参考资料
[1]张晓峒. 应用数量经济学. [M]. 北京：机械工程出版社，2009. [2]庞皓. 计量经济学. [M]. 北京：科学出版社，2006.
[3]张晓峒. EViews使用指南与案例. [M]. 北京：机械工程出版社，2007.
An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in China
Liu Zhongli
(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
Abstract: The paper makes empirical research on the relationship between inflation, GDP, Currency, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Fixed asset investment with the Multiple Regression Model, which shows that GDP and currency increment are main factors lead to inflation in China. Policy recommendations about price level stabilization are also proposed in the article.
Keywords: Inflation; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy; Multiple Regression Model
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附录
i.
数据
Y
100.39489 98.89159 99.38199 99.58026 99.66496 98.17626 98.75930 99.15444 100.54046 98.44136 99.81841 102.33429 103.56281 103.24871 104.90490 104.69478 106.25379 104.87737 105.82274 106.35100 107.29778 106.86784 107.40121 109.34078 110.87360 111.53940 114.23545 116.53401 120.15167 119.55115 119.55103 118.00236 118.70719 117.52379 118.58386 120.00888 121.32243 120.71485 122.65645 125.49808 128.01754
X1
10.05619 10.15235 10.19867 10.42931 10.14155 10.23872 10.29943 10.52610 10.27027 10.34197 10.41812 10.65711 10.41693 10.51828 10.58562 10.81799 10.57431 10.66420 10.70871 10.97301 10.72142 10.82204 10.85731 11.14147 10.91064 11.02260 11.06823 11.35871 11.10170 11.21444 11.24567 11.48266 11.09354 11.21340 11.26388 11.72064 11.30986 11.42100 11.47023 11.77007 11.47534
X2
12.62670 12.65957 12.68752 12.71106 12.74595 12.78438 12.82559 12.86621 12.92334 12.98182 13.03746 13.06764 13.10823 13.14198 13.15075 13.17366 13.21510 13.23452 13.24380 13.26953 13.31613 13.36375 13.39515 13.41448 13.46707 13.51559 13.55182 13.57118 13.61323 13.65154 13.68680 13.70730 13.81562 13.90632 13.96116 13.98821 14.04674 14.09283 14.13106 14.16778 14.19880
X3
102.73000 49.91000 149.26000 164.01000 154.40000 151.58000 158.67000 277.77000 296.03000 304.66000 373.87000 193.88000 365.71000 308.17000 438.99000 953.94000 492.12000 518.29000 580.31000 498.68000 561.98000 660.45000 468.13000 784.12000 1356.91000 1305.94000 1009.86000 946.38000 1539.28000 1266.51000 967.57000 404.45000 77.11000 1778.65000 1409.89000 1265.57000 479.32000 71.91000 1940.28000 1990.35000 1973.36000
X4
7.84784 8.75902 8.85244 9.38490 8.09061 8.96697 9.06931 9.48445 8.40706 9.26805 9.34487 9.68849 8.86199 9.60140 9.69180 9.93266 9.10905 9.84852 9.94148 10.17941 9.35948 10.11698 10.14690 10.36067 9.58491 10.35883 10.37876 10.57559 9.81558 10.59961 10.63187 10.78512 10.06739 10.90662 10.91651 11.01801 10.30202 11.13100 11.12464 11.23249 10.58317
2001年1季度 2001年2季度 2001年3季度 2001年4季度 2002年1季度 2002年2季度 2002年3季度 2002年4季度 2003年1季度 2003年2季度 2003年3季度 2003年4季度 2004年1季度 2004年2季度 2004年3季度 2004年4季度 2005年1季度 2005年2季度 2005年3季度 2005年4季度 2006年1季度 2006年2季度 2006年3季度 2006年4季度 2007年1季度 2007年2季度 2007年3季度 2007年4季度 2008年1季度 2008年2季度 2008年3季度 2008年4季度 2009年1季度 2009年2季度 2009年3季度 2009年4季度 2010年1季度 2010年2季度 2010年3季度 2010年4季度 2011年1季度
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ii.
Eviews操作记录
LS Y C X1(-1)
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 06/07/11 Time: 05:13 Sample (adjusted): 2 41
Included observations: 40 after adjustments
Variable
C X1(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient -91.80260 18.60797
Std. Error 9.248581 0.853217
t-Statistic -9.926128 21.80918
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 109.7210 8.975419 4.697601 4.782045 4.728134 1.615661
0.926018 Mean dependent var 0.924071 S.D. dependent var 2.473190 Akaike info criterion 232.4334 Schwarz criterion -91.95203 Hannan-Quinn criter. 475.6402 Durbin-Watson stat 0.000000
LS Y C X2(-1)
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 06/07/11 Time: 05:13 Sample (adjusted): 2 41
Included observations: 40 after adjustments
Variable
C X2(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient -147.6601 19.28603
Std. Error 10.77742 0.807123
t-Statistic -13.70087 23.89478
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 109.7210 8.975419 4.527371 4.611815 4.557904 0.408131
0.937599 Mean dependent var 0.935956 S.D. dependent var 2.271394 Akaike info criterion 196.0508 Schwarz criterion -88.54743 Hannan-Quinn criter. 570.9603 Durbin-Watson stat 0.000000
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LS Y C X3(-1)
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 06/07/11 Time: 05:26 Sample (adjusted): 2 41
Included observations: 40 after adjustments Variable C X3(-1) R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient Std. Error 101.7489 0.011891
1.557321 0.001803
t-Statistic 65.33588 6.594579
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 109.7210 8.975419 6.538663 6.623107 6.569195 0.856839
0.533676 Mean dependent var 0.521405 S.D. dependent var 6.209247 Akaike info criterion 1465.080 Schwarz criterion -128.7733 Hannan-Quinn criter. 43.48848 Durbin-Watson stat 0.000000
LS Y C X4(-1)
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 06/07/11 Time: 05:27 Sample (adjusted): 2 41
Included observations: 40 after adjustments
Variable
C X4(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient 17.59613 9.358874
Std. Error 7.720742 0.781489
t-Statistic 2.279072 11.97569
Prob. 0.0284 0.0000 109.7210 8.975419 5.738325 5.822769 5.768857 1.510624
0.790538 Mean dependent var 0.785026 S.D. dependent var 4.161480 Akaike info criterion 658.0807 Schwarz criterion -112.7665 Hannan-Quinn criter. 143.4172 Durbin-Watson stat 0.000000
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LS Y C X1(-1) X2(-1) X3(-1) X4(-1)
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 06/07/11 Time: 05:29 Sample (adjusted): 2 41
Included observations: 40 after adjustments
Variable
C X1(-1) X2(-1) X3(-1) X4(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient -128.8200 10.21876 10.59049 0.001384 -1.461954
Std. Error 15.17874 2.710323 2.112281 0.000755 1.018538
t-Statistic -8.486869 3.770312 5.013768 1.832852 -1.435346
Prob. 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0753 0.1601 109.7210 8.975419 4.180573 4.391683 4.256904 0.604238
0.962030 Mean dependent var 0.957691 S.D. dependent var 1.846171 Akaike info criterion 119.2921 Schwarz criterion -78.61146 Hannan-Quinn criter. 221.6966 Durbin-Watson stat 0.000000
LS Y C X2(-1) X1(-1)
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 06/07/11 Time: 05:32 Sample (adjusted): 2 41
Included observations: 40 after adjustments
Variable
C X2(-1) X1(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient -128.9228 11.04998 8.418929
Std. Error 10.30556 2.190590 2.126748
t-Statistic -12.51002 5.044295 3.958593
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 109.7210 8.975419 4.224235 4.350901 4.270033 0.428122
0.956164 Mean dependent var 0.953795 S.D. dependent var 1.929304 Akaike info criterion 137.7220 Schwarz criterion -81.48469 Hannan-Quinn criter. 403.5292 Durbin-Watson stat 0.000000
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