ployees in the state-owned sector fell by 4.6 million in 2001 and by the end of 2002 had fallen by a further 4.8 million. Excluding smaller private and informal sector activities, employment in the non-state-owned sector increased by 3 million in 2002. Based on official statistics, which underestimate the problem, the urban registered unemployment rate rose from 3.6% in 2001 to 4% in 2002. If workers at state-owned enterprises (SOEs) who had not been reemployed were included, the adjusted unemployment rate would have been more than 7%. The development of an urban social safety net and reform of social security are needed to ameliorate the social costs of the economic reform program.随着经济结构调整的继续，国有制部门和城市集体制部门的就业继续下降。国有部门雇员2001年减少了460万人，到2002年底之前又多减少了480万人。排除掉更小的私人或非正式的部门活动，2002年非国有部门的雇员增长了300万人。根据官方的统计，城市登记失业率从2001年的3.6%增长到4%，它有可能低估了问题。如果将国有企业的下岗工人包含在内，调整后的失业率将会超过7%。改善经济改革问题的社会成本，需要发展城市社会保障和改革社会保险。
2.Policy Developments政策发展
Fiscal policy has played a key role in stimulating the PRC’s economic growth over the past 5 years. Then Ministry of Finance estimated that four consecutive fiscal stimulus packages contributed 1.5, 2, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in the years 1998-2001, respectively. The Government issued CNY150 billion in special bonds to finance the public deficit in 2002. these bonds were mainly used to finance public sector projects under construction, development projects in the western region, technological upgrading of key enterprises, projects to divert to divert water from the south to the north, and rural infrastructure.财政政策在过去五年扮演了刺激中国经济增长的关键角色。财政部估计在1998-2001年，四个连续的财政激励packages分别对当年的GDP做出了1.5,2.0,1.7,和1.8的贡献。2002年，政府发行了1.5亿特别债券资助公共赤字。这些公债主要用于资助在建的公共部门工程，西部地区的发展项目，重点企业的技术升级改造，南水北调工程，以及农村基础设施建设。
To promote the development of an integrated national market and fair competition between enterprise in different regions, the Government changed the methodology of income tax sharing between the central and local governments. From I January 2002, corporate income tax revenues were no longer divided according to the jurisdiction of the enterprise. Except for several special industries, most of the corporate income tax and all personal income tax revenue were shared between the central and local authorities at a fixed ratio. The central Government used the income tax increase resulting from the reform for transfer payments from the central budget to local authorities, especially those in the central and western regions. Government procurement procedures were also strengthened.为了促进国内市场一体化的发展以及不同地
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区企业的公平竞争，政府改变了中央和地方政府对所得税的分配方法。从2002年1月1日起，公司所得税收入不再根据企业的管辖划分。除了几个特别的行业，绝大部分公司所得税和所有的个人所得税收入按照固定的比例被中央和地方分享。The central government used the income tax increase resulting from the reform for transfer payments from the central budget to local authorities, especially those in the central and western regions. Government procurement procedures were also strengthened.中央政府为转拨款项使用了所得税增量起因于改革从中央预算到地方政府，特别是那些在中央和西部地区。政府采购规程也被加强了。
With WTO accession, the Government accelerated the pace of reforming then domestic economy. A series of adjustments in fiscal and tax policies was made in the first year after WTO accession including: (i)reducing tariffs on more than 5300 commodities, resulting in the general tariff level dropping from 15.3% to 12% ( and further to 11% in early 2003); (ii) eliminating different treatments between domestic and foreign enterprise, such as unifying accounting standards, by applying the same tax rate reduction on investment in encouraged sectors and in the western region; and (iii) raising the export rebate rates on cotton, rice, wheat, and corn exports from 5% to 13%.随着加入wto组织，政府加速了改革国内经济的步伐。在加入WTO的第一年后，做出了一系列财税政策的调整，包括：（i）超过5300种商品的关税被降低，致使整体关税水平从15.3%降低到12.0%（2003年以前降低到11%）;(ii)消除国内和国外企业的差别对待，例如统一会计标准，对在被鼓励发展的部门和西部地区的投资适用相同的税率减免。(iii)将棉花，大米，小麦，玉米的出口退税率从5%提高到13%。
On the monetary front, the Government adopted several measures to stimulate domestic demand and took substantial steps to fulfill its WTO commitments. Concerned that the decline in SOCB lending could aggravate deflationary pressure, PBC adopted the following measures: (i) it cut the 1-year lending rate by 0.5 percentage point to 5.3% in February; (ii) it raised the target growth rate for M2 from 13% to 14% in May; and (iii) it issued a directive in mid-2002 urging SOCBs to increase lending to consumers and small and medium enterprise (SMEs).在货币阵线上，政府采取一些措施刺激国内需求并且迈出坚定的步伐去履行它在WTO的承诺。考虑到国有银行的贷款下降会恶化通货紧缩的压力，中国人民银行采取了以下措施：（i）在二月将一年期贷款利率降低了0.5百分点到5.3%；（ii）在五月将M2的目标增长率从13%调到14%；（iii）在2002年中发布指令催促各商业银行对消费者和中小企业增加贷款额度。
3. 2003-2004年展望
The economy will face downward pressure over the next 2 years. Within a less expansionary fiscal policy, low growth in the rural sector, and the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), economic growth is forecast at 7.3% for 2003.未来两年经济将要面对下降的压
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力。由于较为稳健的财政政策，农村部门的低增长，SARS的影响，2003年经济增长预计为7.3%。
After record trade levels and government spending in 2002, exports and investment growth will slow in 2003. First, exports will not match 2002’s rate of expansion as growth in import demand in its biggest markets, the US and Japan, is expected to be modest and growth of imports will exceed that of exports, resulting in a smaller trade surplus. Second, the Government’s growing budget deficit will limit the continued use of fiscal stimulus packages. Worries about rising debt are expected to constrain government bond sales to finance more infrastructure and construction projects. There is a growing need to reduce debts in other sectors of the economy as the Government contemplates another huge bank bailout and ways to fund its fledging pension system. As the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus tapers off in 2003, growth of investment in fixed assets will rely more heavily on the private sector and FDI.在创纪录的贸易水平和政府开销的2002年过去后，2003年的出口和投资增长将变慢。首先，出口将不会达到2002年的增长率，因为美国和日本这两个最大市场，进口需求的增长预计会变得适度，并且进口的增长将会超过出口，导致贸易顺差的变少。第二，政府的预算赤字将会限制一揽子积极财政政策的继续作用。对增长的债务的担心预计将会抑制政府公债的销售，其会投资更多的基础设施投资和建设工程。
Although consumption will be robust, the consumption pattern may change with more money being spent on housing, cars, and tourism. However, services will suffer from the spread of SARS. Due to large excess capacity in many industries and cheap imports related to WTO trade liberalization, deflationary pressure will remain in 2003. CPI inflation is forecast at 0.5%. Substantial FDI inflows will partly offset the decline in the current account surplus resulting from the deteriorating trade balance. The current account surplus will be 1.6% of GDP in 2003.尽管消费将会强劲，消费模式将会变得更多的消费在住房，汽车，旅游上。然而，服务业将会遭受SARS传播的影响。由于WTO贸易自由化带来的大量过剩的工业与廉价进口，通货紧缩压力在2003年将持续。CPI将膨胀0.5%。大量的外商直接投资流入将部分抵消由于贸易平衡恶化所带来的国际收支经常项目顺差的下降。国际收支经常项目顺差将占2003年GDP的1.6%。
If the world economy experiences a modest recovery, domestic private sector investment gathers momentum, and rural incomes rise moderately, then the economy will maintain its high growth in 2004, projected at 7.6%. With the deepening of economic reforms and industrial restructuring, excess capacity and supply should be gradually absorbed or transferred to emerging industries or sectors. Inflation will likely be moderate at 1%. The current account id forecast at 1.5% of GDP.如果世界经济经历一个适当的恢复，国内私人部门投资聚集起动力，并且农村收入适当的提高，那么2004年经济将维持一个较高的增长，预计为7.6%。随着经
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济改革的深化和工业结构调整，过剩的产能和供给将逐渐地被新兴的行业和部门所吸引或转移。通货膨胀很有可能稳定在1%。国际收支经常项目顺差预计为GDP的1.5%。
In the next 5 years or so, the most important challenge foe the PRC’s policy makers is job creation, because, as the country continues its economic restructuring and reform of SOEs, more workers will be laid off. These workers will join about 8 million new labor market entrants and rural migrants in their search for jobs each year. It will not be possible for the country to reduce poverty and maintain social stability unless economic growth becomes more employment intensive, implying that the economy will need to shift from resource-extensive to labor-intensive growth.在今后大约五年时间，中国政策制定者面临的最大挑战是创造就业机会，因为，随着国家经济改组和国企改革的继续，更多的工人下岗了。这些人将会和农民工一起加入每年大约新增的800万人的劳动力市场。国家不可能减少贫困和维持社会稳定，除非经济增长变得更加劳动力密集，那意味着经济需要从资源消耗型向劳动密集型转变。
The private sector is playing the key role in job creation, generating almost all new jobs between 1996 and 2002. to create a better enabling environment for the private sector, the Government needs to emphasize improving the legal framework and judicial system; honoring contracts; eliminating take products and protecting intellectual property rights; converting legitimate fees and charges into taxes and abolishing illegal and arbitrary fees; reducing administrative bureaucracy; removing local protectionism, barriers to interprovincial trade, and other factors preventing fair competition; and setting better accounting and auditing standards and improving disclosure and enforcement.私人部门在创造就业机会方面扮演了关键角色， 1996-2002年之间几乎所有新的工作岗位都由其创造产生。为了给私人部门创造更加宽松的环境，政府需要着重改进法律体制和司法制度；重合同守信用；消灭假货和保护知识产权；进行费改税并且消除不合法收费和乱收费；减少官僚机构；消除地方保护主义，省际间贸易障碍，以及其他妨碍公平竞争的因素；设定更好的会计和审计标准并且提高透明度和执法力度。
Income inequality within regions, the gap between rural and urban areas, as well as disparities between the eastern region and western region (where most of the poor live) have all widened. Addressing the issues of poverty and inequality is essential to maintain broad-based public support for the country’s reform program. More jobs need to be created for the poor and economic growth promoted in rural areas and in interior provinces. This calls for strengthening policies and institutions, developing infrastructure, addressing land degradation,
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and supporting human resources development. Other measures required include strengthening social safety nets and the social security system, initially in urban areas and gradually in rural areas; improving poverty reduction programs with better targeting; encouraging poor people to participate in decisions that affect them; and undertaking pro-poor fiscal reform, particularly at the provincial and sub-provincial levels.地区间收入不平等，农村和城市的差异，以及东西部地区间的差距（西部更多穷人）全都加大了。为了维持广大群众支持国家的改革事业，必须针对贫困和不平等采取相关措施。需要为穷人创造更多的工作机会并且促进农村地区和内陆省份的经济增长。这需要加强政策和制度建设，发展基础设施，治理土地退化，支持人力资源开发。另外一些措施包括：加强社会安全网络和社会保障体系，要从城市开始逐渐到农村地区；更好地实现脱贫计划；鼓励穷人参与那些关系切身利益的决策；采取有利于穷人的财政改革，尤其是在省级和省级以下的层次上。 Although the economic growth rate has been impressive, the efficiency of resource use can still be improved. The financial sector does not allocate capital efficiently. A large volume of NPLs and a poorly performing banking system have hindered the development of an efficient nationwide financial system and imposed large costs on the economy, and represent a potential systemic risk. WTO entry and short-term challenges associated with trade and financial liberalization will exacerbate vulnerabilities in the financial system.尽管经济增长率令人印象深刻，资源利用的效率仍有待提高。财政部门不能做到资本的有效分配。大量的不良贷款和效率低下的银行系统阻碍了一个高效的全国性的金融系统的发展并且对经济加重了大量成本，而且体现了潜在的系统性风险。加入WTO和由贸易和金融自由化所带来的短期挑战将会加重金融系统的脆弱性。
To counter these risks, the Government needs to institute regulatory reform and information disclosure mechanisms in the financial sector conforming to international standards. Other measures required in a sequenced approach to liberalizing the financial sector include resolving NPLs; diversifying ownership of financial institutions; giving more autonomy to PBC and financial regulatory agencies; liberalizing interest rates; allowing foreign participation and the development of private banks; opening the capital account in phases after strengthening domestic institutions; and establishing a sound, flexible, and resilient exchange rate regime.为了规避这些风险，政府需要制定管制改革并且金融部门的信息披露机制需要遵从国际标准。还需要一系列有序的方法放松金融部门，包括解决不良贷款；金融机构产权多样化；给与人行和金融管理机
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