的经济体。
Along with China's ambition to turn the yuan into a major investment currency, there are other deeper concerns and considerations. Having witnessed the volatile financial markets during the global financial crisis and how the prices of commodities, shipping, and energy can determine the power of a specific currency and its issuing country, China feels increasingly compelled to command similar power that is currently being enjoyed by the US, the EU and Japan.
随着中国把人民币变成一个主要的投资货币的雄心,再加上还有其他更深层次的关注和考虑。在目睹了在全球金融危机中动荡的金融市场,中国的商品,航运,能源价格如何确定一个特定的货币,通过美国、欧盟和日本,目前正在享有的其发行国的力量,中国日益感到类似被迫指挥的权力。
China's wish to eventually turn the yuan into a global reserve currency is also partly related to China's increasing dissatisfaction with the current global monetary system. Although perhaps an even longer shot than the previous two functions, the role of a reserve currency may indeed be something the Chinese government truly seeks in yuan internationalization after all. With $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, mostly invested in the US Treasury and US government agency securities, China has become increasingly
worried about the safety and valuation of its ballooning foreign reserves. Therefore, China is looking to make the yuan an equal alternative, when various countries decide what to hold in their respective foreign reserves.
中国的愿望,最终把人民币变成全球储备货币,中国对当前全球货币体系的日益不满也和这些有一定的关系。虽然也许比前面两种功能甚至用更长的时间,储备货币的作用可能确实是中国政府在人民币国际化后,全部事情的真正目的。3万亿美元的外汇储备,大多投资于美国国债和美国政府机构证券,中国已为其膨胀的外汇储备的安全性和估值越来越担心。因此,当各国决定在各自的外汇储备持有什么的时候中国正在研究人民币平等的替代方案。
Given Chinese economic growth and increasing power in the global arena, such ambitions are not only understandable, but also reasonable. That said, it is equally important that people remain realistic with their expectations, and challenges that they may face. 鉴于中国经济增长和在全球舞台上的力量增强,这种野心不是可以理解的,但也合理。这就是说,人们在他们的期望下维持现实和他们可能面临的挑战同样重要。
History teaches that there was a long lag between when the US economy overtook the UK economy in size and when the dollar overtook sterling as a major international currency, according to
research in international economics and economic history. Even with its economy close to the level of the US in the 1980s, Japan has tried, and failed to make the Japanese yen a leading international currency, let alone a dominant one. Hence, both Chinese government and international investors have to be realistic and patient with the duration of this process.
历史告诉我们,当美国经济在规模上超越英国经济和当美元作为主要国际货币取代英镑,在国际经济学和经济史的研究之间有一个很长的滞后。尽管其经济接近美国在20世纪80年代的水平,但是日本已经试过了,未能使日元成为国际领先的货币,更不用说占据一个占主导地位。因此,随着这一过程的持续时间加长无论是中国政府和国际投资者必须要实事求是和要有耐心。 The author is a faculty fellow at the International Center for Finance, Yale University; and deputy director of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiaotong University. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
笔者是在金融国际中心的教职研究员,耶鲁大学的、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副主任,所以以上的观点,并不一定反映中国日报的观点。