年/季 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 993.1 1673.6 2342.4 3254.4 3904.2 5483.2 5123.6 4942.4 5009.9 6059.3 2 971.2 1931.5 2552.6 4245.2 5105.9 5997.3 6051 6825.5 6257.9 5819.7 3 2264.1 3927.8 3747.5 5951.1 7252.6 8776.1 9592.2 8900.1 8016.8 7758.8 4 1943.3 3079.6 4472.8 6373.1 8630.5 8720.6 8341.2 8723.1 7865.6 8128.2
2、实验步骤
1采用4项移动平均计算第一步：在Excel中，利用移动平均趋势剔除法计算季节指数：○
2将序列的各观察值移动平均值，并对其结果进行中心化处理，得到中心化移动平均值；○
3将○2步计算的每个季节比率的平除以相应的中心化移动平均值，计算出移动平均的比值○
均值除以它们的总平均值，进行季节指数调整。
第二步：将各实际观察值分别除以相应的季节指数，将季节成分从时间序列中分离出来； 第三步：得到剔除季节成分后的时间序列图，并刻画其趋近曲线及其公式.
3、实验结果及分析
年/季节销售额数据4项平均1991|1993.12971.232264.141943.31542.9251992|11673.61713.0521931.51953.12533927.82369.0543079.62653.1251993|12342.42820.32522552.62975.633747.52930.52544472.83278.8251994|13254.43506.82524245.23929.97535951.14480.87546373.14955.951995|13904.25118.425105.95333.57537252.65658.9548630.56223.31996|15483.26618.0525997.36840.938776.17221.77548720.67244.31997|15123.67154.425123.66935.975360516254.749592.26472.61998|18341.2727724942.47231.736825.57425.32548900.17252.31999|15009.96419.47526257.96748.3538016.87046.17547865.66787.552000|16059.37049.925819.76940.3537758.86875.8548128.26941.5
CMA比值1627.9881833.0882161.0882511.0882736.7252897.9632953.0633104.6753392.8253718.44205.4254718.4135037.1755225.9885496.2635941.1256420.6756729.4757031.3387233.0387199.357045.1886595.3386363.656874.87254.357328.5137338.8136835.8886583.9136897.2636916.8636918.7256995.1256908.16908.6751.0280181.0536871.8175111.2264010.8559140.8808261.2690221.4406660.9592011.1416741.4151011.3506870.7750770.9770211.3195511.4526710.8539910.8911991.2481411.2056620.7116750.7272480.9174661.5073421.2133010.6813020.9313621.2127440.7328820.9504831.1623161.1371630.8757830.8319651.1231451.176521季节指数0.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.1993280.8199610.8332311.1474791.199328剔除季节指数后数据2041.0712318.0843422.9832567.7712856.723063.4953265.8563729.4213968.9675094.8635186.245313.8914761.4436127.836320.4657196.1116687.1437197.647648.1597271.2376248.5866149.0725273.37997.97710172.675931.6065948.2587420.9046109.9217510.3996986.4476558.3387389.7376984.4946761.6076777.293
问题九（习题13.9）
1、 实验内容：下表是2002-2007年各月份我国社会消费品零售总额数据（单位：亿元）
月份
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2002 3596.1 3324.4 3114.8 3052.2 3202.1 3158.8 3096.6 3143.7 3422.4 3661.9 3733.1 4404.4 2003 3907.4 3706.4 3494.8 3406.9 3463.3 3576.9 3562.1 3609.6 3971.8 4204.4 4202.7 4735.7 2004 4569.4 4211.4 4049.8 4001.8 4166.1 4250.7 4209.2 4262.7 4717.7 4983.2 4965.6 5562.5 2005 5300.9 5012.2 4799.1 4663.3 4899.2 4935 4934.9 5040.8 5495.2 5846.6 5909 6850.4 2006 2007 6641.6 7488.3 6001.9 70013.7 5796.7 6685.8 5774.6 6672.5 6175.6 7157.5 6057.8 7026 6012.2 6998.2 6077.4 7116.6 6553.6 7668.4 6997.7 8263 6821.7 8104.7 7499.2 9015.3
要求：（1）绘制时间序列图，说明该序列的特点。
（2）利用分解预测法预测2008年各月份的社会消费品零售总额。
2、实验步骤：
第一步：在Excel中将数据输入同一列，并在【插入】中选择散点图对数据进行刻画； 第二步：观察该时间序列的特点；
1采用12项移动平均计算移动平均值，第三步：利用移动平均趋势剔除法计算季节指数：○
2将序列的各观察值除以相应的中并对其结果进行中心化处理，得到中心化移动平均值；○
3将○2步计算的每个季节比率的平均值除以它们心化移动平均值，计算出移动平均的比值○
的总平均值，进行季节指数调整。
第四步：将各实际观察值分别除以相应的季节指数，将季节成分从时间序列中分离出来； 第五步：得到剔除季节成分后的时间序列图，并刻画其趋近曲线及其公式,把数据代入公
式得到出去季节影响的预测值；
第六步：再由上述值乘上季节指数，得到最终预测值。
2、 实验结果
及分析
根据图像分析该序列为复合时间序列。
月份2002|1234567891011122003|1234567891011122004|1234567891011122005|1234567891011122006|1234567891011122007|123456789101112数据3596.13324.43114.83052.23202.13158.83096.63143.73422.43661.93733.14404.43907.43706.43494.83406.93463.33576.93562.13609.63971.84204.44202.74735.74569.44211.44049.84001.84166.14250.74209.24262.74717.74983.24965.65562.55300.95012.24799.14663.34899.249354934.95040.85495.25846.659096850.46641.66001.95796.75774.66175.66057.86012.26077.46553.66997.76821.77499.27488.370013.76685.86672.57157.570266998.27116.67668.482638104.79015.312项移动平均CMA比率3409.2083333435.153466.9833333498.653528.2083333549.9753584.8166673623.6083333662.4333333708.2166673753.4253792.5583333820.1666673875.3333333917.4166673963.6666674013.2416674071.8083334127.9583334181.8833334236.3083334298.4666674363.3666674426.9416674495.8416674556.84623.5333334685.9754741.14802.1916674859.2166674919.6916674984.5333335049.3255121.2755199.8916675307.2166675418.9416675501.4166675584.555677.1583335783.5255877.0916675966.8666676053.256141.456237.3756313.4333336367.56438.05833311772.37511846.4666711921.2916712003.1166712083.812165.9666712252.5666712345.4666712450.9083312557.82512684.166673422.1793451.0673482.8173513.4293539.0923567.3963604.2133643.0213685.3253730.8213772.9923806.3633847.753896.3753940.5423988.4544042.5254099.8834154.9214209.0964267.3884330.9174395.1544461.3924526.3214590.1674654.7544713.5384771.6464830.7044889.4544952.1135016.9295085.35160.5835253.5545363.0795460.1795542.9835630.8545730.3425830.3085921.9796010.0586097.356189.4136275.4046340.4676402.7799105.21711809.4211883.8811962.212043.4612124.8812209.2712299.0212398.1912504.37126211.1417871.0739871.0034410.9696790.9785841.0026640.9883160.9908261.0777341.1269371.1138911.2441541.1875511.0808511.0277271.0033461.0305691.0367861.0130641.0127351.1055241.1506111.129791.2468081.1711281.0919431.031010.9893421.0267321.021591.0092951.0179091.0953311.1497061.1450261.3039551.2383931.0992131.0457731.0255281.0777021.0390191.0152351.0112051.0748281.1305921.0870531.1827521.1695397.6894050.5661410.5614750.5983430.5833870.5771770.5828850.6234970.6664680.648150.71431季节指数1.0614142.16210.8396770.8172720.8464750.8413580.8269210.9277560.8940780.9385220.9204851.0225361.0614142.16210.8396770.8172720.8464750.8413580.8269210.9277560.8940780.9385220.9204851.0225361.0614142.16210.8396770.8172720.8464750.8413580.8269210.9277560.8940780.9385220.9204851.0225361.0614142.16210.8396770.8172720.8464750.8413580.8269210.9277560.8940780.9385220.9204851.0225361.0614142.16210.8396770.8172720.8464750.8413580.8269210.9277560.8940780.9385220.9204851.0225361.0614142.16210.8396770.8172720.8464750.8413580.8269210.9277560.8940780.9385220.9204851.022536除去季节后的数据3681.3141714.264162.0754168.6254091.4394251.3424307.6643890.684442.3424479.8094565.7464631.334305.0111947.8294823.0434896.5354921.7065052.1915090.2054594.6375276.615309.6255394.5495439.9084994.1852318.215715.415705.9355787.7695865.5195967.7985433.3286146.2216229.5826419.4436699.4246257.3112775.9596903.4857065.7037295.677200.0287270.5816550.6487330.017456.0857410.9867333.9257055.02132382.277962.3448164.3588455.6578350.7878462.9567670.7718576.8818804.2688804.8178816.611