2.?资源耗竭及其解决
北京大学环境科学与工程学院
问题?假定，2010年全球石油消耗量25亿吨，已探明储量为900亿吨，请问多少年可以用完？
北京大学环境科学与工程学院
自然资源利用的基本原则?可再生资源的消耗速率小于其再生速率
?不可再生资源的消耗速率小于其替代资源的增长速率
北京大学环境科学与工程学院
资源的稀缺性与资源储量矿种铁矿石铜镍磷煤石油天然气单位亿吨万吨万吨亿吨亿吨亿吨亿m3探明储量1534340005262140493096710261521985年矿产量8.96842.5077.721.5143.3626.6417750静态保证年限1714068921143658全球矿产资源的储量与耗竭状况（1985年）北京大学环境科学与工程学院资源使用年限预测的动态性
?Predictions made in 1950 that world iron ore reserves would be exhausted by 1970; In fact by that date enough reserves had been established to last a further 240years at the then current level of consumption?In 1939, the US Department of the Interior predicted that indigenous oilstocks would be exhausted within 13 years; However, since then additions to reserves have matched the increasing rate of annual production. US proven reserves have remained between 9-15 times greater than production for the last 40years.
Judith??Rees,??1990.??Natural??Resources:??Allocation,??Economics??and??Policy.??P34
北京大学环境科学与工程学院