1)receivable turnover=annual sale/ average receivable,days of sales outstanding =365 / receivable turnover
2)inventory turnover=CDGS/average inventory,days of inventory on hand= 365/ inventory turnover
3)payable turnover= purchase/average trade payable, number of days of payables=365/ payable turnover ratio
Receivable TO,Inventory TO和payable TO的区别和联系---三者结合可得cash conversion cycle
=days of sales outstanding+days of inventory on hand-number of days of payables太高意味着excessive capital investment in sale process 4)total Assets TO=revenue/average total assets Fixed Asset TO=revenue/average net fixed assets
Working capital TO=revenue/avg. working capital(Working capital=流动资产-流动负债)
2. Liquidity Ratio
Current ratio=流动资产/流动负债
quick ratio=(现金+marketable securities +receivables)/流动负债 现金比率=(现金+marketable securities)/流动负债。 Current ratio, quick ratio和cash ratio一组非常类似
Defensive interval=(现金+marketable securities +receivables)/average daily expenditure
3. Solvency ratio
1)Long-term debt-to-equity,total debt-to-equity,debt ratio=total debt/total asset,financial leverage=total assets/total equity
Debt-to-equity= total debt/ total shareholders’ equity反映依靠债务融资的比率,total debt=长期负债+短期附息债
Debt-to-capital=D/(D+E)所谓capital,即负债和权益之和! Debt to assets= total debt/total assets
2)Financial leverage—财务杠杆--=avg. total assets/avg. total equity 是平均总资产除以平均总权益—顾名思义,是先有的权益所能撬动的总的资产的数量---仅此叫做财务杠杆!
利息保障倍数interest coverage=EBIT /interest payment,所谓EBIT即operating income即operating profit
Fixed charge coverage=(EBIT+lease payment)/(interest payment+ lease payment)
4. Profitability ratio
1)margin
Net profit margin=NI/revenue
Gross profit=net sale-COGS,operating profit=EBIT,NI=earnings after tax before dividend,total capital=long-term debt+short-term debt+ common and preferred equity=total asset Gross profit margin=gross profit/revenue,可以通过提高价格或降低成本来提高 Operating profit margin= EBIT/ revenue或使用EBITDA Pretax margin=EBT/revenue 2)return
ROA的计算公式实际上并不统一,有多种不同的公式 ROA=NI/Avg. total Assets
ROA=(NI+ interest*(1-T))/avg. total assets Operating Return OA=EBIT/avg.total Assets
Return on total capital(ROTC)=EBIT/ avg.total asset Return on equity(ROE)=NI/avg.total equity
Return on common equity=NI-preferred dividend/ average common equity
5.杜邦分析系统:
ROE=NI/equity进行扩展=NI/revenue*revenue/equity即net profit margin*equity turnover ROE=NI/sales*sales/assets*assets/equity=net profit margin×assets turnover×leverage ratio leverage ratio即financial leverage即equity multiplier,leverage multiplier 进一步扩展:
ROE=(NI/EBT)*(EBT/EBIT)*(EBIT/Revenue)*(Revenue/Total Assets)*(Total Assets/Total Equity) 税务负担×利息负担×Ebit margin×资产周转率×financial leverage
6.Common equity
1)P/E price to earning ,EPS earnings per share, cash flow per share, EBIT per share,EBITDA per share。
2) dividend,retention rate(RR)=(net income available to common-dividend declared)/net income available to common=1-dividend payout ratio
Dividend payout ratio=dividends declared/ net income available to common Sustainable growth rate g=RR*ROE
Net income per employee,sales per employee适合服务和咨询公司;growth in the same-store sale餐饮零售业不考虑开业的new location,sales per square foot 3)Business risk
Coefficient variation(CV)标准差/期望,CV sales,CV operating income,CV net income Capital adequacy,VAR,reserve requirement,liquid asset requirement,net interest margin。
其他:Credit analysis,segment analysis(business,geographic)。用来预测:ratio analysis(common-size),sensitivity analysis,scenario analysis,simulation
六、Analysis of inventory,long-lived assets
1.inventory
1)成本
IFRS与GAAP都采用Product cost作为存货成本,包括:1)purchase cost-trade discounts and rebates, 2)Conversion cost including labor and overhead, 3)其他成本necessary to bring 存货 to present location and condition.资本化成本,expense的确认is delayed直到存货卖出,收入确认.
期间费用(非资本化):1)abnormal waste of材料,人力,管理,2)storage cost,3)administrative overhead,4) selling cost IASB,IFRS 允许的方法Specific identification, FIFO, Weighted average cost,不允许LIFO BS表上,lower of cost or net realizable GAAP,FASB 允许的方法Specific identification, FIFO, LIFO,Weighted average cost BS表上,lower of cost or market value 如果NRV比BS表低,则write down并在IS表中确认loss,如果价值恢复则在IS表中减少COGS确认gain。恢复后的价值不能超过write down前的。 计算方法改变:表明改变后将提供更reliable 和relevant的信息。 如果market比BS表低,则write down并在IS表中确认loss,如果价值恢复不允许write up 计算方法改变:说明why is preferable FIFO方法下,不论存货的价格怎么变化,都能更好反应存货的价值!因此FIFO更好的反应了inventory;而LIFO则是更好的反应了cogs的价值!对periodic和perpetual inventory system下FIFO结果一样,LIFO结果不一样。
Net realizable value=expected sales price-estimated selling cost- completion cost, Market一般=replacement cost,不能高于NRV,or低于NRV-normal profit margin,如果replacement>NRV,则market=NRV,if replacement 2)Write down影响inventory turnover,有些行业允许比历史成本价高report存货,农业,林业,贵金属etc,以NRV,在IS表中确认gain,NRV为市场价格,或近期成交价。 3)披露,在footnotes 内容:cost flow method,total carrying value,carrying value= fair value- selling cost,确认为COGS的存货cost,writedown,reversal,carrying value pledged as collateral。 计算方法改变需retrospectively recast 之前的财务报表,累计的影响在年初的retained earning里调节。特例:如果改成LIFO则不需调整。 对ratio的影响:A. profitability,LIFO使得 COGS高,gross profit和net profit低. B. liquidity,LIFO时BS上的存货价值低,working capital低,quick ratio无影响,C.Activity, 存货周转率高,D. solvency, assets低,使得debt-to-equity高。 分析:存货周转too high,可能not carrying enough 存货满足客户需要,也可能是发生了write down,存货周转相对与销售增长的速度,高存货周转+低销售增长说明存货数量不够。 FIFO inventory = LIFO inventory + LIFO reserve---一般在附注里面显示! 可以根据LIFO reserve在年初和年末的变化计算出本年的cogs!!!--非常重要! COGS fifo=purchases + BEG INV fifo- END INV fifo-----FIFO下的cogs等于本年度购买+fifo下年初的存货-fifo下年末的存货; BEG INV fifo=BEG INV lifo+ LIFO Reserve beg END INV fifo=END INV lifo + LIFO Reserve end 结论:COGS fifo = COGS lifo – LIFO reserve----这是从Cogs 的计算从LIFO变成FIFO的过程。如果FIFO变成LIFO,则是一个完全不同的过程:需要估算: COGS lifo=COGS fifo + BI fifo×inflation rate Inflation rate=change in LIFO reserve/FIFO inventory beg 分析师要采用LIFO下的计算进行profitability的分析,而要使用FIFO下的数据进行liquidity,资产,或者权益的分析;分析运营能力activity的时候最好采用FIFO和LIFO相结合的方式,使用LIFO下的cogs,使用FIFO下的inventory----这种方法叫做current cost method;分析偿债能力时,要使用LIFO分析NI同时使用FIFO的数据进行equity的分析 计算current ratio的时候,使用FIFO下的资产,因为更加贴近现实; 计算inventory turnover的时候,使用LIFO下的cogs更接近事实! 从LIFO的BS想FIFO的BS进行调整:分为两种情况 1. 当inventory 上升时 a. 在BS 的左边,Inventory 加上LIFO reserve—assets增加; b. 在RE上加上LIFO reserve 2. 当inventory下降时 a. 在BS 的左边,Inventory 加上LIFO reserve—assets增加; b. 在deferred tax liability账户上加上LIFO reserve×T,在RE上加上LIFO× (1-T) 较来决定以什么价格进行存货的计入。 在LIFO方法下, 1. 当价格上升时,就直接采用原来价格计算,不会将价格上调,则对于存货的估 计没有improve; 2. 当价格下降时,采用了LCM将存货的价值下调,则提供了对存货的估计! 在价格上升和growing inventory balance的情况下, 1. FIFO的cogs小,inventory大,CA/CL大,利润NI大,tax大,导致现金流CF小; 2. LIFO的cogs大,inventory小,CA/CL小,利润NI小,Tax小,导致现金流CF大!