Research on Fire Risk Assessment Method of the Large-scale
Markets about the Public Liability Insurance of Fire
Master Candidate：Luo Yongbo Supervisor：Ding Xinguo
ABSTRACT
Recently, the bad safety management causes the big fire accident continuously in the large-scale markets. From the fire accident statistics data, these big fire accidents are related to the owners or the responsibility factors. However, because the limited insured items and low lines of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire, government was undertaking the huge pressure at the following-up treatment of disaster. This kind of condition does not only favor the social stability, but also the sustainable development of economic society. Therefore, when we prevent the disaster and enhance the safety control positively we should display the function of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire fully, speeds up the establishment of compensation mechanism for the third party property damage and the person injures caused by another source of responsibility, that appears extremely urgent and essential.
Insurance companies should upgrade their service standards and give full play as the role of insurance economic levers. It should practice a floating rate according to the various subject matter of insurance, reflecting the purpose of “reward the good and fine the bad”. As the insurance sector, they can have a comprehensive study of the fire risk situation by conducting the fire risk assessment. They do research on how the fire risk will be changing with the changed of the conditions of the outside world, in order to provide a reliable theory for seeking the best safety investment. Its main task is to identify the fire risk factors which are existed in the system accurately, and to do some appropriate assessment about the impact level of the fire risk factors， and to quantify the situation of the fire risk of the evaluated-objects. Through above steps, they can lay out the foundations to measures and programmes. So, How to evaluate the fire risk conditions of shopping malls scientifically is not only good to conduct the fire public liability insurance stability, but to provide technical supports for underwriting. Therefore, it is the impressing problem to be addressed in the insurance industry. It also provides scientific suggestions for formulating a reasonable rate of fire of public liability insurance and telling out the advices of disaster prevention and loss Prevention.
This article is on the careful research about the problems we will meet during the comprehensive process when we carry out the Public liability Insurance of Fire. As follows are the main conclusions:
（1）On the basic of having a comprehensive understanding of the implementation of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire at home and abroad, discussing in detail that the importance
and urgency of the enforcemented implementation of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire at the stage in our country. Discussing the research status, developing trend and the application in the insurance aboat the fire risk assessment methods at home and abroad.
（2）the paper has carried on the analysis to the hazard of market fires, the discussion about the factor system, the evaluation system, single class evaluation, evaluation calculation model and multilevel evaluation mode. And established in this foundation we have established the three level standards system which is about the fuzzy appraisal of large-scale market’ s fire risks which consists of the building’s own security, the fire fighting rescue strength, the scattered system, the personnel characteristic as well as the fire protection management. Subsystem factors were ascertained. Using experts’ research method, the author made sure the weight of the fire evaluation system.
（3）Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can make quantitative assessment on the multi-factors’ system . The quantitative problems and the People's subjective judgements on this issue can be expressed in the way of amout, and to do fuzzy processing. To a certain extent, it can reduce the subjective mistakes and make the evaluation more scientifically. This paper used fuzzy comprehensive method to evaluate the fire risk of Large-scale Markets, has a theoretical and practical significance.
（4）on the basis of assessment research of market fires risks, the author make the further discussion about the tariff of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire, and formulate the scientific and reasonable model of fixing price, which have the practical significant influence on the comprehensive carrying out the Public Liability Insurance of Fire.
（5）through the assessment of fires risks to some market in Wuhan, the author demonstrates the feasibility of the method which proposed. It provides the effective technical support for the insurance company and the control of risk to Large-scale Markets.
Key Words: the Public Liability Insurance of Fire fire risk assessment the tariff the
control of risk
目 录
第一章 绪 论 ................................................................................................................................. 1
§ 1.1 课题的研究背景 ........................................................................................................... 1
1.1.1 我国大型商场火灾形势严峻 ............................................................................... 1 1.1.2大型商场火灾特点 ................................................................................................ 2 1.1.3 火灾公众责任保险的强制推行必要性 ............................................................... 3 §1.2 国内外火灾风险评估方法在保险业中的应用现状 .................................................... 4 §1.3 本文研究内容和意义 .................................................................................................... 5
1.3.1 研究内容 ............................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................................... 6
第二章 常见建筑火灾风险评估方法 ........................................................................................... 7
§ 2.1 火灾风险的相关概念 ................................................................................................... 7 § 2.2火灾风险的度量和容忍度 ............................................................................................ 9
2.2.1 火灾风险的度量 ................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 风险容忍度 ......................................................................................................... 10 §2.3 火灾风险评估方法 ...................................................................................................... 10
2.3.1 定性分析方法 ..................................................................................................... 10 2.3.2 半定量分析方法 ................................................................................................. 11 2.3.3 定量分析方法 ..................................................................................................... 14
第三章 大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标体系建立 ................................................. 19
§3.1 大型商场火灾发展特性 .............................................................................................. 19
3.1.1 火灾起始阶段 ..................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 火灾全面发展阶段 ............................................................................................. 20 3.1.3 火灾熄灭阶段 ..................................................................................................... 20 §3.2 大型商场火灾主要原因 .............................................................................................. 21
3.2.1电气火灾 .............................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2装饰装修违反消防规定 ...................................................................................... 21 3.2.3消防设施缺陷 ...................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4消防意识淡薄 ...................................................................................................... 22 3.2.5公众普遍缺乏消防常识 ...................................................................................... 22 §3.3 大型商场内火灾蔓延途径 .......................................................................................... 22
3.3.1水平方向蔓延 ...................................................................................................... 22 3.3.2火灾通过竖井蔓延 .............................................................................................. 23 3.3.3火灾通过空调系统管道蔓延 .............................................................................. 23 3.3.4火灾由窗口向上层蔓延 ...................................................................................... 23
§3.4 大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标体系的建立 .......................................... 23
3.4.1评估指标建立和选取的原则 .............................................................................. 23 3.4.2大型商场火灾风险评估的一级因素分析 .......................................................... 24 3.4.3大型商场火灾风险评估的二级因素分析 .......................................................... 25 3.4.4风险评估指标体系的建立 .................................................................................. 25 3.4.5风险评估指标的量化 .......................................................................................... 26
第四章 大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估模型研究 ......................................................... 32
§4.1模糊评估理论基础 ....................................................................................................... 32
4.1.1 因素集 ................................................................................................................. 32 4.1.2 评估集 ................................................................................................................. 33 4.1.3 一级模糊综合评判 ............................................................................................. 33 4.1.4 单因素综合评估的计算模型 ............................................................................. 34 4.1.5 计算模型的适用范围 ......................................................................................... 35 4.1.6 多层次模糊综合评估 ......................................................................................... 35 §4.2大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标权重的确定 ........................................... 36
4.2.1权重确定方法的对比分析 .................................................................................. 36 4.2.2专家咨询法 .......................................................................................................... 36 4.2.3评估指标权重确定 .............................................................................................. 37
第五章 火灾公众责任保险的定价模型探讨与研究 ................................................................. 42
§5.1国内外责任保险发展概述 ........................................................................................... 42
5.1.1国外责任保险发展概况 ...................................................................................... 42 5.1.2我国责任保险发展概况 ...................................................................................... 42 §5.2 责任保险的概念与特点 .............................................................................................. 43
5.2.1责任保险的概念 .................................................................................................. 43 5.2.2责任保险的特点 .................................................................................................. 43 §5.3火灾公众责任保险基本内容 ....................................................................................... 44
5.3.1保险对象 .............................................................................................................. 45 5.3.2保险责任 .............................................................................................................. 46 5.3.3责任除外 .............................................................................................................. 46 5.3.4责任限额 .............................................................................................................. 46 §5.4火灾公众责任保险费率厘定 ....................................................................................... 46
5.4.1保险费率的含义与构成 ...................................................................................... 46 5.4.2保险费率厘定的基本原则 .................................................................................. 47 5.4.3火灾公众责任保险费率厘定 .............................................................................. 47 §5.5小结 ............................................................................................................................... 48 第六章 研究模型实例应用 ......................................................................................................... 49
§6.1武汉某大型商场概况 ................................................................................................... 49 §6.2火灾风险评估指标描述 ............................................................................................... 49
6.2.1建筑自身防火系统 .............................................................................................. 49 6.2.2灭火系统 .............................................................................................................. 50
6.2.3安全疏散系统 ...................................................................................................... 51 6.2.4人员疏散系统 ...................................................................................................... 51 6.2.5防火管理系统 ...................................................................................................... 52 §6.3武汉某大型商场火灾风险评估 ................................................................................... 52 §6.4火灾公众责任保险费率厘定 ....................................................................................... 57 §6.5小结 ............................................................................................................................... 58 第七章 结束语 ............................................................................................................................. 60 致 谢 ....................................................................................................................................... 62 参考文献 ....................................................................................................................................... 63