Ѧ¼ÒÕòÊdz£ÖÝÊб±²¿µÄÖØÒª³ÇÕò£¬Êdz£ÖÝÊгÇÕòÌåϵµÄ×é³É²¿·Ö¡£Ñ¦¼ÒÕòµÄ³ÇÕò·¢Õ¹Õ½ÂÔÊ×ÏÈÐèÒªÁ¢×ãÓÚÇøÓò½Ç¶È£¬ÍØÕ¹³ÇÕò¹¦ÄÜ£¬ÔÚ³£ÖÝÊб±²¿µØÇø·¢»Ó¼¯¾ÛºÍ·øÉä×÷Óã¬Ðγɳ£ÖÝÊб±²¿µØÇø¼¯ÂÃÓΡ¢²úÒµ¡¢¾Óס¡¢ÉÌóΪһÌåµÄ×ÛºÏÐÍÖÐÐijÇÕò¡£
4.1.2½¨Éè¾ßÓÐÎüÒýÁ¦µÄ¾Óס»·¾³
Ëæ×ÅеÄÉç»á¾¼Ã±³¾°µÄÐγɺͷ¢Õ¹£¬Ó¦°Ñ»·¾³½¨Éè×÷Ϊ³ÇÕò·¢Õ¹µÄÕ½ÂÔÄ¿±ê£¬Ç¿µ÷ÒÔÈËΪÖÐÐĵľßÓл·¾³ÌØÉ«µÄ×¡Çø½¨É裬ÔöÇ¿ÕòÇø¶ÔÖܱߵØÇøµÄÈ˿ںÍо¼Ã»î¶¯µÄÎüÒýÁ¦¡£
4.1.3¾°¹ÛºÍÉú̬»·¾³Á¼ºÃµÄ³ÇÕò
Ѧ¼ÒÖܱߵØÇøÓÐÒËÈ˵ÄÂÌÉ«»·¾³¡¢ÇåÐÂµÄ¿ÕÆø¡¢ÓÅÖʵĺÓÍøË®Ïµ»·¾³£¬Í¬Ê±ÓµÓзḻµÄÀúÊ·ÎÄ»¯»·¾³¡£´Ó×ÔÈ»ºÍÉç»áÁ½·½ÃæÈ¥´´ÔìÒ»ÖÖÄܳä·ÖÈںϼ¼ÊõºÍ×ÔÈ»µÄÈËÀà»î¶¯µÄ×î¼Ñ»·¾³£¬ÓÕ·¢È˵Ĵ´Ô쾫ÉñºÍÉú²úÁ¦£¬Ìṩ¸ßÖÊÁ¿µÄÎïÖʺÍÎÄ»¯Éú»îˮƽ¡£
4.1.4ËÜÔì³ÇÕòеľ¼ÃÔö³¤µã£¬¼¤·¢³ÇÕòµÄ»îÁ¦
ÊÊӦо¼Ã·¢Õ¹ÐèÒª£¬ËÜÔì³ÇÕòеľ¼ÃÔö³¤µã£¬Ê¹³ÇÕò¼¯¾Û×î¾ßÓлîÁ¦µÄ³ÇÕò¹¦ÄÜÌ壬³ÉΪ¾¼Ã·¢Õ¹µÄ¶¯Á¦ºÍ´´Ð»ùµØ¡£
´«Í³²úÒµµÄתÐÍ¡ª¡ªÊÊÓ¦Êг¡»¯µÄÆóÒµ×ªÖÆÓë²úÆ·¿ª·¢¡¢×¢ÖØË½ÓªÆóÒµºÍСÆóÒµµÄ»îÁ¦¡¢¹¤ÒµµÄÔ°Çø»¯¡¢ÍøÂ绯¡£
µÚÈý²úÒµ¹¦ÄܵÄÅàÓý¡ª¡ªÒÔÂÃÓκͷ¿µØ²úҵΪÁúÍ·£¬È«ÃæÌáÉý³ÇÕò½¨ÉèµÄƷ棬¸ßÆðµã½¨Éè³ÇÕò»·¾³£¬´Ù½øÅ©¡¢¹¤¡¢ÉÌ¡¢Ã³È«Ãæ·¢Õ¹£¬ÐγÉÁ¼ÐԵIJúҵѻ·¡£
4.2¹æ»®ÔÔò
4.2.1ÇøÓòÐÔÔÔò
ÈÚÈëÇøÓò»·¾³£¬ÊµÏÖ³ÖÐø·¢Õ¹¡£Ñ¦¼ÒµÄ·¢Õ¹±ØÐëÔÚÇøÓòµÄ¿ò¼ÜÄÚÃ÷È·×ÔÉí¶¨Î»£¬·¢»Ó×ÔÉíÓÅÊÆ£¬ÊµÏÖ¿ìËÙ·¢Õ¹¡£´Ó¹ãÓò·¶Î§ÄÚ·ÖÎöѦ¼ÒÕòµÄ·¢Õ¹£¬ÔöÇ¿¹æ»®µÄÇøÓò¹ÛÄîºÍÕûÌ徺ÕùÁ¦£¬»ý¼«ÈÚÈë³£ÖÝÊгÇÕòÐÂÒ»ÂÖ·¢Õ¹Ö®ÖУ¬½¨ÉèΪ³£ÖÝÊеijÇÕòÌåϵ½¨ÉèÖеı±²¿ÃÅ»§ÖØÕò£¬Ä±ÇóÒÔ´óÇøÓòΪ±³¾°µÄ³ÇÕòÕûÌå·¢Õ¹¡£
4.2.2е÷ÔÔò
ÕûºÏ×ÊÔ´£¬ÕûÌå·¢Õ¹£¬¸ù¾Ý¡°Èý¸ö¼¯ÖС±µÄÔÔò£¬Ðµ÷ÇøÓò¹ØÏµ£¬ÕûºÏ×ÊÔ´£¬ÒÀÍпƼ¼½ø²½ºÍ¿Æ¼¼´´Ð£¬´Ù½øÑ¦¼Ò¾¼ÃÏò¼¯Ô¼»¯·¢Õ¹£¬¸Ä±ä¹ýÈ¥¾¼Ã´Ö·ÅʽÔö³¤Ä£Ê½£¬ÊµÏÖ¾¼Ã³ÖÐø·¢Õ¹¡£
16
4.2.3¿É³ÖÐø·¢Õ¹ÔÔò
×¢ÖØÉú̬»·¾³µÄ±£»¤£¬½ÚÔ¼ÍÁµØ×ÊÔ´£¬Ìá¸ßÍÁµØÊ¹ÓÃÐ§Òæ£¬ÒÔÈËΪ±¾£¬´´Ôì°²Äþ¡¢·½±ã¡¢ÓÅÃÀ¡¢ÊæÊʵÄÉú»î»·¾³ºÍÁ¼ºÃµÄÉú̬»·¾³¡£½«¾¼ÃÔö³¤¡¢Éç»á½ø²½Óë»·¾³±£»¤½áºÏÆðÀ´£¬ÊµÏÖ³ÇÕòµÄ¿É³ÖÐø·¢Õ¹¡£
4.2.4¶¯Ì¬ÐÔÔÔò
¼á³Ö¸ßÆðµãºÍ¸ß±ê×¼£¬³ÇÕòÓõز¼¾Ö¿ÆÑ§ºÏÀí£¬³ÇÕò½¨ÉèÓлúе÷£¬ÊÊÓ¦³ÇÕò²»Í¬½×¶ÎµÄ·¢Õ¹ÐèÇó¡£
¹æ»®µÄ³¤Ô¶ÐÔºÍÏÖʵÐÔÏà½áºÏ£¬×öµ½¡°¸ßÆðµã¡¢Ô¶Ä¿±ê¡¢ÖØÊµ¼Ê¡¢¿É²Ù×÷¡±¡£¾ßÌå¶øÑÔ£¬´ÓÓÅ»¯³ÇÕò×ÜÌå¿Õ¼ä²¼¾Ö½á¹¹µÄ½Ç¶È£¬°ÑѦ¼ÒÕò½üÆÚ¸÷¾ßÌ彨ÉèÏîÄ¿µÄ°²ÅÅÓëÔ¶ÆÚµÄ³ÇÕò½¨ÉèÄ¿±êÏà½áºÏ¡£
4.2.5ÌØÉ«ÔÔò
³ä·Ö·¢¾òѦ¼ÒÕòµÄ×ÔÈ»ÉúÌ¬ÌØÉ«¡¢Éç»áÀúÊ·ÎÄ»¯ÌØÉ«µÄ½¨É裬²¢Ôڹ滮ÖмÓÒÔÀûÓã¬ËÜÔì¾ßÓÐÇ¿Áҵط½ÌØÉ«µÄ³ÇÕò¡£´´Ôì¸ßÆðµãµÄÌØÉ«²úÒµºÍÌØÉ«ÎÄ»¯£¬ÔÚ¾¼Ã·¢Õ¹¡¢Éç»á½ø²½ºÍ³ÇÕò½¨ÉèµÈ¸÷¸ö·½Ãæ²úÉúÎüÒýÁ¦£¬Íƽø³ÇÕòÈ«ÃæÐµ÷·¢Õ¹¡£
µÚÎåÕ ³ÇÕòÐÔÖÊÓë¹æÄ£
5.1 ³ÇÕòÐÔÖÊ
×ۺϷÖÎöºÍ¿¼ÂǸ÷·½Ìõ¼þ£¬½«Ñ¦¼ÒÕò¹æ»®Îª£º³ÇÏçÒ»ÌåµÄ£¬ÈË¡¢×ÔÈ»¡¢³ÇÊкÍгµÄ¹¤Ã³Ð³ÇÕò¡¢ÌØÉ«Éú̬³ÇÕò¡£
5.2 ³ÇÕò¹æÄ£
5.2.1 È˿ڹæÄ£ ÏÖ×´È˿ڣº
2009ÄêĩȫÊÐÓл§¼®ÈË¿Ú359.8ÍòÈË¡¢³£×¡ÈË¿Ú445.2ÍòÈË£¬·Ö±ð±ÈÉÏÄêÄ©Ôö0.3%ºÍ1%£»·ÇũҵÈË¿ÚΪ178.31ÍòÈË£¬Õ¼»§¼®È˿ڵÄ49.56%¡£È«ÊÐÔÝסÈË¿Ú132.1ÍòÈË£¬ÆäÖÐÔÝס1ÄêÒÔÉÏÈË¿Ú46.3ÍòÈË£¬·Ö±ð½µ13.2%¡¢11.5%¡£³öÉúÈË¿ÚËØÖÊÎȲ½Ìá¸ß£¬³öÉúÈË¿ÚÐÔ±ð±È±£³ÖÕý³££¬È«Êмƻ®ÉúÓýÂÊ´ï98.9%¡¢¶ÀÉú×ÓÅ®ÂÊΪ81.7%£»È«Êе±Äê³öÉúÈË¿Ú26142ÈË¡¢ËÀÍöÈË¿Ú27577ÈË£¬×ÔÈ»Ôö³¤ÂÊΪ-0.4¡ë£¬»úеÔö³¤ÂÊΪ3.891¡ë¡£
ÕòÇøÈË¿ÚÔ¤²â£º
17
¸ù¾Ý³£ÖÝÊÐÈË¿Úͳ¼ÆÏÔʾ£¬Ñ¦¼ÒÕòδÀ´ÈË¿ÚÔö³¤±íÏÖΪÁ½¸öÖ÷ÒªÌØÕ÷£¬¼´×ÜÈ˿ڵĻºÂý¼õÉٺͷÇũҵÈË¿ÚËùÕ¼±ÈÀýµÄÔö³¤¡£
×ÜÈ˿ڵĻºÂý¼õÉٺͷÇũҵÈ˿ڵÄÔö³¤ÊǺͳ£ÖݳÇÊн¨Éè·Ö²»¿ªµÄ£¬³£ÖÝÊеijÇÊл¯½ø³ÌÕýÔڼӿ죬³ÇÊл¯Ë®Æ½Ìá¸ß±Ø½«µ¼ÖÂÖÜΧũ´åµØÇøÈË¿ÚÖð²½Ïò³ÇÊкÍÖÐÐijÇÕò¼¯ÖС£´ÓδÀ´µÄ·¢Õ¹Ç÷ÊÆÉÏ¿´£¬µÚ¶þ¡¢Èý²úÒµµÄ³ÖÐø·¢Õ¹½«½øÒ»²½ÎüÒý¸ü¶àµÄÅ©´åÈË¿ÚÏò³ÇÕò¼¯ÖС£
Ô¤²â·½·¨Ò»£º
¼ÙÉè³£ÖÝÊÐ×ÜÈ˿ڰ´ÕÕͬ×ÔÈ»Ôö³¤ÂÊ»úеÔö³¤ÂÊÖðÄêÔö³¤£¬Ôò×ÜÈË¿ÚÔ¤
²âÊýѧģÐÍΪ£º
Pn£½Po¡Á£¨1+ k)^n + p
ʽÖУºPn¡ª¡ª¹æ»®ÆÚÈË¿ÚÊý£¨ÍòÈË£© Po¡ª¡ªÏÖ×´»§¼®ÈË¿ÚÊý£¨ÍòÈË£© D¡ª¡ª×ÛºÏÔö³¤ÏµÊý£¨¡ë£© n¡ª¡ª¹æ»®ÄêÏÞ P¡ª¡ª»úеÈË¿ÚÔö³¤Êý
ÒÔ2009ÄêΪ»ùÄ꣬µ½2030Äê³£ÖÝÊÐ×ÜÈË¿ÚÊýΪ£º P=359.8¡Á(1-0.4¡ë)^21+£¨3.891¡ë+1£©^21¡Á85.4 P=449.446£¨ÍòÈË£©
Èç¹ûÒÔѦ¼ÒÕòÈË¿ÚÕ¼×ÜÈ˿ڱÈÂʲ»±ä£¬Ôò:
2030ÄêѦ¼ÒÕòÈË¿Ú=449.446¡Á1.51%=6.7866£¨ÍòÈË£©
Ô¤²â·½·¨¶þ£º»Ø¹é·ÖÎöÔ¤²â·¨
¼ÙÉèÈË¿ÚÔö³¤Óëʱ¼äÖ®¼ä´æÔÚÏà¹Ø¹ØÏµ£¬ÔòÈË¿ÚÊÇʱ¼äµÄº¯Êý¡£Êýѧ±í´ïΪ£º
Y£½f(x)
ÆäÖУºY¡ª¡ªÈË¿ÚÊý x¡ª¡ªÊ±¼ä
¸ù¾Ý1949ÄêÖÁ1999Äê³£ÖÝÊÐÈË¿Úͳ¼ÆÊý¾Ý£¬¼ÙÉèÈË¿ÚÔö³¤Óëʱ¼äÖ®¼äΪÏßÐÔÏà¹Ø¹ØÏµY£½f(x)£½a-bx¡£
¶ÔÈË¿Ú×ö¹ØÓÚʱ¼äµÄ»Ø¹é·ÖÎö£¬¿ÉÒԵõ½È˿ڵļÆË㹫ʽ£º
Y=3.3322x+181.13 µ¥Î»£ºÍòÈË
18
ÆäÖÐY----¹æ»®ÆÚÄ©ÈË¿Ú x----¾à1949ÄêÄêÊý ¸ù¾ÝÄ£ÐͼÆËãµÃ£º
2030ÄêÈ˿ڣºx=82£»Y=3.3322x+181.13 =3.3322*82+181.13 =454.3704£¨ÍòÈË£© Èç¹ûÒÔѦ¼ÒÕòÈË¿ÚÕ¼×ÜÈ˿ڱÈÂʲ»±ä£¬Ôò:
2030ÄêѦ¼ÒÕòÈË¿Ú=454.3704¡Á1.51%=6.8610£¨ÍòÈË£©
¸ù¾ÝÁ½ÖÖ·½·¨×ۺϣ¬È¡Æ½¾ùÊý£¬Ôò:
2030ÄêѦ¼ÒÕòÈË¿Ú=£¨6.7866+6.8610£©/2=6.8238 (ÍòÈË£©
5.2.2 ÓõعæÄ£
¸ù¾Ý¡¶³£ÖÝÊÐ×ÜÌ广»®¡·¶ÔÏØÓò³ÇÕòºÍ²úÒµµÄÓõز¼¾ÖºÍ¹æÄ£µÄÒªÇó£¬ÒÔ¼°Ñ¦¼ÒµÄ³ÇÕò¼¶±ð¡¢ÏÖ×´ÕòÇøÈ˿ڹæÄ£ºÍÔ¤²âµÄÈ˿ڹæÄ££¬È·¶¨ÖÁ2030Ä꣬Ѧ¼ÒÕòÇø¹æ»®½¨ÉèÓõعæÄ£Îª5.8ƽ·½¹«Àï¡£
µÚÁùÕ ³ÇÕòÓõز¼¾Ö½á¹¹
¹æ»®Ñ¦¼ÒÕò³ÇÕòÓõØ×ÜÌå²¼¾Ö·½°¸Îª¡°Ò»ÐÄ¡¢Á½Öá¡¢ÈýƬ¡±µÄ½á¹¹¡£
6.1Ò»ÐÄ
¡°Ò»ÐÄ¡±¼´³ÇÕò¹«¹²ÖÐÐÄ£¨Ñ¦¼ÒÖÐÐĹ㳡£©¡£³ÇÕò¹«¹²ÖÐÐĽ«½¨³ÉÈ«ÕòµÄ¹ÜÀí¡¢ÎÄ»¯ºÍÉÌÒµÖÐÐÄ¡£¸ÃÖÐÐĽ«¼¯ÖгÇÕòÖ÷ÒªµÄÉÌÒµ½ðÈÚ¡¢ÉÌÎñÐÐÕþ°ì¹«µÈÉèÊ©£¬ÉèÖÃÂÌ»¯¡¢¹ã³¡£¬ÖÐÐÄÇøµÄµÀ·ÓëÖÜΧ³ÇÕòµÀ·ÏàÁ¬£¬°ÑÉú̬ºÍÊÐÃñ»î¶¯ÒýÈëÄÚ²¿£¬ÐγÉÕæÕý¼¯¾ÛÈËÃǸ÷ÖÖ¹«¹²»î¶¯µÄ³ÇÕòÖÐÐÄ¡£
Ѧ¼ÒÕòµÄ³ÇÕòÖÐÐľßÓÐÇøÓòÐԵķþÎñ¹¦ÄÜ£¬²»½öΪѦ¼ÒÕòÄÚ²¿·þÎñ£¬¶øÇÒΪÖܱߵØÇø·þÎñ¡£³ÇÕòÖÐÐĵĽ¨ÉèÊÇÇ¿»¯ÖÐÐijÇÕòµÄ¼¯¾ÛÓë·øÉ书ÄÜ¡¢ÌáÉýÕûÌ幦ÄÜÐÎÏóµÄ¹Ø¼ü¡£
´«Í³µÄѦ¼ÒÕò³ÇÕòÉÌÒµÖÐÐÄÒѾßÓÐÒ»¶¨µÄ¹æÄ££¬Ò˽øÐÐÕûÖκÍÐÞÉÉ£¬²¢Í»³ö´«Í³·çò¡£
δÀ´µÄгÇÕò¹«¹²ÖÐÐĽ«½¨³ÉÈ«ÕòµÄÎÄ»¯ºÍÉÌÒµ·þÎñÖÐÐÄ¡£¿¼ÂÇ·þÎñµÄ¶ÔÏóºÍÖÐÐÄÇøµÄ¹æÄ££¬Ç¿µ÷ÎüÒýÁ¦¡¢×ۺϷþÎñ¹¦ÄÜ¡¢¸ßÖÊÁ¿µÄ·þÎñÉèÊ©ºÍ·þÎñˮƽ£¬ÈçÍ»³öÂÃÓΡ¢ÐÝÏй¦ÄܵķþÎñÉèÊ©µÈ£¬Í¬Ê±Ç¿µ÷³ÇÕòÐÂÇøÖÐÐĵľ°¹Û·çò¡£Ê¹³Ç
19
ÕòÖÐÐÛÈËÆø¡¢Õ¹ÏÖ³ÇÕòÌØÉ«¡£²»½öÊdzÇÕò¹«¹²»î¶¯µÄ¾Û¼¯µØ£¬Ò²ÊÇ×ÖÐչʾгÇÕò·çòµÄµØÇø¡£
6.2Á½Öá
¡°Á½Öᡱ¼´Ò»Ìõ¶«Î÷Ïò³ÇÕò·¢Õ¹ÖáºÍÒ»ÌõÄϱ±Ïò³ÇÕò·¢Õ¹Öá¡£ ¶«Î÷Ïò³ÇÕò·¢Õ¹Ö᣺
³ÇÕòÓõØÖ÷񻄯¶«Î÷ÏòµÀ·»ÆºÓÂ·ÍØÕ¹£¬¼¯ÖÐÁ˳ÇÕòµÄÖ÷ÒªÐÐÕþ¡¢ÎÄ»¯¡¢ÉÌÒµ·þÎñµÈÉèÊ©¡£
Äϱ±Ïò³ÇÕò·¢Õ¹Ö᣺
ÊÇָѦ¼ÒÕòÇøÄϱ±Ö÷ÒªµÀ·ÓñÁú·£¬ÊdzÇÕòÄϱ±Ïò·¢Õ¹µÄÖ÷Öá¡£
ͨ¹ýÁ½ÌõÖáÏßÒÔ¼°Æä¼äµÄ¾°¹Û½Úµã½¨É裬ͻ³öѦ¼ÒÕòµÄ´«Í³·çÃ²ÌØÉ«ºÍÐÂÐ˵ijÇÕò·çÃ²ÌØÕ÷¡£
6.3ÈýƬ
¡°ÈýƬ¡±¼´£ºÉú»îÉÌó×ۺϷ¢Õ¹Çø¡¢ÄϹ¤Òµ¼¯ÖÐÇø¡¢±±Å©´åµØÇø¡£ 6.3.1Éú»îÉÌó×ۺϷ¢Õ¹Çø
±¾Çø¼¯ÖÐÁËѦ¼ÒÕòµÄÖ÷Òª½ÌÓýÉèÊ©¡¢Ö÷ÒªµÄÒ½ÁÆÉèÊ©ÒÔ¼°ÕòÕþ¸®µÈÖØÒª¹«¹²ºÍ»ù´¡ÉèÊ©¡£±¾Çø¶¨Î»ÎªÉú»îÆ¬Çø£¬ÒÔÐÂÐË·¿µØ²ú¿ª·¢ÎªÖ÷£¬Í¬Ê±½øÒ»²½ÍêÉÆÏÖ×´µÄÉú»îÓõء¢ÉÌÒµ·þÎñÉèÊ©¡£·ÖÉ¢ÀÏÕòÇøµÄ¾ÓסÈ˿ںÍÎüÒýÅ©´åÈË¿ÚÏò³ÇÕò×ªÒÆ£¬Íƶ¯Õû¸öµØÇø³ÇÊл¯½ø³Ì£¬²¢´ø¶¯Õû¸öѦ¼ÒÕò¾¼ÃµÄ·¢Õ¹¡£
6.3.2ÄϹ¤Òµ¼¯ÖÐÇø
²úÒµ·¢Õ¹ÒÔÏÖÓвúҵΪ»ù´¡£¬²¢½øÒ»²½Ç¿»¯Ç°ºóÏò²úÒµ·¢Õ¹£¬ÍØÕ¹ÏÖÓеIJúÒµÁ´¡£È·¶¨¹¤ÒµÇøµÄÖ÷ÒªÖ°ÄÜÓ¦°üÀ¨£º²úÒµ¼°²¿·ÖÅäÌ×ÉèÊ©£»²úÒµ¼°²¿·ÖÅäÌ×ÉèÊ©£»²úÒµÒÔµç×ÓÐÅÏ¢¡¢»úÐµÖÆÔìºÍ·ÄÖ¯ÒÔ¼°Ïà¹ØÅäÌײúÒµÎªÌØÉ«¡£
6.3.3±±Å©´åµØÇø
Ѧ¼ÒÕò±±Æ¬Îª¹ã´óµÄÏç´åÅ©ÌïÇøÓò£¬¾ÓÃñµãÁãÉ¢·Ö²¼£¬ÉÐδÐγɺÏÀíµÄ¹æ»® ²¼¾Öģʽ¡£Õë¶ÔÕâÒ»ÎÊÌ⣬¿ÉÒÔ²ÉÈ¡·¢Õ¹Éç»áÖ÷ÒåÐÂÅ©´å½¨ÉèµÄ¾Ù´ë£¬½«ÕâÒ»ÇøÓò·ÖΪ¶«Î÷Á½²¿·Ö£¬½áºÏ×ÊÔ´Ìõ¼þ½¨ÉèÁ½¿é¾ÓÃñÇø£¬Ê¹Å©Ãñ¼¯ÖоÓס£¬ÒԴﵽͳһ²¼¾Ö£¬³ä·ÖÀûÓÃÍÁµØµÄÄ¿µÄ¡£
6.4ÕûÌåÁª¶¯·¢Õ¹
20