毕业论文(模板)(5)

2019-04-21 11:11

合并在意大利银行的信贷政策,并报告说,在市场兼并的情况下,利率收取综合银行减少,如果合并涉及收购银行与小的市场份额。然而,作为当地市场份额所收购银行的增加,下降是由市场力量所抵消。爱德华兹( 1965)检查浓度和竞争的影响258 Idrees卡瓦贾美国银行业,并认为合并产生较大的负面在浓度较低的市场对性能的影响。监管机构应,因此,要警惕在浓度较低的市场兼并高达 他们是在比较集中的市场。

3.研究方法和数据

我们利用所使用的息差的经销模式马丁内斯(2004年) ,以指定一个模型来检查在银行方面,其经营成本,成本的市场结构监管部门和各种宏观经济变量可能影响的息差。在这里,我们还包括了短期政府由银行作为决定因素的息差,持有的债务而以往的研究还没有做。动机是,银行发现它有利于投资。在几个方面政府债券:投资于政府文件是少有风险的,它并不意味着一个大的管理和分析成本,使一个投资决策,最重要的,如果货币政策偏紧,返回政府文件可能是这样的投资成为一个对自己有吸引力的机会。投资于政府债券的成本是较小的和返回相对较大;这样的投资很可能会提高保证金如果银行在更高的回报不传递给他们的客户,也就是说,借款人及存款。在模型中纳入政府债券是更重要的,因为传闻证据表明,政府债券挤走贷款给私营部门。以我们的领先优势从卡瓦贾和DIN (2007年) ,我们还包括在银行我们的模型的兴趣不敏感的存款比重举行。该理由是,银行不需要提供此类存款更高的回报,其中流量不敏感所提供的利率。从而,一个更大的应得利益不敏感的存款可能会降低整体资金成本为银行,从而提高息差。约50%的业务量,存款和贷款,由五个或六个主要举行银行。鉴于这些存款的显著部分,这是我们长期利率不敏感的存款,涉及到自身的银行(即没有任何努力对银行的一部分) ,成本为存款动员的银行很可能是相当低的。例如,政府部门大多银行与巴基斯坦国营国家银行,而军队只与阿斯卡里,这是由陆军福利信托基金,这是国有银行建立促进军队离退休员工的福利。同样,很多人钱存入银行的唯一目的安全的,并且不关心回报率。存款通常通过提供在巴基斯坦银行的产品包括活期存款,储蓄存款和定期存款。活期账户中存款的零税率,也就是说,他们不赚取任何利益,因此不敏感变化的利率。我们对待置于储蓄存款账户利息不敏感的,因为它们是由典型的小举行存款和谁维护这些帐户以满足受薪人士日常理财需要,而不是赚取利息。 其他类存款账户“构成总存款的比例可以忽略不计,而将其列入对任何一方不太可能影响结果。这些存款也兴趣不敏感。从理论上讲,改变政策利率,这里所代理的六个月国库券利率,应传递,在竞争环境中,以沉积速率。然而, 存款使银行保持自身所有的有利或部分改变利率和传递给代理的全部负担,甚至更多,如果在政策利率的变化是不利

的银行。由此,更大的息不敏感的存款,较高的息差。鉴于目前的存款(活期账户)及储蓄存款,这我们认为不敏感,构成总数的相当一部分( 66% )业存款在2009年,在列入利息不敏感的存款该模型是更重要的。在这里,它的息差,定义为之间的区别赚取的平均资产的利息及平均支付的利息负债; ( α,β)是参数向量,它是随机误差项,并且它是解释性变量的矢量,其中包括以下内容。 行业变量①浓度、②公司(银行)的变量、③行政成本、④不良贷款、⑤股东权益。

宏观变量①短期债务(政府债务浮动)、②实际产出、③实际利率。 产业组织文献中提供了两种相互竞争的假设有关行业的市场结构。该SCP假说认为,市场集中度导致官商勾结中公司。随着勾结是在一个集中的市场较小的成本,公司能够串通,从而获得租金。鉴于市场力量,银行会赚取更多的资产可能比在竞争激烈的市场中,并支付相对较少的负债,从而提高息差。如果对SCP假说成立,则浓度变应随身携带一积极的迹象。有效结构假说声称,高效在同行业中领先的公司运作赶出低效率的,市场变得集中,企业获得李嘉图租金。到惟效率是由较低的边际成本占商品的特定质量,银行在集中市场产生输出应该找到它有利的贷款,并提供较低的利息费用存款更高的利息,从而降低了利润率。因此,如果高效的结构假说成立,则浓度变应随身携带一个负号。给出两个相冲突的预测假设,我们用一个模糊的迹象浓度变量。该两个假设已经过测试,广泛用于银行业(伯杰和汉南, 1989) 。同时行业集中度,初级的两个变量兴趣是短期国债的数量(浮动债)和利息不敏感的存款。我们推测,这两个携带积极的迹象。浮动利息的债务预计将承担一个积极的迹象,因为作为债务的增加,利率可能上升,从而增加产生于政府债券和银行贷款。同等条件下,这提高了利润率。通常情况下,银行将支付较少的利息不敏感存款。因此,利息不敏感的存款份额较大一家银行的存款总额,资金较小的平均成本。这将提高利润率,因此,有理由对正号边距和银行资产负债组合261不敏感的存款。公式中剩余的变量( 1 )为控制变量。对流动性的系数被假设为负因为流动性有一个机会成本,即成本并非投资于高收益资产,比如“进步”,因此,增加的流动性应该做一个凹痕的息差。由银行持有的股权也带有一种机会成本。如果银行设法转嫁这一成本,存款人和借款人,然后传播将与股本积极变化。如果不这样做会降低银行的息差。鉴于冲突的期望,我们断定股本暧昧的迹象。如果银行要承担更大的中介费用筹集存款或贷款资金时,它会试图通过对存款支付较少和充电多才能收回成本贷款。因此,息差有所不同,应积极与中介费用。不良贷款 - 贷款,银行无法收回,造成一成本对银行,并应引起利润率萎缩。市场共用一个银行在同行业中的反映,前者的市场影响力和积极影响利润率。但是,规模经济伴随着较大的市场规模可

能允许银行收取借款人更少,并提供其存款等等。如果发生这种情况,保证金将与市场份额变化负面影响。这种冲突使我们断定暧昧的迹象个别银行的市场份额。宏观经济环境具有影响的潜力银行的息差。因此,我们控制了实际产出的影响,实际利率的息差。实际产出增长捕获商业周期对息差的影响。在这种情况下,伯南克和格特勒( 1989)认为,一个经济活动放缓不利的影响借款人的净资产,从而降低利息保证金(正面影响) 。对实际利率的系数会靠到改变了利率的情况下由被传递银行给客户。一个一换一过手会导致积极的信号对实际利率系数,而较小的直通会导致不同的符号。

4.进一步讨论

这引出一个答案的问题是,什么可以做,以提高息差?答案是,没有多少。然而,为了回答这个问题更清楚,我们必须先问什么含的目标息差是。它是存款人的福利或为了鼓励储蓄和投资?如果是前者,或许还有一个最低比率持续对储蓄存款将是正确的政策追求的目标。但是,虽然最低利率对储蓄存款,取得了更大的回报存款,该政策只提出对这些存款的回报,的意思是在银行系统,即使没有被提升的速度。研究人员和机构必须与问题作为格斗如何降低息差增加储蓄和 投资,增强的加息通道的有效性货币政策。随着高息差作为源息不敏感的储户的显著比例和短期债务的政府,寻找一种方法来引起凹痕利息收益率,鼓励储蓄和投资意愿的方式证明是困难的。遏制的行为前源调用转换在存款人的行为的改变,使他们更returnconscious 。经济增长也可能有助于提高份额的利率敏感的存款,因为会有更多的钱去拯救。在解决政府债务调用包含后者,减少财政赤字,这可以归结为提高整套宏观经济变量和宏观经济管理。

5.结论

银行的息差一直保持在较高端在整个过去十年。 2008年1月发起的政策力度包含保证金尚未产生效益。此外,该政策努力似乎更执导提高存款人的福利比 鼓励储蓄和投资。该研究发现,政府的短期债务,这是一个有吸引力的投资途径 银行和利息不敏感的存款.股份是两个高息差的主要决定因素。因此,本银行的资产负债结构保持利润率较高侧。给出的决定因素和方法,使这种可能缘被包含,这个过程是很有可能会成为一项艰巨的任务。

附录2

The Lahore Journal of Economics 16 : SE (September 2011): pp. 255-270

Interest Margins and Banks’ Asset-Liability Composition Idrees Khawaja* Abstract

This article examines the determinants of banks’ interest margins. The results suggest that short-term government bonds (floating debt) and the large share of interest-insensitive deposits held by banks are the key determinants of the interest margin. This is in contrast to the popular perception that the market power of the oligopolistic industry contributes to banks’ high interest margins. While a behavioral change—a greater inclination to save and an increase in output—might reduce the share of interest-insensitive deposits, the reduction in government debt depends on the state of certain macro-variables and macroeconomic management. Given these determinants and the possible ways of containing margins, the containment process is a tall order. The study also implicitly confirms that government borrowing is crowding out private investment.

Keywords: Interest Margin, Banks, Pakistan. JEL Classification: G21, G12.

1. Introduction

The rather high interest margin of banks has been a recent cause for concern for the authorities in Pakistan. This prompted the central bank (State Bank of Pakistan) to fix a mandatory floor rate on savings deposits (the features of which are more or less similar to a remunerative checking account) in January 2008. However, the interest margin did not decline despite the mandatory floor; rather, based on the coupon rate, the margin on fresh loans and deposits increased from 5.14 percent in December 2007 to 7.15 percent in March 2011. It is worth mentioning here that we consider the savings deposit to be largely insensitive to the rate of return offered. Therefore, even though the increase in returns on savings deposits may increase the income of the existing depositors, the floor rate on savings deposits may not serve to encourage savings and investment. * Associate Professor, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (P.I.D.E), Islamabad. 256 Idrees Khawaja

In recent years, the government’s domestic debt has increased enormously. The government’s frenzy to borrow on the back of high interest rates has provided banks

with an attractive investment avenue— one that is more attractive than lending. The higher return on government paper, if not passed on to the deposit and lending rate,serves to raise banks’ interest margin. Although the implications of domestic debt have been studied extensively, the variable has not been examined as a determinant of the interest margin.

The forgoing discussion looks afresh at the determinants of the interest margin in order to inform policymaking.1 A high interest margin has several adverse implications for the economy: it discourages savings and investments (Khawaja & Din, 2007); misallocates resources; and maldistributes income. What is of greater concern to the authorities is that thehigh interest margin constrains the effectiveness of the interest rate channel of monetary policy, as the changes in the policy rate are not fully transmitted to the lending and deposit rates.2 Over time, the banking industry in Pakistan has changed from public to private, with a large chunk of banking

assets being held by the private sector by 2002. The determinants of theinterest margin could be different under the private sector and public sector: while only the profit motive would motivate the private sector, the publicsector might care about agents’ welfare. Moreover, while public sector banks enjoy preferential access to low-cost government funds, they might well have to become involved in preferential and low-yield lending to the government and state-owned enterprises. The relatively smaller risk attached to deposits held by public sector banks might also allow them to tap into a larger market share. This is the first study to examine the determinants of the interest margin, with a data span (2002–09) selected such that around 80 percent of banking operations are in the private sector. The study is organized as follows. Section 2 presents a brief review of the literature. The methodology, which emphasizes the rationale for the variables included in the model, is discussed in Section 3. Section 4 explains data construction, and Section 5 presents the results followed by interpretation and analysis. Some further discussion of the results follows in Section 6, and Section 7 concludes the study. 1 This study extends Khawaja and Din (2007) on the determinants of interest spread. Here, we include short-term government debt in the model, which has become salient, given the government’s huge domestic borrowings. We also examine separately the determinants of individual components (i.e., assets and liabilities) of the margin. 2 For a discussion and empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy at the level of real economic activity, see Bernanke and Blinder (1992), Friedman and Schwartz (1963), and Romer and Romer


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