[49]Steven R． Mann，Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Statement to the House Committee on International Relations，Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia，July 25，2006( henceforth Mann，Testimony) ．
[50]Lyle Goldstein，“China in the New Central Asia: The Fen ( RMB) Is Mightier than the Sword，”Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 29，no． 1 ( 2005) : pp． 13 － 34; Robert Legvold，ed． ，Thinking Strategically，The Major Powers，Kazakhstan，and the Central Asian Nexus Cambridge，MA: MIT Press，2003; Putin Sees Competition for Influence in Central Asia，Agence France Presse，May 30，2006．
[51]Stephen J． Blank，Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute at the，U． S． Army War College，“U． S． Interests in Central Asia and Their Challenges，”an expanded and revised version of testimony offered to the subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia，House Committee on International Relations，July 25，2006，http: / / www．highbeam． com / doc /1G1 － 167979786． html.
[52]孙太辉: “中亚: 游走于大国之间”，2009 年 7 月 16 日《中国民族报》。
[53]Stephen J． Blank，“Rethinking Central Asian Security”，China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly，Volume 6，No. 2 ( 2008) pp. 23 －39，Central Asia － Caucasus Institute ＆ Silk Road Studies Program，http: / / www. isdp. eu / files / publications / cefq /08 /sb08rethinkingcentral. pdf.
[54]Ibid．
[55]Jim Nicho，l“Central Asia’s security: issues and implications for U． S． Interests”，Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress，Februrary 25，2009． http: / / www． fas． org / sgp / crs / row / RL30294． pdf．
[56]祝政宏: “试论近年来俄美在中亚博弈中的优势与劣势”，《新疆社会科学》，2006 年第 5 期。
感谢中国社会科学院美国研究所所长黄平教授的指导。
Theory Reference of America’s Central Asian Strategy:Alternation
of Certainty and Uncertainty
YANG Hongxi
(China Center for Contemporary World Studies，Beijing 100038，China)
Abstract: Theory can be described as“better”，but never“best”． One the one side，the international relations theory used for analyzing the US strategy towards the Central Asia states has conformity and certainty; On the other hand，there usually exist incomprehensiveness and logical pitfalls． Certain so － called theory involves fatal defect． Even the theory suitable for contemporary situations may also converse since time and place change． US mechanically applied certain international relations theory deducted by some scholars，it accounts for the many mistakes in dealing relations with the Islamic World，including the
Central Asian countries． In the meantime，the uncertainty side of the US’Central Asian Strategy is also reflected，
Key words: US; Central Asian strategy; theory; typicality; certainty; activity uncertainty