个开放世界,并且中国的发展不能与世界分离.因此,决定抓住历史机会,把工作中心转移到经济发展上来。中国通过改革开放,扶持国内市场以及开发国际市场.在完成这个任务,具体做法包括在农村地区开展家庭联产承包责任制,在沿海地区建立四个特别经济区域以及开放14个沿海城市. 这些积极措施是当前改革的前奏.
Strategic Choice战略选择
In the 1990s,China was once again faced with a strategic choice, due to the Asian financial crisis and the wrestling between the forces for and against globalization. The Chinese leadership carefully weighted up the positive and negative aspects of economic globalization and seeking advantages while avoiding disadvantages. Such a move lifted China’s reform and opening up to a higher level. 在90年代,由于亚洲金融危机以及支持和反对全球化的力量对比,中国再次面对一个战略选择,。中国领导审慎地考量了经济全球化的正反两方面因素,努力扬长避短。 这一策略将中国的改革开放提升到更高的水平。
I want to stress that while participating in economic globalization, we should afford and should not expect to rely on its own strength. 我想强调,当参加经济全球化时,我们应该承受得起并且不应该完全依靠它本身的力量。
That is to say, it has to fully and consciously depend on its own institutional innovation, tapping the growing domestic market, converting its hefty savings deposits into investment, improving the quality of life for its citizens, and solving its resource shortage and environmental problem through scientific and technological progress. 也就是说,中国必须通过科学技术的发展,充分和自觉的依靠自己的制度创新,开发正在发展的国内市场,把国内大量的储蓄转变成投资,提高人民生活水平以及解决它的资源短缺和环境问题.
In a word, we have to rely on the resources of both domestic and international markets and bring all positive factors into play, so as to resolve the big development problem and realize our great ambition. 总之,我们必须依靠国内和国际市场资源,充分发挥所有积极因素的作用,以便解决大的发展问题,实现我们的宏伟志向。
I would also like to emphasize that this is not only a path of striving for development, but also a path of adhering to peace and never seeking hegemony. 我同样想强调这不仅是一条求发展的道路,而且是一条维护和平,永远不会寻求霸权的道路。
Peaceful Growth the Key和平发展的关键
The experience of big powers contending for hegemony in contemporary history testifies to fact that the rise of a big power often resulting drastic change in the international arena and world order, which can even result in a world war. An important reason behind this is that big powers launched a war of aggression and external expansion, which is doomed to failure. 当代历史上大国寻求霸权主义的经历证实了这
样的事实:一个超级力量的上升经常会导致国际舞台和世界秩序上的剧烈变化,甚而导致世界大战。这个事件背后的一个重要原因是,超级力量所发动的侵略和外部扩张战争是注定失败的。
China’s only choice is to strive for growth, more importantly, strive for peaceful growth. That is to say, we have to work for a peaceful international environment for the sake of our development and, at the same time, safeguard would peace through our development. 中国的唯一的选择是力求发展,尤其是和平发展。也就是说,我们必须为我们的发展寻求一个和平的国际环境,同时,通过我们的发展维护国际和平。
In this respect, there are three most important strategic principles: First, we must unswervingly boost our economic and political restructuring, centering on the promotion of socialist market economic and socialist democracy, to ensure institutional guarantee foe our peaceful growth. Second, we must boldly draw on the fruits of human civilization while fostering the Chinese civilization, to ensure culture support for China’s peaceful growth. Third, we must carefully balance the interests of different sectors, securing a coordinated development between urban and rural areas, between man and nature, to create a social environment for China’s strategic path for peaceful growth. 对此,有三项最重要的战略原则: 第一,我们必须坚定不移推进我们经济政治的体制改革,以促进社会主义市场经济和社会主义民主为中心,为我们的和平发展提供制度保障。其次,我们要在大胆吸取人类文明的果实的基础上促进中国文明,为中国的和平发展提供文化支持。 第三,我们必须小心地平衡好不同部门的利益,确保城乡之间,人和自然之间的协调发展,为中国和平发展的战略道路创造一个社会环境。
In conclusion, I would like to make the following judgment based in history and the prevalent current situation: Generally speaking, in the coming two or three decades, Asia will be facing a rare historical opportunity for peaceful growth, of which China will be a part. This not only means that China’s reform, opening up and growth are partly attributable to the experience and development of other Asian countries, but also means that China, as an Asian country, will play a more positive and useful role in the development, prosperity and stability of all the other Asian countries, its neighbors in particular. 总而言之,我希望在历史和当前普遍形势的基础上作出以下结论:一般来说,在以后的二三十年内,亚洲(包括中国)将要面对一个难得的和平发展的历史机遇.这不仅意味着中国的改革开放和成长是部分归功于其他亚洲国家的发展经验,而且一个亚洲国家的中国,将会在其他所有亚洲国家(尤其是他的邻国)的发展、繁荣和稳定中扮演一个更重要积极的角色.
Well-off 小康
Household contract system 家庭联产承包责任制 Resource shortage
资源短缺
Population and Poverty Reduction
人口和减少贫困
1. Boosting Growth to Lift People out of Poverty加速经济增长,使人民
摆脱贫困
A paradox of the second half of the 20th century is that the would population underwent unprecedented growth-from 2.5 billion in 1950 to more than 6 billion in 2001-even as the population growth rate was declining. The decline was triggered largely by a drop in fertility rates. Between 1852 and 2001 fertility rates fell from 5.1 to 2.7 births per woman. Thus while the population grew by 1.5 percent a year in 1980-2001, the growth rate is expected to drop to 1 percent in 2001-2005.20世纪后半叶曾有这样一种看似矛盾的说法:即使人口增长率在不断下降,世界人口仍将经历一次空前的增长,即从1950年的25亿增至2001年的60亿以上.人口增长率的降低的主要原因是出生率的降低.在1852至2001年间,出生率由每名妇女生产5.1个婴儿降至2.7个婴儿。因此,在1980-2001年间,尽管人口以每年1.5%的速率递增,在2001-2005年间,增长率将会降至1%。
During the transition from high fertility and rapid population growth to lower fertility and slower growth, the working-age population expand relative to the dependent (younger and older) population, opening a demographic window of opportunity for economic growth. Countries can take advantage of this one-time opportunity if they invest appropriately in their human an physical capital and create employment opportunities for youth and for those who have not been working for wages. Several countries in East Asia, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, and a few Latin America, such as Brazil and Mexico, have done so. Bur South Asian countries that are now moving into the later stage of their transition to low fertility may not benefit from the demographic transition if they do not encourage growth, investment, and human capital development. The demographic window for these countries will close within a generation.从高出生率的人口快速增长期到低出生率的人口慢速增长期的过渡期间,相对于被抚养人口(老幼人口),工作年龄人口扩大了。从人口统计学的角度来看,这为经济增长提供了机会。国家可以通过对人力和实物资本的适当投资以及为青年人和非雇用人口创造就业机会来利用好这个一次性的机会。一些国家已经这样做了,比如东亚的韩国,泰国以及拉丁美洲的巴西和墨西哥。但是,如果不鼓励经济发展,投资及人力资本的发展,那些现在进入低出生率过渡期后期的南亚国家将不能从这次人口过渡的机会中受益。而且,在一代人的时间之内,这扇人口带来的机会的窗口将会对这些国家关闭。
In many developing countries agriculture is still the main economic activity. As economies grow, more people work for wages. In most countries wages are rising steadily, increasing prosperity and raising standards of living.在许多发展中国家,农业仍然是主要的经济活动。随着
经济的发展,将会有更多的人成为雇用人口。在大多数国家,工资的稳定增长促进了繁荣,提高了人民生活水平。
In developing countries gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.3 percent a year in 1990s, and the share of people living on less than $1 a day fell from 29 percent to 23 percent. By 1999, 125 million fewer people were living in extreme poverty. But the poorest are often excluded from all but the lowest level of economic activity.20世纪90年代,发展中国家的国内生产总值以3.3%的速率逐年递增。每日生存花费低于一美元的人口比例从29%降至23%。截至1999年,生活在极度贫困中的人口数量减少了一亿两千五百万。但是,除了最低水平的经济活动,最贫困人口总是被其它经济活动排除在外。
Progress in reducing poverty has been uneven. Within countries, the large gaps in social indicators between rich and poor confirm the persistence of deprivation. Globally, much of the decline in income poverty took place in East Asia, where sustained growth in China has lifted neared 150 million people out of poverty since 1990. And faster growth in India has led to a modest decline in the number of poor people in South Asia. But in other regions the number of poor people has increased even as their share in the population has declined-and in Europe and Central Asia both the number and the share of poor people has risen. Unemployment is high in many of the formerly centrally planned economies, with long-term unemployment hovering around 50 percent of total unemployment in the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Latvia in 1998-2001.消除贫困的进程的发展是不均衡的。在各个国家,社会指数显示的贫富之间的巨大差异,证明了剥削的持续。从全世界来看,贫困人口的减少主要发生在东亚。从1990起,中国的持续发展已经使一亿五千万人口脱离了贫困。印度的较快发展也使得南亚的贫困人数有所减少。但是在其他地区,虽然在总人口的所占比率降低了,但贫困人口的数量仍在增加。甚至在欧洲和中亚地区,贫困人口的数量和所占比率都在上升。1998-2001年间,在捷克,爱沙尼亚,拉脱维亚这样的从前是中央计划经济的国家,失业率很高。其中长期失业人口占总失业人口的近50%。
2. Enhancing Security for Poor People提高贫困人口的保障水平 Poor people face many risks. They face labor market risks, often having to take precarious jobs in the informal sector and put their children to work to increase household income. In Sub-Saharan Africa one in three children ages 10-14 was in the labor force in 2001. poor people also face health risks, with illness and injury having both direct and opportunity costs. In South Asia nearly 80 percent of all spending on health comes from private source, much of it out of pocket, exposing many households to the impoverishing effects of needed health care.贫困人口面临许多风险。他们面临劳动市场的风险,不得不常常在非正规的部门从事不稳定的工作,迫使孩子工作以增加家庭收入。2001年,在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区,在10-14岁的孩子中,有三分之一成为了劳动力。贫困人
民同样面临健康的风险,伤病会同时消耗直接成本和机会成本。在南亚,所有医疗健康花费中的近80%来自个人财产,这使得必须的卫生保健对许多家庭产生了贫困效应。
Enhancing security for poor people means reducing their vulnerability to ill health and economic shocks. Market-based insurance and pension schemes can reduce risk significantly, but they play only a minor role in many developing countries. In 16 developing countries public spending on pensions amounted to less than 0.5 percent of GDP in 1990s. to increase the security of poor people, national poverty reduction strategies must support their immediate consumption needs and protect their assets by ensuring access to basic services. Literacy training and health and nutrition services are often the most needed and most valued by poor people. Yet government spending in these areas remains low in many countries. In 2000 low-income countries’ public spending on health averaged 1 percent of GDP, compared with 6 percent for high-income countries.提高贫困人口的保障水平意味着降低他们面临疾病和经济危机的脆弱性。基于市场的保险和养老机制可以显著的降低贫困人口的风险,但是它在许多发展中国家仅起很小的作用。20世纪90年代,在16个发展中国家,公共支出中的养老金部分的比例低于国内生产总值的0.5%。为了提高贫困人口的保障水平,国家的扶贫策略必须通过确保他们享有公共服务的权利,来支持他们的即期消费需求和保护他们的资产。贫困人民最需要,最重视的是知识培训和健康营养服务。然而,在许多国家,政府对这些领域的投入一直很低。2000年,相对于高收入国家的6%的比率,低收入国家在保健方面的公共支出,平均只达国内生产总值的1%。
3. Building Human Capital Through Education and Health Services通过
教育和卫生服务构建人力资本
Poor people lack the means to escape poverty. Increasing the productivity of their labor through investments in education and health is often the most effective way to improve their welfare.贫困人民缺乏手段来摆脱贫穷。通过对教育和健康的投资来提高他们的劳动生产力通常是改善他们的福利的最有效的途径。
Investments in education widen horizons, making it easier for people to take advantage of new opportunities and helping them to participate in social an economic life. But despite increased spending on education, particularly primary education, enrollment rates remain low in many countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa primary enrollment rates declined between 1980 and 2000. Low primary enrollment typically reflects low participation by poor people. But in many poor countries it also has a gender dimension, reflecting traditional biases against girls “education and reliance girls” contributions to the household. One consequence of this imbalance: higher rates of illiteracy among women.对教育的投资能拓宽视野,使人们更容易利用新机会以及帮助他们参加社会和经济生活。但尽管增加了教育支出, 在许多国家,特别是初等教育的入学率依