前 言
技术分析是对证券市场行为所作的分析。证券市场行为包括成交价格及伴随价格所产生的成交量，而这一切均显示在图表上。本文使用大量图表对上证指数及沪深个股进行了形态分析及指标分析，从而提高本文的实战价值。全文分为大盘篇及个股篇，大盘分析是进行个股分析的前提，逆大势操作的风险远比顺势时来的要高。收益总伴随着风险，但这并不意味着高收益就一定跟着高风险，低收益就无风险。在证券市场中往往由于投资者的非理性行为而造就某些收益远大于风险的地方，这需要通过相关的技术形态及指标进行甄别。
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目 录
大盘篇
（一）大盘的周期性运动 ·········································································································· 3 （二）大盘均线系统 ·················································································································· 4 （三）大盘买卖指标运用之一 ·································································································· 5 （四）大盘买卖指标运用之二 ·································································································· 8 （五）底部三角形 ··················································································································· 12 （六）突破三角形 ··················································································································· 15 （七）上升三角形 ··················································································································· 18 （八）双顶 ······························································································································· 22 （九）头肩顶 ··························································································································· 25
个股篇
（一）个股与大盘 ··················································································································· 28 （二）价与量 ··························································································································· 30 （三）大概率买卖点 ················································································································ 33 （四）个股均线系统 ················································································································ 37 （五）主力咽喉部 ··················································································································· 40 （六）主力控盘特征 ················································································································ 43 （七）升浪不过三 ··················································································································· 46 （八）顶部K线特征 ··············································································································· 49
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（一）大盘的周期性运动
图1-1
阶段一（底部区域）
市场利空不断，股价绵绵阴跌直至加速赶底后，市场成交量严重萎缩，市场情绪处于极度悲观之中，但之后股价没有再创新低，而是围绕60日线上下波动。到第一阶段末端，30日线已多日运行于60日线上方，股价缩量小幅回调后便不再下跌。就在大家怀疑、犹豫之时，主力机构已悄悄建仓完毕，等待利好进行拉升。 阶段二（拉升阶段）
市场因某利好连续放量上涨，当股价再次突破60日均线和前期压力位之时，便是买入之机。股票市场上某一两个龙头板块率先急剧拉升，赚钱效应开始显现，场外资金不断进入，套牢者观望暂不卖出，力量向买方倾斜。但不要指望大盘能一步登天，市场总在大家忘记伤痛，一致看多，情绪亢奋之时出现回调。此阶段，均线呈现多头状态，期间出现的回调多在30日均线处获得支撑。 阶段三（顶部区域）
股市有底便有顶，利润最终要通过抛售筹码来兑现，顶部阶段上市企业利好频出，基本面得到改善，主力便进行最后的拉高出货。此阶段，市场情绪极度亢奋，大盘振幅剧烈，股价在30日均线处来回震荡，此时最佳策略是出场观望。那观望什么？一观大盘能否在60日均线获得支撑，二观大盘能否放量突破前期压力位。若60日均线明显掉头向下时，便不要轻易入场了。
阶段四（下跌阶段）
当预期变为事实，市场没有可炒作的理由时，上涨动力便随之消失，悲剧性下跌由此开始。此时60日线与120日线形成死叉后，均线呈现空头排列，下跌期间出现的反弹也会受制于60日线。均线空头期间不宜进行操作。
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在股票买卖中为自己定下几条操作原则：
(1)确定大盘所处的阶段，只做第一和第二阶段的股票；
(2)在上升阶段，大盘总有歇息(调整)的时候，看不清大盘的方向，请出场，做个旁观者；
（二）大盘均线系统
均线指标是反映价格运行趋势的重要指标，其运行趋势一旦形成，将在一段时间内继续保持，因此，看清大盘所处的阶段离不开均线系统。
图2-1
大盘不是每天都可以参与的，要参与也要在胜算最大的地方介入，均线滤除了K线图上杂乱的波动，使我们不至于迷失在日常的涨跌之中。技术分析本质上属于统计学的范畴，它不可能告诉我们市场一定会发生什么事情，只是通过对历史数据进行分析得到一个概率结果，利用均线去确定操作区间也只是为了提高获胜的概率，在一个多头市场，即使被套了也容易解套，而在空头市场，解套的一天则可能遥遥无期。
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图2-2
（三）大盘买卖指标运用之一
大盘基础指标只有两个：K线和成交量。其他指标基本上是由K线演化而成。如果仅依靠K线和成交量来分析大盘，往往会因短期的波动而迷失其中。指标运用不在于多而在于精，越简单的往往越好用。
MACD：在所有证券交易软件中，MACD总是排在左边第一位，此足以证明其重要性。MACD是捕捉大盘中短线买卖点的极佳指标，图3-1中蓝点表示MACD金叉。
图3-1
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