Nor will these possible concerns exist in a vacuum. He will be taking into account the weather and the condition of the road, the amount of traffic and the capabilities of the car he is driving. But crucially, says Adams, this driver will also be adjusting his behavior in response to what he perceives are changes in risks. If he is wearing a seat belt and his car has front and side air bags and anti-skid brakes to boot, he may in turn drive a bit more daringly.
这些可能的担心也不是孤立存在的。他还要考虑到天气和路况、交通拥挤的程度和所驾车子的性能。但亚当斯说，关键的是这个司机还将根据他对风险变化的判断来调整自己的行为。如果他系上了安全带，而他的车子带有前、侧气囊和防滑刹车系统，他驾起车来可能会更大胆。
4 The point, stresses Adams, is that drivers who feel safe may actually increase the risk that they pose to other drivers, bicyclists, pedestrians and their own passengers (while an average of 80% of drivers buckle up, only 68% of their rear-seat passengers do). And risk compensation is
hardly confined to the act of driving a car. Think of a trapeze artist, suggests Adams, or a rock climber or motorcyclist. Add some safety equipment to the equation- a net, rope or helmet
respectively- and the person may try maneuvers that he or she would otherwise consider foolish. In the case of seat belts, instead of a simple, straightforward reduction in deaths, the end result is actually a more complicated redistribution of risk and fatalities. For the sake of argument, offers Adams, imagine how it might affect the behavior of drivers if a sharp stake were mounted in the middle of the steering wheel? Or if the bumper were packed with explosives. Perverse, yes, but it certainly provides a vivid example of how a perception of risk could modify behavior.
4亚当斯强调说，问题就在于自我感觉安全的司机们实际上对其他司机、骑自行车者、行人和自己车上的乘客来说是更大的危险(平均80％的司机系安全带，而同车后座的乘客只有68％系安全带)。风险补偿绝不仅限于驾车行为。亚当斯说，类似的还有表演高空秋千的艺人、攀岩者或摩托车手。如果在他们的安全等式上增添某种安全装置——比如说分别给他们一张救生网、一根保险绳或一个头盔——这个人可能就会试着做些平时认为很愚蠢的技巧性表演。因此，安全带并非简单、直截了当地减少死亡人数，而是对风险和死亡事故进行了更加复杂的再分配。为了说明其中的道理，亚当斯提出人们可以想象一下，如果在方向盘中间安一个尖头的木桩，司机开车时会受到怎样的影响?或者在保险杠上装满炸药呢?这简直是丧心病狂，是的，不过这确实提供了一个生动的例子，来说明人们如何根据对风险的判断来调整行为。
5 In everyday life, risk is a moving target, not a set number as statistics might suggest.
In addition to external factors, each individual has his or her own internal comfort level with risk- taking. Some are daring while others are cautious by nature. And still others are fatalists who may believe that a higher power devises mortality schedules that fix a predetermined time when our number is up. Consequently, any single measurement assigned to the risk of driving a car is bound to be only the roughest sort of benchmark.
5日常生活中，风险是不断移动的靶子，而并不像统计数据那样是个固定数字。除了外部因素外，每个人对于冒险都有自己内在的安全尺度。有些人天生大胆而有些人天生谨慎，还有些人是宿命论者，他们会认为，有一种更强大的力量设计了死亡时间表，预先确定了我们的死期。因此，对驾车风险做任何单一的测算所得到的肯定只是最粗略的基准数据。
Adams cites, as an example the statistical fact that a young man is 100 times more likely to be involved in a severe crash than is a middle-aged woman. Similarly, someone driving at 3:00 a.m. Sunday is more than 100 times more likely to die than someone driving at 10:00 a.m. Sunday. Someone with a personality disorder is 10 times more likely to die. And let's say he's also drunk. Tally up All these factors and consider them independently says Adams, and you could arrive at. a statistical prediction that a disturbed, drunken young man driving in the middle of the night is 2.7 million times more likely to be involved in a serious accident than would a sober, middle-aged woman driving to church seven hours later.
亚当斯引用了这样的统计事实作例子：青年男子发生严重撞车事故的概率比中年妇女高100倍。同样，在星期天凌晨3点钟驾车的人比同一天上午10点钟驾车的人死亡风险高出100多倍，有人格障碍的人比一般人死亡风险高10倍。亚当斯说，假如这个人还喝醉了，汇总所有这些因素并分别加以考虑，就会得到一个具有统计性的预测：一位心理失常又喝醉酒的青年男子在午夜驾车，7个小时后一位头脑清醒的中年妇女驾车去教堂，前者发生严重交通事故的概率比后者高270万倍。
6 The bottom line is that risk doesn't exist in a vacuum and that there are a host of factors that come into play, including the rewards of risk, whether they are financial, physical or emotional. It is this very human context which risk exists. That is key, says Adams, who titled one of his recent blogs: What Kills You Matters- Not Numbers. Our reaction to risk very much depends on the degree to which it is voluntary (scuba diving), unavoidable (public transit) or imposed (air quality), the degree to which we feel we are in control (driving) or at the mercy of others (plane travel), and the degree to which the source of possible danger is benign (\indifferent (nature) or malign, (murder and terrorism). We make dozens of risk calculations daily, but you can book odds- that most of them are so automatic or visceral- that we barely notice them.
6问题的要点就在于风险并不是孤立存在的，它会受到许多因素的影响，包括承担风险所带来的种种回报——无论是财产方面的、身体方面的，还是情感方面的。这正是风险赖以存在的真实的人类社会。亚当斯说，这才是问题的关键，正如他把近期的一篇博客题目定为《关键的是置人于死地的东西，而不是数字》。我们对风险的反应多半取决于它在多大程度上是自发的行为(如戴水肺潜水)、是不可避免的(如公共交通)、还是强加给我们的(如空气质量)；取决于我们认为在多大程度上是我们能控制的(如驾驶)或是由别人控制的(如乘飞机)；还取决于这种潜在危险在多大程度上是出于好意(如医生的指令)、无意的(如自然因素)或恶意的(如谋杀和恐怖活动)。我们每天要做几十遍风险计算，但是可以确信的是，多数时候人们对风险的计算自然而然或者说是出自本能，以至于我们几乎注意不到我们在做计算。
Unit Nine
THE HOUSING CRISIS GOES SUBURBAN
住房危机走向郊区
迈克尔·格伦沃尔德
在过去的五年里，弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯县的住房价格增长速度是家庭收入增长速度的12倍．今天，该县中等家庭不得不将其收入的54％用于购买位于该县的普通住房；在2000年，这个数字是26％。形势如此严峻，以至于费尔法克斯县最近开始对年收入90，000美元的家庭提供住房补贴；很快，这个数字可能提高到110，000美元。
1 Seventy years after President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared that the Depression had left one-third of the American people \well-clothed and increasingly over nourished. But the scarcity of affordable housing is a deepening national crisis, and not just for inner-city families on welfare. The problem has
climbed the income ladder and moved to the suburbs, where service workers cram their families into overcrowded apartments, college graduates have to crash with their parents, and firefighters, police officers and teachers can't afford to live in the communities they serve.
1富兰克林·罗斯福总统曾经说经济大萧条造成1／3的美国人住房简陋、衣衫褴褛、营养不良，然而70年后的今天，美国人却是穿着考究、营养日益过剩。但是，廉价房稀缺是一场日益加深的民族危机，而不仅仅是依靠福利为生的城市家庭的危机。这个问题已经波及中产阶级，并向郊区蔓延，在那里服务工作者及其家属挤在过于狭小的公寓里，大学毕业生不得不借宿在父母家，而消防队员、警察和教师在他们所服务的社区也买不起房。 2 Home ownership is near an all-time high, but the gap is growing between the Owns and the Own-Nots —as well as the Owns and the Own-80-Miles-From-Work. One-third of Americans now spend at least 30% of their income on housing, the federal definition of an \burden, and half the working poor spend at least 50% of their income on rent, a \The real estate boom of the past decade has produced windfalls for Americans who owned before it began, but affordable housing is now a serious problem for more low- and moderate-income Americans than taxes, Social Security4 or gas prices.
2住房拥有率接近历史最高位，但有房户和无房户之间的差距越来越大，有房户和房子离工作单位80英里远的有房户之间的差距也越来越大。现在，1／3的美国人花费至少30％的收入用于住房，联邦政府将这种情况定义为“无力支付”的负担，而有一半的穷打工仔花费至少50％的收入用于租房，这种情况被称为“极其严重”的负担。在过去10年里，房地产迅猛发展，这使得在此之前就已经购置房产的美国人大赚特赚了一把，但现在廉价房对中、低收入的美国人来说，是一个比税收、社会保险、汽油价格更严重的问题。
3 America used to care a lot about affordable housing. Roosevelt signed housing legislation in 1934 and 1937, providing mortgages, government apartments and construction jobs for workers down on their luck. In 1949, Congress .set an official goaljjf \
living environment for every American family,\offering subsidized rent vouchers to millions of low-income tenants in private housing. For half a century, most housing debates in Washington revolved around how much to expand federal assistance.
3美国曾经非常关注廉价房问题。1934年和1937年，罗斯福签署了住房立法，提供抵押贷款、政府公寓，并为那些穷困潦倒的工人提供建筑工作。1949年，国会树立了官方目标——“让每一个美国家庭都能拥有一个体面的家和宜居环境，”而到了1974年，尼克松总统开始对数以百万计的低收入租户在私有住房方面提供租金补贴凭单。半个世纪以来，在华盛顿发生的大多数住房方面的辩论都围绕着一个主题：即应该在多大程度上扩大联邦政府的资助。
4 But for the past two decades, the only new federal housing initiative has been HOPE VI5, a Clinton administration program that has demolished 80,000 units of the worst public housing and built mixed-income developments in their place. The program has eliminated most of the high-rise hellholes that gave public housing a bad name and has revived some urban neighborhoods. But it has razed more subsidized apartments than it has replaced. 4但在过去20年中，唯一的联邦住房新提案就是HOPE VI，也就是克林顿政府拆毁80,000单位的最差公共住房，重建混合收入寓所来取而代之。该计划已经拆除了大部分高度危险的房子，它们曾使公共住房声名狼藉，并已重建了一些城市的社区。但是它更多的是把享有补贴的公寓房夷为平地而不是取而代之。
5 Overall, the number of households receiving federal aid has flatlined since the early 1990s, despite an expanding population and a ballooning budget. Congress has rejected most of President Bush's proposed cuts, but there has been virtually no discussion of increases; affordable-housing advocates spend most of their time fighting to preserve the status quo. 5总的来说，自90年代初以来，接受联邦援助的家庭数已经降到最低，尽管人口不断增加、预算不断膨胀。美国国会已经拒绝了美国总统布什提出的大部分的削减计划，但几乎没有讨论过增加计划；廉价房的倡导者花费的大部分时间都被用于努力争取保持现状。 6 And it's a tough status quo. Today, for every one of the 4.5 million low-income families that receive federal housing assistance, there are three eligible families without it. Fairfax County has 12,000 families on a waiting list for 4,000 assisted apartments. \one—nobody wants to give it up,\It sounds odd, but the victims of today's housing crisis are not people living in \people who aren't even that lucky.
6而现状真是很艰难。今天，有450万低收入家庭享受联邦住房救助，还有3倍于此的家庭符合被救助资格，却拿不到救助。费尔法克斯县有12,000户家庭在排队轮候4,000套救助公寓。“这太宝贵了，一旦拥有，没有人愿意放弃。”费尔法克斯住房委员会主席康拉德·艾根这样说。这听起来奇怪，但如今住房危机的受害者不是那些已经享受“救助计划”的人，而是那些没那么幸运去享受这个计划的人。
7 Some liberals6 dream of extending subsidies to all eligible low-income families, but that $100 billion-a-year solution was unrealistic even before the budget deficit ballooned again. So even some housing advocates now support time limits on most federal rent aid. The time limits included in welfare reform 10 years ago were controversial, but studies suggest they've helped motivate recipients to get off the dole. And unlike welfare, housing aid is not a federal
entitlement, so taking it away from one family after a few years would provide a break for an equally deserving family.
7一些自由派人士梦想着对所有合格的低收入家庭都给予补贴，但是这个每年要斥资上千亿美元的解决办法很不现实，即便是在预算赤字再度膨胀之前也不现实。因此，即使一些曾经主张住房政策的人，现在也支持对大多数联邦租房救济金实行时间限制。人们对10年前福利改革中所涉及的时限问题有争议，但研究表明，这些时限有助于激励受助人摆脱对福利的依赖。和福利不同的是，住房救济金不是联邦所赋予的权利，因此几年后对一个家庭停止供给意味着给另一个同样需要救济的家庭一个喘息的机会。
8 \sustain the internal contradiction of no limits.\
8“这是显而易见的事，”大卫·史密斯——波士顿的一位廉价房的倡导者说，“你不能让内在矛盾无限地延续。”
9 The root of the problem is the striking mismatch between the demand for and the supply of affordable housing —or, more accurately, affordable housing near jobs. Fifteen million families now spend at least half their income on housing, according to Harvard's
Joint_CenterfOTHousing Studies: many skimp on health care, child care and food to do so. Others reduce their rents by overcrowding, which studies link to higher crime rates, poorer
academic performance and poorer health; Los Angeles alone has 620.000 homes with more than one person per room. Other workers are enduring increasingly long commutes from less expensive communities, a phenomenon known as \
9问题的根源是廉价房的供需，或者更准确地说，工作地点附近的廉价房的供需之间极不协调。据哈佛大学住宅联合研究中心提供的数据，现在有1,500万个家庭至少把他们一半的收入用于支付住房费用；许多人为了住房甚至在医疗保健、照顾儿童和食品等方面节省开支。其他人为了减少租金，居住条件极为拥挤，研究表明，拥挤的居住条件与高犯罪率、学习成绩差、以及健康状况不佳紧密相关；仅洛杉矶就有62万户家庭多人共居一室。其他工作者居住在较为便宜的社区，忍受着越来越长距离的交通往返，这种现象被称为“驾驶以保生活质量”。