CMGC是一个复利概念,它把短期的剧烈波动因素去除掉,是对产品或者产业的增长潜力、变迁趋势进行评估的长期视角。
常见的复合增长率是CAGC(Compounded Annually Growth Rate,年复合增长率)。对于高速增长的初创企业使用CMGC更加容易看出高速增长行业内横向对比的业务增长趋势。
这是一个gauge(标尺)工具,看的是大致的水平在什么地方,并不要求非常精准。
Often this measured as the simple average of monthly growth rates. But investors often prefer to measure it as CMGR (Compounded Monthly Growth Rate) since CMGR measures the periodic growth, especially for a marketplace. Using CMGR [CMGR = (Latest Month/ First Month)^(1/# of Months) -1] also helps you benchmark growth rates with other companies. This would otherwise be difficult to compare due to volatility and other factors. The CMGR will be smaller than the simple average in a growing business. 第十一、流失率(Churn)
流失率对于SaaS业务来说是至关重要的指标。用户流失可能引起MRR(月度经常性收入)的下降。 对于MRR的流失率有两个计算维度:
一个是MRR毛流失率,即当月流失的MRR/月初MRR;
一个是MRR净流失率,即(当月流失的MRR-原有用户的MRR增长数)/月初MRR。
MRR毛流失率反应了稳定状态下用户自然流失引起的MRR下降水平,反应了公司产品/服务对用户的维系能力。
MRR净流失率考虑了公司对现有用户进行增量销售的因素。对于SaaS服务公司而言,这个指标非常重要,因为它显示了公司未来服务升级的能力。
对于SaaS公司而言,单纯希望依靠获取新客户实现长期增长几乎是不可能的事情,所以up-selling和cross selling的能力就格外重要。你依靠什么长期留住现有客户?如何让他们愿意多花钱购买更多的服务?这里要考虑的不仅仅是眼前的产品形态,还必须考虑自己的战略路径安排。 这里有一个cohort analysis(断代分析)的概念,就是把每个月的新用户分组(每个月的用户合称为一个cohort)后记录其留存率。 组内纵向对比可以看出留存率的变化趋势;
组间横向对比可以看出后面的cohort是否较之前的cohort在留存率上有所提升。
另外,对于高速增长的SaaS公司而言,用户续约率(Customer Renewal Rate)也是一个非常关键的指标。这个指标衡量的是当期到期用户的续约比例,在大量合同同时到期的时候需要格外关注,它反应了用户对服务的粘性和满意程度。
There’re all kinds of churn — dollar churn, customer churn, net dollar churn — and there are varying definitions for how churn is measured. For
example, some companies measure it on a revenue basis annually, which blends upsells with churn.
Investors look at it the following way:
Monthly unit churn = lost customers/prior month total Retention by cohort
Month 1 = 100% of installed base
Latest Month = % of original installed base that are still transacting It is also important to differentiate between gross churn and net revenue churn —
Gross churn: MRR lost in a given month/MRR at the beginning of the month.
Net churn: (MRR lost minus MRR from upsells) in a given month/MRR at the beginning of the month.
The difference between the two is significant. Gross churn estimates the actual loss to the business, while net revenue churn understates the losses (as it blends upsells with absolute churn). 第十二、现金消耗率(Burn Rate)
现金是企业运转、扩张的血液,进攻、防守和抵御风险的弹药,因此,创业者、企业家对于公司的现金流和现金消耗情况必须非常关注。 Burn rate俗称烧钱率,代表了现金储备的消耗速度。应该如何理解它呢?
单纯的看现金消耗率,分为净现金消耗率和毛现金消耗率:
毛现金消耗的驱动因素就是公司在特定期间的现金流出总量; 净现金消耗是公司在特定期间内收入的现金部分减去毛现金消耗的数字。它与期初现金余额的反映了在不进行筹资活动的情况下公司未来现金可支撑的时间长度。
投资人需要知道创业团队的现金的支出计划,创业者需要知道钱花到什么程度时应该达到什么业务水平、什么时候需要进行后续融资。通过对现金支出的预算,创业者可以更好的把握公司的成本结构
现金的消耗率(现金净流出)受到三类活动的共同影响。这三类活动分别是经营活动(生产及销售商品,提供服务的活动)、投资活动(长期资产的构建及处置)和融资活动(直接引起企业负债或所有者权益变动的活动)。区分这三类性质不同的活动是为了在分析现金变动时明白影响因素的性质及其来源。
由于三类活动的共同影响,现金的消耗率在各个月份之间一定不是一成不变甚至会有较高的波动。
现金消耗率没有好坏之分,必须结合行业背景、公司发展阶段来具体分析现状和未来。
Burn rate is the rate at which cash is decreasing. Especially in early stage startups, it’s important to know and monitor burn rate as companies fail when they are running out of cash and don’t have enough time left to raise funds or reduce expenses. As a reminder, here’s a simple calculation:
Monthly cash burn = cash balance at the beginning of the year minus cash balance end of the year / 12
It’s also important to measure net burn vs. gross burn:
Net burn [revenues (including all incoming cash you have a high probability of receiving) – gross burn] is the true measure of amount of cash your company is burning every month.
Gross burn on the other hand only looks at your monthly expenses + any other cash outlays.
Investors tend to focus on net burn to understand how long the money you have left in the bank will last for you to run the company. They will also take into account the rate at which your revenues and expenses grow as monthly burn may not be a constant number. 第十三、 下载数(Downloads)
对于投资人而言,单纯的下载数没有太大意义,能够显示出用户参与活跃度的数字才有评估价值。
和上文的流失率(churn)一样,cohort analysis(断代分析)也可以用于对用户活跃度的分析。
组内纵向对比可以看出用户活跃度的变化趋势;
组间横向对比可以看出后面的cohort是否较之前的cohort在用户活跃度上有所提升。
Downloads (or number of apps delivered by distribution deals) are really just a vanity metric.
Investors want to see engagement, ideally expressed as cohort retention on metrics that matter for that business — for example, DAU (daily active users), MAU (monthly active users), photos shared, photos viewed, and so on.