中国日报中文版Big steps must follow small advances

2019-01-19 11:59

Big steps must follow small advances

大的步骤必须遵循小的进步

The BOC Cross-Border RMB Index launched by the Bank of China in Singapore last month is a big step in China's efforts to internationalize the yuan, as it is the first index on the currency's internationalization compiled and maintained by a Chinese financial institution.

中国银行上个月在新加坡推出中银人民币跨境指数,是中国人民币国际化的努力迈出了一大步,因为它是第一个由中国金融机构货币的国际指数编制和维护的。

According to officials, the index will help track cross-border yuan flows and transactions over time and across different regions. In particular, the gauge will follow the fluctuations in the amount of cross-border yuan flows, including yuan flow into and out of China, and cross-border transactions outside China.

据官员介绍,指数将随着时间的推移,在不同的地区,帮助跟踪人民币跨境流动和交易。尤其是,计将在跨境人民币流动量方面跟随波动,包括人民币流入和流出中国,和中国以外地区的跨境交易。

The Bank of China says the index climbed to 186 in the second quarter of this year, registering an increase of 41 percent from the second quarter of last year, and an 86 percent increase over the

fourth quarter of 2011, when the index started. Despite the index's rapid growth in the past couple of years, such a trend has come to a halt this year. As a matter of fact, the index has dropped slightly from the first quarter of this year, which is partly reflected in the capital outflows in response to the tapering off of the US Federal Reserve's asset purchase (quantitative easing) programs.

中国银行表示,2011年,当指数开始注册后,今年第二季度,该指数攀升至186,同比增长41%,从去年第二季度,在第四季度增加86%。尽管该指数在过去几年的快速增长,但是今年这种趋势已经停下来。事实上,从今年第一季度,该指数有所回落,这部分是在美国联邦储备委员会的资产购买(量化宽松政策)渐行渐远的程序反映在资本流出上的回应。

Such a drop or even stalling in the progress of yuan internationalization prompted some concerns over China's determination in making the currency international. On the other hand, others point out that China has made tremendous headway in pushing the use of the yuan around the globe.

这种下降,甚至拖延人民币国际化的进展,促使中国决心在国际货币的一些顾虑。另一方面,其他人指出,中国已经取得了巨大的进展,在世界各地推动使用人民币。

The differences of opinion probably come from two very different perspectives on the progress of the currency's internationalization.

The Bank of International Settlement says the average daily trading volume of the yuan reached $120 billion last year, dozens of times greater than $3.4 billion in 2010. This makes the yuan one of the top 10 most actively traded currencies in the entire world. 关于货币的国际化的进展意见分歧可能来自两种截然不同的观点。国际清算银行说,在去年人民币的平均每日成交量达120亿美元,在2010年数十次大于3.4亿美元。这使得人民币交易成为整个世界的货币交易最活跃的前10名之一。

On the other hand, even after such rapid growth, the Chinese currency has not garnered international acceptance similar to \for about 0.87 percent of the total global foreign trade last year, in stark contrast with the fact that China makes up about 10 percent of total foreign trade in the world.

另一方面,即使在这样的快速增长中,中国的货币贸易已没有囊括国际社会认为的相似“中国制造”的产品。去年,人民币外贸交易清零占全球外贸总额的0.87%左右,形成鲜明对比的事实是,中国外贸总额在世界上约10%。

As a result, many expect increasing internationalization of the Chinese currency as the country's economy becomes more open and integrated into the global economic and trade system. 因此,许多人预计中国货币日益国际化,使得国家的经济变得更

加开放并且更加能融入全球经济和贸易体系。

However, there remains considerable speculation about what China really wants to achieve in its attempt to internationalize the yuan. According to monetary theory, currencies typically play three related yet distinct roles, namely as intermediaries for global trade, vehicles for international investment and clearing, and as reserve holdings in central banks' reserve systems.

但是,大家对于中国真正要实现人民币国际化的企图仍然存在着相当大的猜测。根据货币理论,货币通常扮演三个相关但却又截然不同的角色,即作为中介全球贸易,国际投资和结算的汽车,作为储备持有的中央银行储备系统。

By such criteria, the yuan seems to have only achieved part of the first criterion. As the yuan has become used in a wider range of business transactions and greater trade volume, it has definitely ascended in its status as an international currency. In this regard, the internationalization of the renminbi has naturally sped up, especially in the Asian and Pacific regions, because of close trade ties and China's greater influence in the region. Although Hong Kong has taken a clear lead in its attempt to become an overseas yuan center, Singapore and Taipei have also extended their exposure to the currency, both in trades and in investment.

通过这样的标准,人民币似乎已经取得第一项标准的一部分。由

于人民币已经成为在更广泛的商业交易和更大的贸易额,它肯定已经登上在其作为国际货币的地位。在这方面,由于密切的经贸关系和中国在该地区的影响力加大,人民币国际化的速度自然加快,特别是在亚洲和太平洋地区。虽然香港已经取得了明显的领先优势,其试图成为海外人民币中心,但是新加坡和台北也延长了他们接触到的货币,无论是在贸易和投资。

What seems to be falling short of the Chinese government's expectation is the other two functions of an international currency, namely investment currency and reserve ballast.

其他两个功能的国际货币,投资货币和储备安定器似乎低于国家政府的期望值。

If one were to use foreign exchange market turnover as an indicator of a currency's potential as a vehicle currency for transactions involving cross-border financial transactions, then a totally different picture emerges for the yuan. At about 1 percent of all the turnover in foreign exchange markets in 2011, the yuan trails the currencies of many other countries, even other Asian countries with much smaller economies.

如果把一个人使用外汇市场的营业额指标作为车辆货币交易涉及跨境金融交易货币的潜力,然后关于人民币出现一个完全不同的画面。人民币处外汇市场在2011年的所有营业额的1%左右,落后于许多其他国家,甚至落后于其他亚洲国家的货币与小得多


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