分类号 F272.3 密 级 UDC 编 号 10486
武 汉 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文
企业危机决策研究
研 究 生 姓 名：王 任 军 指导教师姓名、职称：赵锡斌 教授 学 科、专 业 名 称：工 商 管 理
二〇〇四年四月
RESEARCH OF BUSINESS CRISIS
DECISION-MAKING
By Renjun Wang
April, 2004
郑 重 声 明
本人的学位论文是在导师指导下独立撰写并完成的，学位论文没有剽窃、抄袭、造假等违反学术道德、学术规范和侵权行为，本人愿意承担由此而产生的法律后果和法律责任，特此郑重声明。
学位论文作者（签名）：
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根据企业危机管理的一般理论，一旦企业爆发危机，危机处理就成为企业危机管理的最为紧迫和最为重要的工作内容，而危机处理的核心就是危机决策。危机决策的有效与否，不仅与是否恰当地应用科学的方法和程序有关，而且在很大程度上还与决策者的个性、动机、情感、认知、心理素质、行为取向、组织协调和人际关系等因素有关。诺贝尔奖获得者西蒙曾指出，物种适应的是特定的任务环境，而不是整体的生活环境。将这一思想运用到企业危机决策的研究中，可以展开两种分析：一是分析环境提出的挑战、环境给决策者提出的需求、环境的复杂性等，即企业危机情境这一特定的任务环境对危机决策提出了哪些挑战和要求；二是分析个人如何适应于这种特定的任务环境，即决策者如何适应于企业危机决策这种特定的任务环境。目前，有关危机决策的研究大多集中在企业如何应对某类具体危机的策略与方法上，这实际上更多的是在探讨企业处理某类危机的危机决策的具体内容，而不是危机决策行为本身。
本文重点探讨上述第二个命题即决策者如何适应于企业危机决策这种特定的任务环境，提出了危机决策的三角模型，即危机决策者要制定一个有效的危机决策，必须解决好三个关键问题：⑴决策者的自我管理；⑵对事实的把握；⑶决策工艺的选择。并通过理论分析、案例剖析、经验总结等研究方法，从决策行为与决策心理的角度对这三个关键环节进行了阐述。针对决策者的自我管理这一环节，总结并提出了危机决策应该遵循的思维原则；分析了决策方略、决策行为模式、决策者的心理压力、心理障碍及判断偏误等问题，并就各方面存在的问题总结出了相应的解决方法。在对事实的把握这一环节中，重点探讨了危机决策者判别事实的思考方法和获取信息的途径与策略。关于决策工艺的选择，重点分析了可供企业危机决策选择的决策流程、步骤及决策方法，提出了一个便于实际运用的问题解决模型。全文通过对危机决策三角模型的阐述，力图回答“危机中企业决策者如何才能制定一个有效的决策”这一问题。
关键词：危机；危机管理；危机决策；决策行为；决策心理
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Abstract
According to the general theory of business crisis management, crisis-settling is to be the most urgent and important work of the crisis management once the crisis brakes out. The essence of the crisis-settling is the crisis decision-making. The effectiveness of the crisis decision-making lies on not only the employment of correct and reasonable decision technique and decision process, but also the character, motivation, feeling, cognitive ability, mental stress, psychological factor, behavioral orientation, organizational coordination, personal relationship, etc. Herbet A. Simon, the awardee of the Nobel Prize, pointed out that what the species adapt is a particular task or set of tasks, not the whole circumstances. Basing this idea, we can conduct two researches on crisis decision-making. One is to analyze the challenges of the task situation, the requirements for the decision maker, the complexity of the task situation and so on. That is to say, we should analyze the challenges and requirements for the decision maker under the crisis situation. The other is to research how the individual can accommodate the particular task situation. Namely, we have to research how the decision maker can adapt the crisis situation. At present, most of the researches of the crisis decision-making concentrate on the strategies and techniques of crisis-settling，but not the behavior of decision-making itself.
This paper mainly discusses how the decision maker can adapt the crisis situation, the second proposition mentioned above. It conceives a triangular crisis decision-making model, tailored to help the management to make an effective business crisis decision. The triangular crisis decision-making model demonstrates that the decision maker should resolve three key problems well in order to formulate an effective decision, including the self-management of the decision maker, the cognition of facts and decision-making process design. The paper expatiates upon the three points from the point of view of behavioral decision making and psychological decision making by means of theory analyzing, case analyzing and experience summarizing. On the self-management of the decision maker, four important think principles for crisis decision-making have been epurated and explained. Furthermore, it covers the decision strategy, behavior model, psychological pressure, psychological
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