安全的条件，并且为捉襟见肘的联邦政府预算减轻压力。 Brazil's agricultural miracle 巴西农业奇观
How to feed the world 如何养活全世界
The emerging conventional wisdom about world farming is gloomy. There is an alternative 新兴的世界农业传统观念前景堪忧。我们找到了新的出路
From The Economist print edition | Aug 26th 2010
THE world is planting a vigorous new crop: “agro-pessimism”, or fear that mankind will not be able to feed itself except by wrecking the environment. The current harvest of this variety of whine will be a bumper one. Natural disasters—fire in Russia and flood in Pakistan, which are the world’s fifth- and eighth-largest wheat producers respectively—have added a Biblical colouring to an unfolding fear of famine. By 2050 world grain output will have to rise by half and meat production must double to meet demand. And that cannot easily happen because growth in grain yields is flattening out, there is little extra farmland and renewable water is running short.
世界各国的头脑中正疯长一种新的作物: \农业悲观主义\或者说他们担忧人类已经不能够养活自己,除非通过破坏环境达到目的。当前的种种哀叹之声预示着这种作物即将丰收成熟。俄罗斯和巴基斯坦是世界第五和第八大小麦生产国,分别遭受了火灾和水灾的侵袭,这些自然灾害为日益呈现的饥馑恐慌添上了浓重的色彩。到2050年,世界谷物的产量必须增长50%,而肉产量必须翻一番才能满足人类的生存需要。但这并不容易实现。因为谷物产量的增长正日趋减缓,可用于耕种的土地愈见稀少,再生水资源正消耗殆尽。
The world has been here before. In 1967 Paul Ehrlich, a Malthusian, wrote that “the battle to feed
all of humanity is over… In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.” Five years later, in “The Limits to Growth”, the Club of Rome (a group of business people and academics) argued that the world was running out of raw materials and that societies would probably collapse in the 21st century.
但我们赖以生存的世界却从来没变。1967 年马尔萨斯人保罗.埃利希(Paul Ehrlich)曾写道 \养活人类的战争已经终结...本世纪70和80年代将有成千上万的人因饥饿致死。\五年后,罗马俱乐部 (由商业人士和学者组成的团体)在其\发展的极限\报告中指出世界的原材料正逐渐耗尽,人类社会可能在21世纪面临灭亡。
A year after “The Limits to Growth” appeared, however, and at a time when soaring oil prices seemed to confirm the Club of Rome’s worst fears, a country which was then a large net food importer decided to change the way it farmed. Driven partly by fear that it would not be able to import enough food, it decided to expand domestic production through scientific research, not subsidies. Instead of trying to protect farmers from international competition—as much of the world still does—it opened up to trade and let inefficient farms go to the wall. This was all the more remarkable because most of the country was then regarded as unfit for agricultural production.
然而一年后\发展的极限\效应显现,石油价格曾一度飙升,罗马俱乐部最深层次的担忧似乎得到了证实。在历经了巨大的粮食进口净值后,一个国家决定要改变自己耕种的方式。变革的部分动力源于该国担忧进口不到足够的粮食,所以决定依靠农业科学研究而不是外援来扩大国内粮食生产。他们并没有沿袭世界大多数国家仍采用的保护本国农民免于国际竞争的做法,而是放开贸易市场,让低效农业在竞争中得以淘汰。由于该国大部分地方被认为不适合农业生产,因而这样的做法就更加受到人们关注。
The country was Brazil. In the four decades since, it has become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the “big five” food exporters (America, Canada, Australia, Argentina and the European Union).
这个国家就是巴西。四十多年来,它成为首个热带农业的龙头和第一个挑战 \五大\粮食出产国(美国,加拿大,澳大利亚,阿根廷,欧盟)主导地位的国家。
Even more striking than the fact of its success has been the manner of it. Brazil has followed more or less the opposite of the agro-pessimists’ prescription. For them, sustainability is the greatest virtue and is best achieved by encouraging small farms and organic practices. They frown on monocultures and chemical fertilisers. They like agricultural research but loathe genetically modified (GM) plants. They think it is more important for food to be sold on local than on international markets. Brazil’s farms are sustainable, too, thanks to abundant land and water. But they are many times the size even of American ones. Farmers buy inputs and sell crops on a scale that makes sense only if there are world markets for them. And they depend critically on new technology. As the briefing explains, Brazil’s progress has been underpinned by the state agricultural-research company and pushed forward by GM crops. Brazil represents a clear alternative to the growing belief that, in farming, small and organic are beautiful.
与其成功的事实相比,更引人注目的是它一直以来采用的方法。巴西采用的方法或多或少与农业悲观主义者的权威推荐背道而驰。对他们来说,坚持可持续发展是它最大的长处,这一点在鼓励发展小农场和有机种植中得到了最好的实现。他们反对单种栽培和化肥添加,喜欢农业研究但憎恶转基因植物,认为粮食在本地出售比拿到国际市场上交易更为重要。由于有富饶的土地和充足的水源,巴西的农场也实现了可持续发展。他们的规模甚至比美国同业还大数倍。如果国际市场对某种作物有需求,农民就购买生产资料并只按合理的规模出售他们的作物。他们主要依靠的是新科技。正如简要中介绍的那样,巴西的进步源于国家农研公司的不懈努力和转基因作物的推动。巴西提供给人们另一种明确的出路,让人们越发相信小型和有机种植业有大好前景。
That alternative commands respect for three reasons. First, it is magnificently productive. It is not too much to talk about a miracle, and one that has been achieved without the huge state subsidies that prop up farmers in Europe and America. Second, the Brazilian way of farming is more likely to do good in the poorest countries of Africa and Asia. Brazil’s climate is tropical, like theirs. Its success was built partly on improving grasses from Africa and cattle from India. Of course there are myriad reasons why its way of farming will not translate easily, notably that its success was achieved at a time when the climate was relatively stable whereas now uncertainty looms. Still, the basic ingredients of Brazil’s success—agricultural research, capital-intensive large farms, openness to trade and to new farming techniques—should work elsewhere.
这种方法得到重视是由于以下三种原因。首先它的产量惊人,说它是奇迹也毫不过分。但他们取得这样的成果却完全不是象欧美国家农民那样得到了政府巨额资金的支持。第二,巴西人的种植方法可能对亚洲和非洲的最贫穷国家更有借鉴意义,因为巴西和他们一样也是热带气候。它取得成功的部分原因是由于改良了非洲引进的草料植物和改善了印度引进的牛种品质。当然它的种植方式在其它地方不容易得到推广有着众多的原因，最显著的是它每次的成功都是在气候条件相对稳定的条件下取得,而现在不确定的因素随时出现。但是巴西的一些基本做法还是可以为其他国家所借鉴学习,如成功的农业研究,资本密集型的大型农场,开放的农业贸易和种植新科技。
Plant the plains, save the forests 平原种植，还地于林
Third, Brazil shows a different way of striking a balance between farming and the environment. The country is accused of promoting agriculture by razing the Amazon forest. And it is true that there has been too much destructive farming there. But most of the revolution of the past 40 years has taken place in the cerrado, hundreds of miles away. Norman Borlaug, who is often called the father of the Green Revolution, said the best way to save the world’s imperilled ecosystems would be to grow so much food elsewhere that nobody would need to touch the natural wonders. Brazil shows that can be done.
第三,巴西在平衡农业生产和保护环境方面采取了不同的方法。有人指责巴国靠夷平了亚马逊森林来促进农业发展。那里也确实有大量破坏性的农业开发。但是过去四十年时间,大多数变革是在距亚马逊森林数百英里的塞拉多（cerrado）进行的。经常被人称作\绿色革命之
父\的Norman Borlaug[1]说,要想挽救处于危机中的世界生态系统,最好的方法是在人类不对自然景观造成影响的地方能够种植大量的粮食。巴国表示这能够做到。
It also shows that change will not come about by itself. Four decades ago, the country faced a farm crisis and responded with decisive boldness. The world is facing a slow-motion food crisis now. It should learn from Brazil.
但它也表明变革不会不请自来。四十年前当巴国面临农业危机的时候,他们采取了大胆果断的应对措施。现在世界正慢慢的陷入粮食危机。我们应该从巴西的成功中学到些什么。
Leaders
[注释]
[1] Norman Borlaug 经常被称为“拯救了 10 亿生命的人”和“绿色革命之父”。他在 19 世纪 60 年代帮助印度和巴基斯坦人民和饥饿作斗争，曾为墨西哥的国际玉米和小麦改良中心担任顾问。他赢得了 1970 年的诺贝尔和平奖，还接受过总统布什颁发的国会金质奖章，这个奖项是国会颁发的最高非军人荣誉。在接受奖章的时候，他呼吁国会和行政部门提高农业发展援助。他说这个世界需要更好和更多的技术对付饥饿。用他的话说就是“饥饿、贫穷和痛苦是培养各种主义的一个很肥沃的土壤，这些主义中包括恐怖主义。”