题目：海南省出口贸易对经济增长的实证分析
云 南 财 经 大 学
学生毕业论文（设计）
院（系）： 商 学 院 专业： 国 际 经 济 与 贸 易 班级： 1041200602（国贸06-2） 学
号： 20060177
论文作者： 吴 坤 指导教师： 兰 天 指导教师职称： 教 授 2010 年 5 月
原创性及知识产权声明
云南财经大学
本科毕业论文（设计）原创性及知识产权声明
本人郑重声明：所呈交的毕业论文（设计）是本人在导师的指导下取得的成果。对本论文（设计）的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中以明确方式标明。因本毕业论文（设计）引起的法律结果完全由本人承担。
本毕业论文（设计）成果归云南财经大学所有。
特此声明
毕业论文（设计）作者签名：吴坤 作者专业：国际经济与贸易 作者学号：20060177
2010年5月23日
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目 录
目 录
原创性及知识产权声明 ................................................................................................................................ I 目录 ..................................................................................................................................... 错误！未定义书签。 中文摘要及关键词 .........................................................................................................................................Ⅲ 英文摘要及关键词 .........................................................................................................................................Ⅳ 一、引言 ................................................................................................................................................................1 （一）选题背景及意义............................................................................................................................1 （二）文献综述............................................................................................................................................2 （三）本文研究思路及内容安排 ......................................................................................................5 二、海南省出口贸易的现状分析 ...........................................................................................................6 （一）GDP的分析........................................................................................................................................7 （二）出口贸易的分析............................................................................................................................8 （三）出口依存度的分析 ......................................................................................................................9 （四）出口贸易地理的分析 ...............................................................................................................10 三、海南省出口贸易对经济增长的实证分析 ..............................................................................11 （一）出口贸易对经济增长的作用机制 ....................................................................................11 （二）分析方法及数据选取 ...............................................................................................................12 （三）一元线性回归方程分析..........................................................................................................12 （四）散点图与相关度..........................................................................................................................13 （五）平稳性检验、协整分析及格兰杰因果检验 ...............................................................14 （六）实证分析的结论..........................................................................................................................17 四、研究总结及启示....................................................................................................................................18 附录 .........................................................................................................................................................................21 参考文献 ..............................................................................................................................................................22 致谢 .........................................................................................................................................................................24
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中文摘要及关键词
摘 要
回顾经济学的发展史，国际贸易对经济增长的作用越来越重要，其中一国或地区出口贸易成为经济增长不可忽视的因素。经济增长是经济学重要的研究对象之一，也是经济学中一个最具有魅力的研究话题。影响经济增长的因素很多，本文主要从出口贸易对经济增长的作用研究两者之间的关系。
毫不夸张地说，自2008年全球金融危机以来我国的出口贸易受到前所未有的挑战。从1988年成立海南省以来，海南省历年的贸易额只有四年为顺差，其余为逆差（特别是我国加入世贸组织以来，逆差额越来越大）[附录2]，其中2008年海南省的贸易逆差是2007年的两倍。因此本文深入研究海南出口贸易促进经济增长的作用机制，进而利用海南省1988年到2009年的统计数据，采用了计量经济学分析法对海南省出口贸易对经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析，结果表明两者具有长期稳定的均衡关系，同时海南省出口贸易对经济增长起到了推动作用，但经济增长没有推动出口贸易的增长，从而提出相关的结论及启示。
关键词： 海南省 出口贸易 经济增长 实证分析
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英文摘要及关键词
Abstract
Reviewing the history of Economics, international trade had become more and more essential in Economic Growth.A country or region export would not be ignored to Economic Growth which was an important object of study as well as one of the most charismatic of the research topic in Economics.There were many factors which had affected Economic Growth.When Export Trade was on the role of Economic Growth, the article had researched mainly their ralationship.
It was no exaggeration to say that Export Trade in China was faced with a number of unprecedented challenges from The Global Financial Crisis in 2008.There was the trade surpluses in only four years in Hainan Province since 1988 and the rest of the trade deficits (in particularly, the deficits were more and more increasing since China had entried the WTO)[appendix 2] ,in which the trade deficit in Hainan Province in 2008 was twice as high as in 2007.Not only could we discover deeply the mechanism of promoting Economic Growth between Export Trade and Economic Growth,but also could apply Empirical Analysis of the relationship between Export Trade and Economic Growth in Hainan Province from statistics in 1988 to in 2009 according to Econometric Methodology.The result of studies had shown that Export Trade and Economic Growth in Hainan Province had a long-term equilibrium relationship. What matters most is that Export Trade had played a significant role in promoting Economic Growth,however Economic Growth had not elevated the growth of Export Trade so that we could make relevant conclusion and enlightenments.
Keywords：Hainan Export Trade Economic Growth Empirical Analysis
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