that the man who had developed communism should have lived and died in London. Not only that, but he had worked in the famous reading room of the Library of the British Museum. Sadly the library had moved from its original place into another building and the old reading room was gone. But she was thrilled by so many wonderful treasures from different cultures displayed in the museum. When she saw many visitors enjoying looking at the beautiful old Chinese pots and other objects on show, she felt very proud of her country. The next day Pingyu was leaving London for Windsor Castle. Perhaps I will see the Queen? she wondered as she fell asleep. Unit 3 FIRST IMPRESSIONS Spacemail: liqiang299A@GreatAdventureSpaceStation.com 15/11/3008(Earthtime) Dear Mum and Dad, I still cannot believe that I am taking up this prize that I won last year. I have to remind myself constantly that I am really in AD 3008 . Worried about the journey, I was unsettled for the first few days. As a result, I suffered from time lag. This is similar to the jet lag you get from flying, but it seems you keep getting flashbacks from your previous time period. So I was very nervous and uncertain at first. However, my friend and guide, Wang Ping, was very understanding and gave me some green tablets which helped a lot. Well-known for their expertise, his parents company, calledFuture Tours, transported me safely into the future in a time capsule. I can still remember the moment when the space stewardess called us all to the capsule and we climbed in through a small opening. The seats were comfortable and after a calming drink, we felt sleepy and closed our eyes. The capsule began swinging gently sideways as we lay relaxed and dreaming. A few minutes later, the journey was completed and we had arrived. I was still on the earth but one thousand years in the future.What would I find? At first my new surroundings were difficult to tolerate. The air seemed thin, as though its combination of gases had little oxygen left. Hit by a lack of fresh air, my head ached. Just as I tried to make the necessary adjustment to this new situation, Wang Ping appeared.Put on this mask, he advised.Itll make you feel much better. He handed it to me and immediately hurried me through to a small room nearby for a rest. I felt better in no time. Soon I was back on my feet again and flowing him to collect a hovering carriage driven by computer. These carriages float above the ground and by bending or pressing down in your seat, you can move swiftly. Wang Ping fastened my safety belt and showed me how to use it. Soon I could fly as fast as him. However, I lost sight of Wang Ping when we reached what looked like a large market because of too many carriages flying by in all directions. He was swept up into the centre of them. Just at that moment I had a ime lag flashback and saw the area again as it had been in the year AD 2008. I realized that I had been transported into the future of what was still my hometown! Then I caught sight of Wang Ping again and flew after him. Arriving at a strange-looking house, he showed me into a large, bright clean room. It had a green wall, a brown floor and soft lighting. Suddenly the wall moved it was made of trees! I found later that their leaves provided the room with much-needed oxygen. Then Wang Ping flashed a switch on a computer screen, and a table and some chairs rose from under the floor as if by magic.Why not sit down and eat a little? he said. You may find this difficult as it is your first time travel trip. Just relax, since there is nothing planned on the timetable today. Tomorrow youll be ready for some visits. Having said this, he spread some food on the table, and produced a bed from the floor. After he left, I had a brief meal and a hot bath. Exhausted, I slid into bed and fell fast asleep. More news later from your loving son, Li Qing I HAVE SEEN AMAZING THINGS My first visit was to a space station considered the most modern in space. Described as an enormous round plate, it spins slowly in space to imitate the pull of the earths gravity. Inside was an exhibition of the most up-to-date inventions of the 31st century. A guide(G) showed us around along a moveable path. G: Good morning to all our visitors from 2008. First were going to examine one of the latest forms of communication among our space citizens. No more typists working on a typewriter or computer! No more postage or postcodes! Messages can now be sent using a thoughtpad You place the metal band over your head, clear your mind, press the sending button, think your message and the next instant its sent. Its stored on the thoughtpad of the receiver. It quick, efficient and environmentally friendly. The only limitation is if the user does not think his or her message clearly, an unclear message may be sent. But we cannot blame the tools for the faults of the user, can we? During the explanation I looked at the pair of small objects calledthoughjtpads on a table. They just looked like metal ribbons. So ordinary but so powerful! While I was observing them, the path moved us on. G: And now ladies and gentlemen, we are in the environment area. People used to collect waste in dustbins. Then the rubbish was sent to be buried or burned, am I right?(We nodded.) Well, now thers a system where the waste is disposed of using the principles of ecology. A giant machine, always greedy for more, swallows all the waste available. The rubbish is turned into several grades of useful material, such asfertilizer for the fields and soul fordeserts. Nothing is wasted, and everything, even plastic bags, is recycled. A great idea, isnt it? I stared at the moving model of the waste machine, absorbed by its efficiency. But again we moved on. G: Our third stop shows the changes that have happened to work practices. Manufacturing no longer takes place on the earth but on space stations like this one. A group of engineers programmer robots to perform tasks in space. The robots produce goods such as drugs, clothes, furniture, hovering carriages, etc. There is no waste, no pollution and no environmental damage! However, the companies have to train their representatives to live and work in space settlements. They have to monitor the robots and the production. When the goods are ready theyre transported by industrial spaceship back to earth. My mind began to wander. What job would I do? My motivation increased as I thought of the wonderful world of the future. Unit4 MY FIRST WORK ASSIGNMENT unforgettable, says new journalist Never will Zhou Yang (ZY) forget his first assignment at the office of a popular English newspaper. His discussion with his new boss, Hu Xin (HX), was to8 主要原材料吨 990 高纯度硅料 9 销售收入万元/年 243750 10 总成本万元/年 209487 正常年 11 投资利润率 % 28.40 12 财务内部收益率 % 37.44 税后 13 投资回收期年 4.27 含建设期 14 盈亏平衡点 % 42.23

the fourth, the Normans, left castles and introduced new words for food. If you look around the British countryside you will find evidence of all these invaders. You must keep your eyes open if you are going to make your trip to the United Kingdom enjoyable and worthwhile. SIGHTSEEING IN LONDON Worried about the time available, Zhang Pingyu had made a list of the sites she wanted to see in London. Her first delight was going to the Tower. It was built long ago by the Norman invaders of AD 1066. Fancy! This solid stone, square tower had remained standing for one thousand years. Although the buildings had expanded around it, it remained part of a royal palace and prison combined. To her great surprise, Zhang Pingyu found the Queen jewels guarded by special royal soldiers who, on special occasions, still wore the four-hundred-year-old uniform of the time of Qm should h after the terrave livible fired and de of London in 1666.ied in London. Not It only that looked s, butplendid he had worked when first built! in the famous Westminst reading rer Abbey, too, woom of the Library of the Britas very interesting. Itish Museum. contained statues in memor Sadly the library hady of d moved from itsead poets and writ original place into another bers, such as Shakespeare.uilding and Then just the old as she came out reading r of thoom wase abb gone.ey, Pingyu heard But she was thrilled the famous by so many w sound of the clock, Big Ben, ringing outonderful treasures from different cultur the hour. She finished thes displayed in the museum.e day by looking at When she saw many vis the outside of Buckingham Palace, the Queenitors enjoying looking at the beautiful olds house in London. Oh, she had so mush to tell h Chinese pots and other objects on show, sher friends! The seconde felt very proud day the gir of her country.l visited The next Greenwich day Pingyu was and saw its old ships and famous leaving London for Windsor C clock that sastle. ets thPerhaps I will see the Qe world time. What interueen?ested sh her moste wonder was thed as she fell asleep. e longitude line. It is an imaginary line d Unit 3 FIRST IMPRESSIONS ividing the eastern andSpacemail: liqiang299A western halves of the world and is v@GreatAdventureSery uspaceStation.com eful for navigation. It pass15/11/3008(es throughEarthtime) Greenwich, so Pingyu had Dear Mum and Dad, I still cannot b a photo taken standelieve that I am taking up thising on either side of the line. The last prize that I won last day she visit year. I haved karl Marxe to remind myss statue in Highelf constantgate Cemetly that I am rery.e first few days. As a result, I suffered from time lag. This is similar to the jet lag you get from flying, but it seems you keep getting flashbacks from your previous time period. So I was very nervous and uncertain at first. However, my friend and guide, Wang Ping, was very understanding and gave me some green tablets which helped a lot. Well-known for their expertise, his parents company, calledFuture Tours, transported me safely into the future in a time capsule. I can still remember the moment when the space stewardess called us all to the capsule and we climbed in through a small opening. The seats were comfortable and after a calming drink, we felt sleepy and closed our eyes. The capsule began swinging gently sideways as we lay relaxed and dreaming. A few minutes later, the journey was completed and we had arrived. I was still on the earth but one thous I had a oundingsime lag were difficult flashback and saw th to tolerate. The air seemed thin, as though its combe area again as it had been in the year AD 200ination of gases8. I realized that I h had little oxad been transygen left. Hit by a lack of freshported into the futur aire of what, my head ached. was still my hometown! Just as I tried t Then I caught so make the necessaright of Wang Ping again andy adjustment to this new s flew after him. Arrituation, Wang Ping appeared.iving at a strange-looking house, he showedPut on this mask, he advised. me into a larItll make you feel much bge, bright clean retter.oom. It had a green wall, a brown floor and s He handed it to me and immediately hurried me through to a small roft lighting. Suddenly the wall movoom nearbed it was mady for a rest. I felte of trees! bett I found later in no ter that thime. Soon I was back on my feet again and flowing heir leaves provided the room with much-needed oxim to collect a hovygen. Then Wang Ping flashering carriage drived a switch on a computen by computer. These carrer screen, andiages float a table and some chairs r above the ground and bose from undery bending or press the flooring down in your as if by magic. seat, you can movWhy not sit down and eat a little?e swiftly. Wang Ping fast he sened my said. You may find thisafety belt and sh difficult asowed me how t it is o usyoure it. Soon I could fly as first time travel trip. Just fast as him. relax, since ther However, I lost sight of Wang Ping when we reachede is nothing planned on the timetable today. what looked like a large market Tomorrow youll be ready for some visits. because of too many carriages Having said this, h flying be spread some food on the ty in all directions. He was sw, I hadpad a br of the receivief meal and a hot ber. It quick, efficientath. Exhausted, I slid and envir into bonmented and fell fast asally friendly. Thleep.e only limitat More news later from yourion is if the user does lov noting son, Li Q think hising or her message clearly, an unclear message may bI HAVE SEEN AMAZING THINGS e sent. But we cannot blame the tools for the faultsMy first visit was to a space station cons of the user, can we?idered the most moder During the explanation I lookedn in space. Described at th ase pair an enor of small objectsmous round plat callede, it sthoughjtpadspins slowly in space to imitat on a table. They just looked like metal ribbons. So ordinary bute the pull of the earths gravity. Inside was an exhibition of th so powerful! While I wase most up-to-date invent observing thionsem, the path of the 31st moved us on. century. A guid G: And now ladiese(G) showed us and gent around along a moveable path.lemen, we are in the env G: Good morning to all our vironment area. People usedisitors to collect from 2 waste in dustbins. Th008. First were going ten tho examine one of the late rubbish was sent to be buried or burest forms of communicatned, am I rion among our sight?(We nodded.)pace citizens. No more typists working on a typewriter Well, now thers a system where the waste is disposed or computer! of using the principles of ecology. A giant No more postage or postcodes! Messages machine, always gr can now be seedy forent using a more, swallows all the wthoughtpad You place thaste available. The rubbishe metal band over your h is turned into sevead, clear youreral gr mind, pradesess th of use seful materending button, think your mesial, such asfertilizer, and everything, even plastic bags, is recycled. A great idea, isnt it? I stared at the moving model of the waste machine, absorbed by its efficiency. But again we moved on. G: Our third stop shows the changes that have happened to work practices. Manufacturing no longer takes place on the earth but on space stations like this one. A group of engineers programmer robots to perform tasks in space. The robots produce goods such as drugs, cloth5

es, furniture, hovering carriages, etc. There is no waste, no pollution and no environmental damage! However, the companies have to train their representatives to live and work in space settlements. They have to monitor the robots and the production. When the goods are ready theyre transported by industrial spaceship back to earth. My mind began to wander. What job would I do? My motivation increased as I thought of the wonder4 MY FIRST WORK ASSIGNMENT unforgettable, says new journalist Never will Zhou Yang (ZY) forget his first assignment at the office of a popular English newspaper. His discussion with his new be e ed fors Unit to of the North of England, andueen Elizabeth I. Therfollowed St Paul Cathedral built It seemed strange that the man who had developed communiseally in AD 3008 . Worried about the journey, I was unsettled for thand years in the future.What would I find? At first my new surrept up into thcentre of them. Just at that momentable, and produced a bfrom the floor. After he leftsage and the next instant itsent. Its stored on the thought for the fields and souldeserts. Nothing is wastedful world of the future. oss, Hu Xin (HX), was

第二章项目提出的背景及必要性

第一节项目提出的背景

太阳能是太阳内部连续不断的核聚变反应过程产生的能量，与煤炭、石油、天然气、核能等矿物燃料相比，太阳能无穷无尽，即可免费使用，又无需运输，同时不会对环境造成任何污染，作为一种新型绿色能源可以广泛应用在取暖、制冷、发电、海水淡化等众多领域。其中，通过转换装臵把太阳辐射能转换成电能利用的属于太阳能光发电技术，由于光电转换装臵主要利用半导体器件的光伏效应原理进行光电转换的，因此又称光伏技术。

一、世界再生能源需求形势

能源是经济和社会发展的重要物质基础。工业革命以来，世界能源消费剧增，煤炭、石油、天然气等化石能源资源消耗迅速，生态环境不断恶化，特别是温室气体排放导致日益严峻的全球气候变化，人类社会的可持续发展受到严重威胁。近年来，受石油价格上涨和全球气候变化的影响，可再生能源开发利用日益受到国际社会的重视，许多国家提出了明确的发展目标，制定了支持可再生能源发展的法规和政策，希望可再生能源能够改变人类的能源结构，维持长远的可持续发展。

可再生能源之中太阳能以其独有的优势而成为人们重视的焦点。丰富的太阳辐射能是重要的能源，是取之不尽、用之不竭的、无污染、廉价、人类能够自由利用的能源。太阳能每秒钟到达地面的能量高达80万千瓦，假如把地球表面0.1%的太阳能转为电能，转变率5%，每年发电量可达5.6×1012千瓦小时，相当于目前世界上能耗的40倍。

太阳能作为一种重要的可再生能源，其开发和利用已成为各国可持续发展战略的重要组成部分。国际上普遍认为，在长期的能源战略中，太阳

能光伏发电在太阳能热发电、风力发电、海洋发电、生物质能发电等许多可再生能源中具有更重要的地位。这是因为光伏发电有无可比拟的优点：（1）充分的清洁性；（2）绝对的安全性；（3）相对的广泛性；（4）确实的长寿命和免维护性；（5）初步的实用性；（6）资源的充足性及潜在的经济性等。

世界不少发达国家在可再生能源规划中，均重点考虑太阳能电池发电。美国能源部每年投入约1亿美元光伏研究发展基金，日本“新阳光计划”，欧盟“可再生能源白皮书”都把光伏作为首先发展项目。德国、丹麦、法国、西班牙等国采取优惠的固定电价收购可再生能源发电量，英国、澳大利亚、日本等国实行强制性市场配额政策，美国、巴西、印度等国实行投资补贴和税收优惠等政策。大力发展太阳能产业。

目前，我国已成为世界能源生产和消费大国，但人均能源消费水平还很低。随着经济和社会的不断发展，我国能源需求将持续增长。增加能源供应、保障能源安全、保护生态环境、促进经济和社会的可持续发展，是我国经济和社会发展的一项重大战略任务。在我国现有能源供给的约束条件下，我国面临着能源供需结构性矛盾，能源自给安全压力以及巨大的环保压力。发展替代能源，实现传统能源之间、传统能源和新能源之间的替代是解决我国能源供需瓶颈，供需结构性矛盾以及减轻环境压力的有效途径。

我国政府对新能源和可再生能源的发展十分重视，2006年2月9日，国务院出台了《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》中明确提出：到2020年，可再生能源在我国能源结构中的比重将达到16%。2007年9月5日国家发改委颁布了《可再生能源中长期发展规划》规划在城市的建筑物和公共设施配套安装太阳能光伏发电装臵，扩大城市可再生能源的利用量，并为太阳能光伏发电提供必要的市场规模。到2010年，太阳能发电总容量达到30万千瓦，到2020年达到180万千瓦。光伏发电将在中国未来的电力供应中扮演重要的角色，根据电力科学院的预测，到2050 年中

国可再生能源发电将占到全国总电力装机的25%，其中光伏发电占到5%。近期，国家新能源发展规划进行调整，预计到2020年，我国新能源发电装机2.9亿千瓦，约占总装机的17%。其中，太阳能发电装机将达到2000万千瓦。该政策将明确规定：“光伏电价将根据不同光照条件给予1.09-1.20元/千瓦时的固定电价。”

在今后的十几年中，太阳能电池的市场走向将发生很大的改变，中国光伏发电的市场将会由独立发电系统转向并网发电系统，包括沙漠电站和城市屋顶发电系统。光伏发电将作为战略能源的主要角色进入能源和电力供应领域，在不久的将来，中国的光伏发电必然会起到越来越重要的作用。

二、世界光伏产业技术发展及趋势

作为绿色能源的代表，从20世纪70年代起，全球就兴起了开发利用太阳能的高潮。开发利用太阳能和可再生能源成为国际社会的一大主题和共同行动，成为各国制订可持续发展战略的重要内容。这一时期，各国加强了太阳能研究工作的计划性，取得了大批科研成果，国际间的合作也十分活跃。我国政府自“六五”计划以来，一直把研究开发太阳能和可再生能源技术列入国家科技攻关计划，大大推动了我国太阳能产业的发展，并在《中国21世纪议程》，进一步明确了太阳能为重点发展项目。在这种大环境下，20多年来，太阳能利用技术在研究开发、商业化生产、市场开拓方面都获得了长足发展，成为世界快速、稳定发展的新兴产业之一。其中技术进步是降低光伏发电成本、促进光伏产业和市场发展的重要因素。几十年来围绕着降低成本的各种研究开发工作取得了显著成就，表现在电池效率不断提高、硅片厚度持续降低、产业化技术不断改进等方面，对降低光伏发电成本起到了决定性的作用。

三、光伏发电的优势和未来的主导地位

世界能源问题列为世界10大焦点问题（能源、水、食物、环境、贫穷、恐怖主义及战争、疾病、教育、民主和人口）之首。2006 年全球人口已经突破65亿，能源需求折合成发电装机容量为14.5TW，每日能耗

220×106BOE；2050年全世界人口将达到90～100亿，按每年人均GDP增长1.6%、单位GDP能耗按照每年减少1％计算，届时折合电力装机容量接近60TW，每日能耗将高达450×106BOE～900×106BOE，届时主要靠可再生能源来解决。可是，世界上潜在水能资源4.6TW，经济可开发量只有0.9TW；风能实际可开发资源2TW；生物质能3TW。只有太阳能是唯一能够保证人类能源需求的能量来源，其潜在资源120000TW，实际可利用资源高达600TW。（注：TW＝109kW，来源：美国能源部Office of Science 报告.2005.4）因此太阳能是替代潜力最大的可再生能源技术，在未来能源结构占据着十分重要的地位。

根据欧洲联合研究中心（JRC）的预测，太阳能光伏发电在未来世界能源结构中占据着最重要的地位，成为未来世界能源的主体。到2030年可再生能源在总能源结构中占到30％以上，太阳能光伏发电在世界总电力的供应中达到10%以上；2040年可再生能源占总能耗50％以上，太阳能光伏发电将占总电力的20%以上；到本世纪末可再生能源在能源结构中占到80％以上，太阳能发电占到60％以上，显示出光伏发电的重要战略地位。

在国际光伏市场巨大潜力的推动下，中国光伏产业正以每年30%的速度增长，2005年中国太阳能电池生产总量达到139MW，较2004年猛增了179%，2006年达到400MW，从而超过美国成为全球第三大生产国，产能则达到惊人的1180MW。以3年产量增长45倍，产能增加125倍而成为全球发展最快的国家。

太阳能电池发电具有清洁、无污染、安全、取之不尽、用之不竭的特点。在当今世界资源短缺、环境污染和生态恶化的情况下，开发我国丰富的太阳能等清洁可再生能源特别是太阳能光伏电池组件产业，以替代煤炭、石油等日益紧缩的化石能源，是实现可持续发展的必由之路。

光伏科技公司通过太阳能光伏项目的建设，致力于研制、生产和销售太阳能光伏产品的完整产业链发展，选用国际上最先进的技术和设备、最

具竞争力的规模和现代化的管理模式，通过引进、消化、吸收和再创新，沿着国际化、专业化和规模化的道路和方向实施本项目，有利于促进中国光伏产业的快速发展，有利于促进我国能源和环境可持续发展。

第二节项目建设的必要性

一、项目符合我国国家产业、宏观经济政策及国民经济发展规划 2006年1月1日起施行的《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》规定：第二条本法所称可再生能源，是指太阳能、风能、水能、生物质能、地热能、海洋能等非化石能源。第四条国家将可再生能源的开发利用列为能源发展的优先领域……. 第十七条国家鼓励单位和个人安装和使用太阳能热水系统、太阳能供热采暖和制冷系统、太阳能光伏发电系统等太阳能利用系统。

2007年9月5日国家发改委颁布的《可再生能源中长期发展规划》指出：发挥太阳能光伏发电适宜分散供电的优势，在偏远地区推广使用户用光伏发电系统或建设小型光伏电站，解决无电人口的供电问题。在城市的建筑物和公共设施配套安装太阳能光伏发电装臵，扩大城市可再生能源的利用量，并为太阳能光伏发电提供必要的市场规模。

2006年2月9日，国务院《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》中规定：高性价比太阳光伏电池及利用技术为重点领域中的优先发展主题之一。

《国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》提出：大力发展可再生能源，实行优惠的财税、投资政策和强制性市场份额政策，鼓励生产与消费可再生能源，提高在一次能源消费中的比重。积极开发利用太阳能、地热能和海洋能。

项目符合《产业结构调整指导目录(2005年本)》目录中鼓励类第四款第5条“风力发电及太阳能、地热能、海洋能、生物质能等可再生能源开

发利用”规定。

二、我国太阳能资源丰富

中国是一个能源生产大国，也是一个能源消费大国。随着经济和社会的不断发展，我国能源需求将持续增长，我国的常规能源储量远远低于世界的平均水平，大约只有世界总储量的10%，要增加能源供应、保障能源安全、保护生态环境、促进经济和社会的可持续发展，必须大力发展可再生能源。在新的可再生能源中，光伏发电和风力发电是发展最快的，也是各国竞相发展的重点。

我国地处北半球，土地辽阔，幅员广大，国土总面积达960万平方公里。有着丰富的太阳能资源。全国各地的年太阳辐射总量为928－2333KWh/m2，中值为1626kWh/m2。中国绝大多数地区年平均日辐射量在4 kWh/m2.天以上，西藏最高达7 kWh/m2.天。与同纬度的其它国家相比，和美国类似，比欧洲、日本优越得多。约占全国总面积的2/3 以上地区，年太阳辐射总量高于5000 MJ/m2，年日照时数大于2000h，具有利用太阳能的良好条件。

我国的是太阳能资源相当丰富，具有发展太阳能光伏发电事业的良好条件，太阳能产业在我国有着广阔的发展前景。

三、项目建设符合山东省发展规划

《山东省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》指出：加大新能源产业化的研究、开发和建设力度，鼓励支持风力、生物质能、太阳能和地热等再生能源、洁净能源项目建设，实施能源的阶梯型开发。

《山东省高技术产业发展“十一五”规划》指出：加快发展以核能、太阳能、风能为重点的新能源产业。依托骨干企业，加快对太阳能中高温热利用、光伏发电和电站、太阳能电池等关键技术的产业化，并进一步拓宽太阳能的应用领域。

本项目致力于从铸硅锭、切片至太阳能电池组件出品的完整光伏产业链的研发、生产及销售，所有产品都将通过UL，IEC和TUV的国际认证。

光伏科技公司将相关质量管理体系作为公司行为准则，并以雄厚的技术力量和先进的检测设备为支撑，为客户提供快捷的服务和完善的光伏系列产品的设计方案。

因而本项目的建设是十分必要的。

drugs, clothes, furniture buildings had expanded around it, it remained part of a royal palace and prison combined. To her great surprise, Zhang Pingyu found the Queen jewels Unit 3 FIRST IMPRESSIONS ividing the eastern andSpacemail: liqiang299A western halves of the world and is v@GreatAdventureSery uspaceStation.com eful for navigation. It pass15/11/3008(es throughEarthtime) Greenwich, so Pingyu had Dear Mum and Dad, I still cannot beats were comfortable and after a calming drink, we felt sleepy and closed our eyes. The capsule began swinging gently sideways as we lay relaxed and dry magic. seat, you can movWhy not sit down and eat a little?e swiftly. Wang Ping fast he sened my said. You may find thisafety belt and sh difficult asowed me how t it is o usyoure it. Soon I could fly as first time travel trip. Just fast as him. relax, since ther However, I lost sight of Wang Ping when we reachede is nothing plannedion among our sight?(We nodded.)pace citizens. No more typists working on a typewriter Well, now thers a system where the waste is disposed or computer! of using the principles of ecology. A giant No more postage or postcodes! Messages machine, always gr can now be seedy forent using a more, swallows all the wpace settlements. They have to monitor the robots and the production. When the goods are ready theyre transported by industrial spaceship back t4 MY FIRST WORK ASSIGNMENT unforgettable, says new journalist Never we e ed fors Unit to er. It was built long ago by the Norman invaders of AD 1066. Fancy! This solid stone, square tower had remained standing for one thousand years. Although th guarded by special royal soldiers who, on special occasions, still wore the four-hundred-year-old uniform of the time of Queen Elizabeth I. Ther day the girl visited Greenwich and saw its old ships and famous clock that sets the world time. What interested her most was the longitude line. It is an imaginary line d a photo taken standing on either side of the line. The last day she visited karl Marxs statue in Highgate Cemetery. It seemed strange that the e felt very proud of her country. The next day Pingyu was leaving London for Windsor Castle. Perhaps I will see the Queen? she wondered as she fell asleep. elieve that I am taking up this prize that I won last year. I have to remind myself constantly that I am really in AD 3008 . Worried e in a time capsule. I can still remember the moment when the space stewardess called us all to the capsule and we climbed in through a small opening. The seaming. A few minutes later, the journey was completed and we had arrived. I was still on the earth but one thousand years in the future.im to collect a hovering carriage driven by computer. These carriages float above the ground and by bending or pressing down in your what looked like a large market because of too many carriages flying by in all directions. He was swept up into thovided the room with much-needed oxygen. Then Wang Ping flashed a switch on a computer screen, and a table and some chairs rose from under the floor as if b on the timetable today. Tomorrow youll be ready for some visits. Having said this, he spread some food on the table, and produced a be(G) showed us around along a moveable path. G: Good morning to all our visitors from 2008. First were going to examine one of the latest forms of communicatthoughtpad You place the metal band over your head, clear your mind, press the sending button, think your message and the next instant itnd now ladies and gentlemen, we are in the environment area. People used to collect waste in dustbins. Then the rubbish was sent to be buried or burned, am I raste available. The rubbish is turned into several grades of useful material, such asfertilizer for the fields and soule, hovering carriages, etc. There is no waste, no pollution and no environmental damage! However, the companies have to train their representatives to live and work in so earth. My mind began to wander. What job would I do? My motivation increased as I thought of the wonderful world of the future. ill Zhou Yang (ZY) forget his first assignment at the office of a popular English newspaper. His discussion with his new boss, Hu Xin (HX), was

第三章市场分析与建设规模

第一节世界太阳能光伏产业市场需求分析

一、世界光伏产业及市场发展概况

在全球气候变暖、人类生态环境恶化、常规能源资源短缺并造成环境污染的形势下，太阳能光伏发电技术普遍得到各国政府的重视和支持。在技术进步的推动和逐步完善的法规政策的强力驱动下，光伏产业自1990年代后半期起进入了快速发展时期。最近10年，太阳能电池产量由1997年的125.8 MWp增加到2007年的4000.05MWp，年平均增长率为41.3%；最近5年，由2002 年的536.8MWp增加到2007年的4000.05MWp，年平均增长率达到了49.5％。特别是自2004 年德国实施了经过修订的“上网电价法”以来，市场需求急剧扩大，光伏产品供不应求。快速发展的光伏市场起到对光伏产业的强力拉动作用，导致了太阳级硅材料近年来严重短缺。尽管如此，2006 和2007 年太阳能电池/组件的年增长率仍然分别达到42.9％和56.2%。

1999－2007 年世界太阳能电池产量的变化

1、世界太阳能电池的年发货量和累计用量

由于产业和市场间的供不应求关系，由此可根据光伏组件发货量计算光伏市场的发展概况。截止2007年底，世界累计生产了12.64GWp 太阳能电池，考虑到发货量与安装量间有一定的滞后以及各种原因，光伏发电的实际总装机容量应该接近12GWp，这个数据远远超过以前的预测。表1 过去10 年世界太阳能电池/组件的年发货量和累计用量（GWp）

年累计用量年发货量年增长率（%） 1998 0.946 0.155 23.1 1999 1.147 0.201 29.6 2000 1.434 0.288 43.3 2001 1.825 0.374 30.1 2002 2.386 0.537 43.5 2003 3.130 0.747 39.2 2004 4.330 1.2 60.8 2005 6.09 1.79 49.3 2006 8.65 2.56 42.9 2007 12.64 4.00 56.2 2、世界主要国家和地区的光伏电池/组件产量

2006年按照光伏电池产量大小依次为：日本、德国、中国、美国、中国台湾、欧洲其他、亚洲其他和世界其余国家。2007年，中国可再生能源学会光伏专业委员会统计的中国（ML）光伏企业生产的太阳能电池组件的产量已经达到了1088MWp，这个数字已经已经超过了PVNews 公布的日本的产量，也超过了其公布的欧洲的产量。

2006、2007年亚洲太阳能电池产量约占世界太阳能电池产量的65%。所以亚洲是太阳能电池的主要生产和输出地区。而亚洲的太阳能电池生产主要在中国大陆、中国台湾和日本。2006年日本、中国大陆和中国台湾的太阳能电池产量分别占世界的36.23％、17.1%和6.62%，而2007年中国大陆、中国台湾和日本的太阳能电池产量分别占世界的27.2％、9.2%和23％。从产量来看，我国已经成为太阳能电池的第一生产国。

表2 2006、2007 年不同国家和地区太阳能电池产量及份额

国家和地区日本中国（ML）中国（TW）德国欧洲其他美国世界其它合计 2006 年产量，MWp 926.9 438.0 169.5 508.0 172.3 179.6 166.9 2561.2 比例，％ 36.19 17.10 6.62 19.83 6.73 7.01 6.52 100 2007 年产量，MWp 920.0 1088.0 368.0 810.0 252.8 266.1 295.15 4000.05 比例，％ 23.00 27.20 9.20 20.25 6.32 6.65 7.38 100 3、世界不同地区和国家的光伏市场及份额

2006 年世界光伏市场的排序则和各国生产量有着很大不同：德国光伏市场占世界市场份额的51％，其余依次为：日本20％、美国10%、欧洲其他国家9％、亚洲其他国家3.63％，中国0.57％，世界其他国家5.8%。从中不难看出光伏产品的主要流向以及世界不同国家和地区光伏市场的启动程度。根据Solarbuzz LLC.年度PV工业报告的信息，2007年世界光伏市场比2006年增长了62％，统计的安装量为2826MWp。其中德国的光伏市场在2007 年的安装量为1328MWp，占世界光伏市场的总量47％，已经连续三年为世界之首，西班牙安装了640MWp，为世界第二，日本安装230MWp，世界第三，美国市场市场增加了57％达到220MWp，为世界第四。

2006、2007年欧洲光伏市场分别占世界光伏市场的约60％和71%，欧洲不但是世界最大的光伏市场，而且在持续增长，这主要因为欧洲大部分国家实施了“上网电价法”，使欧洲光伏市场得到了非常有效的启动。这进一步证明“上网电价法”是迄今为止全球所采取的启动光伏市场中最有效、最科学的举措。

2006、2007年亚洲的光伏市场分别占世界市场的约25％和15％，市

场份额明显在缩小。主要原因是，亚洲的光伏市场主要在日本，而日本已经结束了政府补贴政策，日本虽然仍然是亚洲最大的光伏市场，但总量有所减少，加上世界总量在扩大，导致亚洲光伏市场所占比例明显缩小。

4、年世界各类太阳能电池产量

表3 2001－2006 年世界各类太阳能电池产量，单位：MWp

年份单晶硅电池多晶硅电池薄膜电池总计 2001 133 205.1 36 374.1 2002 183 323.8 30 536.8 2003 237 467 43 747 2004 409 727 65 1201 2005 672 1013.9 107 1792.9 2006 1141 1229.7 191 2561.7 2007 1651 1999 350 4000 5、并网发电的应用比例愈来愈大

世界光伏产业和市场发展的另一个突出特点是：并网发电的应用比例愈来愈大，从本世纪开始已经成为光伏发电的主导市场（独立光伏系统包括通讯和信号、特殊商业和工业应用、农村离网系统、消费品、大型独立电站等）。表4给出并网光伏发电市场份额逐年增长的情况。2006、2007 年欧洲的并网光伏系统比例达到95％以上，世界平均达到80%以上，说明光伏发电在能源中正在发挥着愈来愈大的替代作用。不仅如此，并网光伏发电在整个可再生能源技术中也是增长最快的技术，成为世界最关注的可再生能源之一。

表4 并网光伏发电市场份额逐年增长情况

年份 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 份额 (％) 7.9 21.3 23.5 29.9 41.7 50.4 51.4 55.5 65.9 ～70 ～75 ～80 二、光伏发电的发展前景和预测

太阳能光伏发电具有最广阔的发展前景，是各国着力发展的可再生能源技术之一。世界许多权威组织的预测、发达国家和地区的发展路线图以及计划的实施情况给予了最有力的说明。

1、国际能源组织（IEA）对未来光伏发电的预测

国际能源组织（IEA）对太阳能光伏发电的未来发展作出如下预测：2020年世界光伏发电的发电量占总发电量的1％，2040年占总发电量的20％。

2、欧洲光伏工业协会（EPIA）对光伏发电的预测

EPIA对光伏发电的预测为：2020 年世界太阳能光伏组件年产量将达到40GWp，光伏发电总装机容量195GWp，发电量274TWh，占全球发电量的1％，太阳能电池的组件成本下降到1美元/ Wp；2040年光伏发电量7368TWh，占全球发电量的21％（Renewable Energy World，2003）。

3、世界光伏发电发展路线图

表5是美、欧、日及预测的世界光伏发电路线图（累计光伏系统安装量）。2020年世界的光伏发电累计装机容量将达到200 GWp，其中美、日、欧安装总量超过世界总量的50％。随着光伏市场和产业的快速发展，光伏发电的成本也随之下降并逐步接近和达到常规发电成本的水平，表6为美国、日本和欧洲在2004年左右对光伏发电成本下降的预测。近年来光伏发电发展速度比以前任何时候预测的要快得多，因此光伏发电成本的下降速度也比以前预测的要快，尽管近年来多晶硅材料短缺减缓了的成本下降速度。如预测的那样，随着常规发电成本的不断提高，到2020 年后光伏发电与常规发电相比，完全具有竞争能力。

表5 美欧日太阳能光伏发电路线图及世界光伏发电预测

(累计光伏系统安装量，GWp) 年度美国欧洲日本世界总计（AIP） 2000 0.15 0.15 0.25 1.0 2010 2.1 3.0 4.8 14.0 2020 36 41 30 200 2030 200 200 205 1850 注：数据来源：Japanese，US，EPIA and EREC 2040 scenarios（EREC - European Renewable Energy Council，EPIA- European Photovoltaic Industry Agency，AIP - Advanced International Policy Scenario）

表6 光伏发电成本预测

年日本（Yen/KWh）欧洲（Euro/KWh）美国（Cents/KWh） 2004 30 0.25 18.2 2010 23 0.18 13.4 2020 14 0.10 10.0 综上所述，世界各种权威机构对可再生能源替代速度和光伏发电未来前景的的预测具有高度一致性。我们有理由相信这些预测结果具有很高的科学性和可信度，因而具有重要的参考价值。这些预测充分说明可再生能源替代化石燃料的紧迫性和必然性，说明光伏发电未来的重要战略地位。

4、世界光伏发电未来5 年预测

2007年Michael Rogol 等人根据最近两年的发展情况对未来5 年（2007－2011）世界光伏电池/组件产量、年增长率、组件平均售价和平均系统安装价格做出了最新预测（solar Annual 2007），预测结果如表7和图2 所示。该预测超出以前曾经作出过的预测，其中2010 年光伏电池/组件的年产量超过15GWp，比5 年前路线图（表5）中2010 年的累计安装量14GWp还多。这些信息使我们对未来形势估计有很大参考意义。

从图2的预测中可以看出，薄膜电池产量逐年增加，2010年达到2GWp，占当年总产量15.1GWp的13.2％，显示出薄膜电池的发展潜力。太阳级硅材料的短缺和薄膜电池产业化技术渐趋成熟无疑会促进薄膜电池的产业化进程。2007年太阳能电池的实际产量4 GWp，与预测值完全一致，薄膜电池的实际产量为350MWp，仅为图2中预测值（0.7GWp）的一半，说明对薄膜电池的估计过于乐观，对此需要冷静分析。

表7 光伏发电未来5 年（2007－2011）的预测（solar Annual 2007）

年太阳能电池产量(GWp) 年增长率，% 全球组件平均销售价格($/Wp) 全球平均系统安装价格($/Wp) 2005 1.7 44 3.7 7.1 2006 2.6 58 4.3 7.8 2007 4.0 53 4.1 7.5 2008 6.1 54 3.8 7.0 2009 10.2 66 3.7 6.6 2010 15.1 48 3.5 6.2 2011 20.5 36 3.3 5.9

图2 未来5 年光伏产业发展预测（solar Annual 2007）

第二节我国太阳能光伏产业市场需求分析

中国太阳能资源十分丰富，理论总储量为147×10'GWh/年。而作为一个人口大国，以煤炭为主的传统资源人均能源资源不足世界水平的一半，目前尚有约30000个村庄，700万户，3000万农村人员还没有用上电，60%的有电县严重缺电。要实现2020年国内生产总值比2000年翻两番的目标，全国能源消费量将至少比2000年翻一番，能源供需矛盾将进一步加剧。因此无论从能源安全的长远战略角度出发，还是从调整和优化能源结构需求考虑，大力发展光伏发电都是保障我国能源安全的重要战略措施之一，光伏市场有巨大潜力。

一、我国光伏产业发展状况

整个光伏产业链是由超纯硅材料制造、硅锭/硅片生产、太阳能电池制造，光伏组件封装以及光伏发电系统建设等多个产业环节组成，以下对整个光伏产业链的各个环节发展状况分别予以介绍。

1、多晶硅材料产业发展概况

迄今为止，晶硅电池仍然占据着光伏市场的主导地位，截至2007年，晶硅电池的市场份额仍高达91.25％，因此制造晶硅电池的基本材料－太阳级多晶硅－是光伏产业链上最重要的环节之一。

光伏市场拉动着多晶硅材料产业的快速发展。由于多晶硅产量的增长落后于光伏产业链其他环节的增长，导致2004年以来世界范围内多晶硅原材料的持续紧缺，使太阳级硅材料成为光伏产业发展的主要制约因素和瓶颈。目前，多晶硅材料生产基本上掌握在发达国家的10 家生产商手中。

下图为2004－2007年多晶硅的实际产量及2008－2015年的预测产量，根据预测，2010年和2015年世界多晶硅产量将分别达到12万吨和40万吨，考虑到薄膜电池的发展以及每MWp电池硅材料用量的逐渐减少，2010年后太阳级硅材料会逐渐满足光伏产业发展的需求。

2004－2007 年世界多晶硅的产量及2008－2015 年的预测solar Annual 2007

在国内外光伏市场需求的拉动下，中国多晶硅产业自2005年以来发展迅速。2007年我国共计生产了1130吨（含上海棱光20吨），至此，中国多晶硅产业突破了年产千吨大关，在中国多晶硅产业发展史上具有标

太阳能电池片及组件项目可行性研究报告书.doc 将本文的Word文档下载到电脑下载失败或者文档不完整，请联系客服人员解决！

下载这篇word文档