汇率论文：人民币升值对我国农产品进出口的影响
【中文摘要】汇率是本币与外币交换的比率。从汇率对进出口商品的作用机制来看,本币升值会使该国的贸易收支恶化；反之,本币贬值则会有利于该国的贸易收支的改善。就我国而言,在人民币不断升值的背景下,其最直接的作用机制是使得农产品进出口价格发生变化,表现为出口价格上升、进口价格下降；间接的影响到我国农村经济的发展、农民生活水平的改善、农产品在国际市场上的竞争力的等等。我国农产品的进出口受人民币升值的速度、不同种类的农产品的价格弹性、不同种类的农产品在国际市场上的优势、我国农产品的进口商和出口商对人民币的升值趋势作出的预期、人民币实际升值对农产品进出口的影响等各种因素的作用,这些因素有的会给我国农产品的进出口带来有利的影响,有的会带来不利的影响,而对综合作用的考察,则需要具体的数据进行客观分析。本文主要根据汇率影响进出口贸易的相关理论,通过对我国人民币汇率和农产品进出口数据进行研究整理,结合现有的文献研究结论,选取2005年7月汇改以来到2010年6月为止的相关经济数据,构建模型,运用计量软件,对人民币升值对我国农产品进出口的影响进行实证分析。首先对我国人民币汇率的发展历程进行了介绍：人民币汇率的发展历程经历了三个阶段：第一阶段是1981年至1993年的双重汇率制度时期；第二阶段从1994年至2005年7月的单一、相对固定的汇率制度时期；第三阶段是2005年7月至今的以市场为基础、有管理的浮动汇率制度时期。接着介绍了汇率
影响进出口贸易的相关理论,包括物价-现金流动机制、弹性分析法、吸收分析法、乘数分析法和货币分析法。其中重点介绍了马歇尔-勒纳的价格弹性理论。接着又介绍了衡量农产品出口竞争力的指标,通过指标值得出我国主要农产品的竞争力状况。在前述介绍的基础上,利用2005年7月到2010年6月间60个月的人民币汇率值和我国农产品进出口的月度额,进行人民币升值对我国农产品进出口影响的实证分析,从数据的选取进行说明,到对人民币汇率和农产品进出口贸易顺差两个随机变量的平稳性检验,得出：在人民币升值的预期对我国农产品进出口的有利影响和人民币实际升值的滞期对我国农产品进出口的不利影响的综合作用下,我国农产品进出口贸易顺差表现为不利影响,也就是说人民币实际升值的滞期对我国农产品进口顺差的不利影响是大于我国农产品进出口商和消费者对人民币升值预期的影响的消化、分解能力。但是从人民币汇率和农产品进出口顺差之间的相关系的绝对值大小上看,这种综合影响并不显著。在这样思路的指导下,本文最后对在人民币不断升值背景下,如何提高我国农产品进出口贸易顺差提出一些政策和意见,这为政府制定政策提高我国农产品贸易顺差提供了理论参考。
【英文摘要】Currency and foreign currency’s exchange rate is the rate of exchange. Under normal circumstances, the devaluation will improve the trade balance; otherwise trade will reduce the balance of payments deficits or surpluses. Therefore, if the yuan revaluation will lead to increased
agricultural imports and exports decreased, not conducive to China to improve conditions for agricultural trade, affecting the development of agriculture and increase farmers income levels will also affect China’s agricultural products’competitiveness in international market, but this impaction on the price of agricultural products can resole by improving quality and productivity of agricultural labor and other means;The RMB revaluation’s impaction on agricultural trade is relevant with the pace of RMB appreciation, the different types of price elasticity of agricultural products, different types of international comparative advantage in agricultural products, expectations of RMB appreciation on China’s import and export trade of agricultural products, the real
appreciation on the delayed impact of agricultural trade, and many other factors.The combined effect of these factors, RMB appreciation on trade in agricultural products will have a positive role in promoting or reverse the suppression effect is difficult to determine, and must use the actual change in the data for empirical analysis.This article mainly on the basis of exchange rate influence import-export trade’s correlation theories, through conducts the research and reorganize to our country RMB rate and the agricultural product
import and export data, unifies the existing literature search conclusion, selects in July,2005 until June’s 2010 related economic data, constructs the model, utilizes the measurement software, carries on the empirical to analyze the RMB revaluation to our country agricultural product import’s and export’s influence. First introducing the development pross of our country’s RMB rate. The process process may divided into three stages:The dual rate of currency exchange system time (1981-1993 years)、the single and relatively fixed time (1994-2005 year in July、take the market as the foundation and folating time (in July, 2005 later). In different time, RMB rate have dissimilar influence to import-export trade. Then introduced the theories about exchange rate how to influent import-export trade.Including price-cash flow mechanism, elastic analytic method, absorption analytic method, multiplicator analytic method and currency analytic method. And introducing the Marshall-Lenard’s price flexibility theory with emphasis. Then introducing the target on agricultural product export competition, through the value to weigh the competition of our country’s main agricultural product.On the basis of formly introduction, with the rate values and agricultural product import and export monthly volume from July
2005 to June 2010, carries on the empirical analysis between RMB revaluation with our country agricultural product import and export.First explaning the data, then testing the stability about the two vabiable. Have the conclusion of under the combined influence of the anticipation and the lagged anticipation,the revaluation have the negative influence to our country agricultural product import-export trade. But from the value size looked that this kind of synthesis influence is not remarkable.Under such mentality instruction, this article finally to, in the the background of RMB revaluation,propose some policies and opinions about how to enhance our country agricultural product import-export trade this provide the theory reference for the government policy decision.
【关键词】汇率 农产品 进出口贸易 国际竞争力
【英文关键词】Exchange rate Agricultural products Import-export trade International competitiveness
【目录】人民币升值对我国农产品进出口的影响3-59-149-101111-14
Abstract5-6
目录7-9
摘要
第一章 绪论
1.1 研究背景和意义91.3 研究方法10-111.5 本文的不足之处11
1.2 研究内容1.4 创新点及特色1.6 研究文献
第二章 人民币汇率制度变动与我国农产品进出口贸易