Dr Fincham and his colleagues report in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology that although all participants had similar infidelity ratings, averaging 3.5, to start with, at the end those ratings varied considerably between the four groups. People who had prayed for their partners averaged 2.4, significantly lower than their initial scores, whereas those who thought positively about their partners or considered their day both showed ratings of 3.9—significantly higher.
芬查姆博士和他的同事在《人格与社会心理学杂志》上报告说，尽管所有参与者最初都有相近似的不忠值，平均为3.5分，但到了实验结束时，这些平均值在四个组之间却拉开了较大的距离。为情侣祈祷的人平均值为2.4，相比他们的初始值有显著减少；而那些从正面考量情侣或反思一天生活的这两组得到了3.9 ——【比3.5】有显著提高。
Be careful what you pray for 小心你所祈祷的是什么
What struck the team as particularly intriguing was that participants asked to engage in general prayer showed an average rating of 3.2, a value much lower than they were seeing for the other two control conditions. This hinted to them that the mere act of praying increased fidelity. In fact, things were more complicated than that. Four participants in the “undirected prayer” group had, without prompting, decided to pray for their romantic partners on a daily basis. When Dr Fincham and his colleagues took this into account, and shifted the scores of these specific participants to the “prayer for partner” group, they found that those who prayed for partners showed an average infidelity score of 2.5, whereas those who engaged in undirected prayer had an average infidelity score of 3.6. Undirected prayer, then, did not seem to make much difference.
让科研组惊讶而刮目相待的是，做无导向祈祷的那组受测试者得到了平均3.2分，远低于另两个控制条件下所得分数。这点似乎提示研究人员仅仅依靠祈祷就能提高忠诚度，而事实情况却尚待细究。 4名参与“无导向祈祷”小组的受测学生在没有被要求的情况下，决定每天为他们的情人祈祷。当芬查姆博士等科研人员按此情形把这几人的分数转进了“为情侣祈祷”组的时候，他们发现该组所得的不忠平均分成了2.5，而参与“无导向祈祷”的达到了3.6。结果显示，无向祈祷者【的不忠诚】似乎没有太大的转变。
Scores reflecting participants’ views of how sacred their romantic relationships were changed during the four-week period as well. Values at the start of the study were much the same among all participants, averaging 3.2. However, by the end of the study, those who had prayed for their partners showed stronger beliefs that their relationships were sacred than those who had just had positive thoughts about their partners, with average scores of 3.7 and 2.8 respectively. Dr Fincham suspects that the act of praying about romantic partners leads people to view their relationship as something sacred and not to be damaged. This, he argues, is the force that is reducing infidelity in the study.
测量分数另外反映出参与者在为期4周的时间内对恋爱关系圣洁程度的看法也发生了变化。所有参与同学的初始不忠值都相差无几，平均为3.2分。然而到研究结束时的数据显示，替情侣们祈祷的组员更加相信自己的情侣关系是圣洁的，其比
分高过了正面评估情侣的那组，两组平均值分别是3.7 及2.8。芬查姆博士推测说，为情人祈祷的行为导致人们认为情侣关系是圣洁的且不容受到伤害。他认为这就是此次研究中降低不忠程度的力量。
Yet even with these findings, the team knew that a crucial limitation of their work was that all of the data were self-reported by the people doing the praying. To know for certain whether praying for romantic partners strengthened relationships, they needed to go further. In a follow-up experiment they therefore asked 23 undergraduates who had romantic partners, and who stated that they prayed at least occasionally, either to pray for their partners daily for four weeks or to think positive thoughts about them every day for the same amount of time.
然而，即使得到了这些调查结果，科研人员也很清楚此项研究尚存在最为关键的限制：即所有的数据都是做祈祷同学的自我汇报。想要确定是否“替情侣祈祷”真能加强情侣关系，他们还需要更进一步的实验。在一个后续实验中，他们要求23名有情侣并申明至少也会偶尔做祈祷的大学生持续4周每日或为情侣祈祷，或每日从正面思量情人。
At the end of this period, participants came to the laboratory with their partners and, while being videotaped together, were asked to describe the short or long-term future of their relationship. The videos were then presented to five trained research assistants who were unaware of the goals of the study. They were asked to rate the level of commitment that the participants demonstrated towards their partners during the interaction on a scale of one to seven (with one indicating a participant who was “not at all committed” and seven indicating “extreme commitment”).
在这一阶段结束时，参与学生及其情侣一起到实验室来表达对相互之间关系的近期或远景的看法并进行录像。这些录像然后交给5位对实验目的并不知情的研究助理，让他们为参与者对情侣所表示的承诺程度打分。分值范围为1-7（1表示“全然无意”，7表示“极度投入”）。
The team found that those who prayed earned scores that were significantly higher, averaging 5.3, than those who had thought positively, who averaged 4.6. This suggested that what participants had reported about themselves in the first study accurately reflected how prayer affected their romances. Thus, whereas other animal species must resort to constant vigilance to reduce the risks of infidelity, humans (or at least those who have a faith) have an extra tool in the box: religion. Indeed, people worried about potentially cheating spouses may find praying together a better safeguard against adultery than checking mobile-phone bills and scrutinising credit-card receipts—and one that builds trust, rather than destroying it.
研究小组发现，那些祈祷者所得的分数（平均5.3）明显高过了念情人之好者（4.6）。这点说明了被测试者在第一部分研究中的自我汇报是准确的，它如实反映了祈祷如何影响了他们的恋情。如此说来，当其它动物还处在必须时刻防范，以减情侣滥情风险之时，人类（或至少是那些有信仰/信任的）已经多出了一个额外的工具：宗教。 其实，因为配偶的潜在出轨危险而时刻忧心挂肠的情人，与其检查对方的移动电话费、细究其信用卡收据，不如尝试一个更好的对付方法: 双双一同做祷告——通过它搭建两者之间的信任，而不是摧毁。
The economy经济
A joyless recovery 经济总算复苏了
Oct 29th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition
New figures suggest that America has at last moved out of recession 最新数字表明，美国终于从衰退中走了出来
Getty Images
ON October 29th the government reported that gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the third quarter compared to the second. This was the first increase since the second quarter of 2008. It backs up other evidence that the recession ended in the third quarter or just before, though the official decision, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists, is still some way off. Robert Gordon, a member of this group, is confident that the recession, which began in December 2007, ended in June. But at 18 months that would still make it the longest since 1933.
据10月29日政府的报告称，第三季度美国的国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算，比第二季度增长了3.5%，这是自2008年第二季度以来的首次增长。这个数据支持了其它表明经济衰退止步于第三季度或第三季度之前的说法。即便学院派经济学家团体——美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的正式结果出炉尚待时日，但其成员罗伯特?戈登（Robert Gordon）很有信心地表示，从2007年12月开始的经济衰退在6月结束了。然而长达18个月的衰退期，仍然使这次经济危机成为了自1933年大萧条以来之最。
Consumers are sceptical. Their confidence fell in October, according to the Conference Board, a research group. A poll for The Economist by YouGov found that 35% of respondents think the economy is getting worse; just 28% think it is getting better. Unemployment is still rising, and even a White House adviser, Christina Romer, predicts it will remain “severely elevated”
throughout next year. A lot of third-quarter growth was the result of temporary government stimulus. Consumer spending grew by 3.4%, the best since early 2007, largely because people were buying new cars in July and August with federal “cash for clunkers”. Sales have since fallen back. Residential construction leapt 23.4%, the first advance since the end of 2005, helped by an $8,000 tax credit for buyers of new homes. But new home sales dipped 3.6% in September, as the time to qualify for the credit expired.
但是消费者们仍持怀疑态度。依据美国经济谘商局（Conference Board，一个研究组织）公布的调查结果，消费者的信心在10月份出现下滑。YouGov调查公司为《经济学人》杂志做的民意调查中显示， 35%的受访者认为经济正在越变越坏；仅仅28%的人认为经济有所好转。失业人数继续攀升，甚至白宫顾问克里斯蒂娜?罗默预言，失业率在明年一年中仍将大幅升高。第三季度的增长是源于政府的短期经济刺激。消费支出增长了4.3%，创下2007年来最好的一次，但大部分是源于7，8月份的联邦“旧车换现金”政策，促使人们在去买新车。政策一结束，销量就回落了。另一方面，托8000美元买新房就扣税的福，住宅建设急剧增长23.4%，这是2005年年末以来的首次增长。但是到了九月，新房销量下降了3.6%，也正好是在优惠终止的时候。
Voters are more worried about the economy than anything else, YouGov found, and they disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of it by a margin of 47% to 43%. That has spurred Mr Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress to explore new stimulus measures. One would extend unemployment insurance benefits by 14-20 weeks for some workers. Another would extend a subsidy for health insurance for those who lose it along with their jobs. These measures make sense; the recipients badly need the money and will probably spend every penny.
YouGov还发现，再没有什么比经济更让选民担心的了，对于奥巴马的经济处理方案，不赞同的比例为47%，赞同的占43%。这个数字刺激了奥巴马和国会中的民主党们寻找新的经济刺激方法。其中之一就是延长一些工人失业保险救济14到20个星期。还有一种方法可能就是帮助那些因丢失工作而失去健康保险的人们，扩大他们健康保险津贴的范围。这些措施很明智，失业者都急需钱，并且可能一分不剩的把领到的钱花掉。
A more dubious proposal would extend the new-home tax credit until next April and, reportedly,
offer a smaller $6,500 credit to people who already own a home. Also, Mr Obama wants to send an additional $250 each to Social Security beneficiaries because they will get no cost-of-living increase next year. This is daft: benefits are flat because inflation is negative, so real benefits have actually risen.
一个更有风险的提议是将新房免税政策延续到明年四月，并且，据报道称，再提一个小额贷款（6500美元）给那些已经有房的人们。除此之外奥巴马希望给每一个人领取社会保障金的人增加250美元，因为他们明年的生活费不会有所增长。这样做很愚蠢，因为通胀率为负，所以生活费不增加，但实际上，生活费已然增加了。
Calls for a new round of stimulus look premature. Temporary effects aside, growth in the third quarter reflects the dynamics of a genuine recovery. Exports and equipment investment both rose. Companies ran down inventories at a slower pace, a contributor to growth that should continue for at least two more quarters. Construction is so low that, even with sales so depressed, the inventory of unsold new homes has hit a 27-year low. This suggests that construction should expand further. And Mr Gordon notes that employment is still falling because, following the pattern of recent recessions, firms have aggressively slashed costs so that productivity has grown even as sales have fallen. Profits seem to have already turned around, and Mr Gordon predicts employment will follow by the first quarter of 2010.
要求采取新一轮的刺激举措还为时尚早，排除短期效应，第三季度的增长还是反映出了经济恢复真正的动力。出口和设备投资都在增长，企业削减囤货的速度减缓，在接下来的至少两个季度里仍会为经济增长贡献力量。建筑业打不起精神，但即便销售低迷，积存的新房已经创下了27年新低。这说明建筑业将会更进一步。而且戈登注意到，以最近几次的经济衰退为例来看，失业率依旧下降的原因是，企业已经强有力的削减了成本，提高了生产力，即便销量下降。利润似乎已经开始好转，戈登预言2010年第一季度时，就业率将重新上升。
More stimulus now would add to an already dangerously high deficit. There may be greater need for it in a year’s time, when the inventory boost will be waning, and this year’s $787 billion stimulus plan is about to expire. Even then, more stimulus should be considered only if a deficit-reduction plan is in place. In the meantime, monetary policy can assume the burden of safeguarding growth. The markets expect the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates by May, and there is speculation that at its policy meeting on November 3rd and 4th it will water down its current commitment to near-zero rates for “an extended period”. Given downward pressure on inflation, the Fed could instead stay on hold all next year, providing a safety cushion for the economy and taking some pressure off the battered federal budget.
现今的大部分经济刺激将增加已然高危的赤字。可能一年之后，这些措施更加必要，那时库存逐渐变小，今年的7870亿的刺激计划也将过期。尽管那样，如果有了赤字缩减的计划，那么更多的经济刺激将被纳入议程。同时，货币政策可以承担起保持增长的大任。市场预期美联储五月可以提高利率，并且还有推断称11月3日和4日它的政策会议将会缓和当下在“发展期”近乎0利率的承诺。美联储将对(市场的)通货膨胀给予压力，会在明年对利率进行调整，为经济发展提供一个