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16
附表1 中国市场化利率规则中利率实际值、规则值、及模型中各个变量值
时间 利率％ LWW规则值 LWW规则值* 新规则值 新规则值* （季度） 实际值 （?＝4％） （?＝CPI*） (?＝CPI*） （?＝4％） 1993.1 8.4799 ― ― ― ― 1993.2 9.6427 9.5369 9.3770 7.9235 8.393415 1993.3 11.9675 5.3096 5.4909 10.6112 10.96085 1993.4 12.1284 9.8782 10.1455 12.4486 12.80808 1994.1 12.1 11.5189 11.8569 12.3084 12.65843 1994.2 12.166 12.4320 12.7676 12.0810 12.65469 1994.3 12.0286 10.1312 10.5854 12.7917 13.27563 1994.4 12.1621 10.7036 11.1083 12.4855 13.16868 1995.1 12.3822 13.3130 13.8381 12.1041 12.74094 1995.2 12.491 11.9920 12.6182 12.7405 13.12329 1995.3 12.7998 13.1150 13.5743 12.4614 12.8276 1995.4 12.7119 13.0015 13.3848 12.7811 12.98373 1996.1 12.5406 13.4919 13.7011 12.3989 12.56396 1996.2 11.9618 13.2832 13.3587 12.1322 12.31719 1996.3 11.7756 13.0683 13.0747 11.4179 11.64349 1996.4 11.4327 12.1616 12.1635 11.4142 11.59168 1997.1 11.4552 11.7151 11.6769 11.0704 11.23374 1997.2 11.1417 11.9930 11.9280 10.9939 11.09431 1997.3 10.8967 12.1717 12.0484 10.4983 10.5387 1997.4 9.6037 11.3341 11.1188 10.3449 10.41167 1998.1 8.2176 9.7523 9.5009 9.1224 9.155384 1998.2 6.6451 8.4417 8.1345 7.7022 7.734185 1998.3 5.116 7.0846 6.7417 6.0733 6.062043 1998.4 4.6333 5.5405 5.1283 4.5302 4.525786 1999.1 4.3861 4.6834 4.2289 4.1329 4.169443 1999.2 4.2397 4.1478 3.7079 3.9762 3.981044 1999.3 2.8914 4.1345 3.6856 3.7852 3.752975 1999.4 2.7084 2.9378 2.4220 2.3917 2.45261 2000.1 2.5075 2.1789 1.7038 2.3978 2.442381 2000.2 2.3823 2.1017 1.6352 2.1838 2.277014 2000.3 2.3553 2.3666 1.9551 1.9968 2.054669 2000.4 2.4083 2.5173 2.1062 1.9248 1.993765 2001.1 2.607 2.0168 1.6024 2.1268 2.232762 2001.2 2.4975 2.2246 1.8519 2.3446 2.409254 2001.3 2.4379 2.4835 2.0924 2.1362 2.269174 2001.4 2.337 2.5512 2.2176 2.0776 2.123714 2002.1 2.2916 1.8483 1.4726 2.0993 2.110327 2002.2 2.1093 1.6393 1.2114 2.0559 2.061484
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2002.3 2.1093 2002.4 2.1093 1.9575 2.2365 1.5009 1.7534 1.7226 1.6336 1.723125 1.683437
时间 实际GDP GDP缺口 CPI 通胀率 实际汇率ER 长期目标通胀率 RMB/USD 5.7708 5.7366 5.7892 5.8103 8.7236 8.6982 8.6086 8.5298 8.4548 8.3666 8.3278 8.3346 8.3406 8.3473 8.3376 8.3294 8.3248 8.3237 8.3173 8.3114 8.3081 8.3081 8.3085 8.2779 8.2787 8.2786 8.2774 8.2784 8.2786 8.2782 8.2792 8.2777 8.2774 8.277 8.2769 8.2766 CPI* 12.4875 10.7872 11.3318 11.1108 15.6195 13.9757 18.0083 16.9169 11.8700 11.4711 8.1607 7.3529 7.7320 8.4674 7.5131 7.2029 5.9627 4.7779 5.2818 4.6121 4.5706 3.8075 3.9279 4.5900 4.0776 3.4866 4.9344 4.6830 5.4221 4.8771 5.0436 5.6134 4.9899 6.0260 4.7000 4.1673
（季度） 单位：亿元 GDPQK 1993.1 7538.5100 12.9821 11.1000 1993.2 5194.7900 -54.8059 13.9000 1993.3 7334.7000 -29.7265 16.1000 1993.4 14566.4000 -9.8362 17.1333 1994.1 8620.0000 2.8747 22.2333 1994.2 7979.0000 -29.7296 21.8667 1994.3 9476.0000 -20.4721 25.7000 1994.4 20547.3000 14.2014 26.9000 1995.1 9411.0000 -7.3695 22.6000 1995.2 13454.0000 1995.3 13630.0000 7.3832 19.7333 1.8229 14.8000 1995.4 21765.5000 10.5714 11.1333 1996.1 13156.0000 10.1537 9.3667 1996.2 16600.0000 15.2543 9.0667 1996.3 15919.0000 1996.4 22125.0000 1997.1 14686.0000 1997.3 17972.0000 1997.4 23620.0000 1998.1 15899.4000 1998.2 18831.6000 1998.3 19704.0000 1998.4 25118.0000 5.0252 7.9333 3.6264 6.9667 7.3832 5.1667 6.1867 2.1333 2.2605 1.0000 3.2188 0.3000 5.8504 -0.8700 5.5038 -1.4330 1.0845 -1.1000 1997.2 18494.0000 14.4453 2.9333 1999.1 16784.0000 -2.1618 -1.4000 1999.2 19405.0000 -0.5729 -2.1667 1999.3 20613.6000 1.0228 -1.1667 1999.4 25251.8000 -5.2092 -0.8333 2000.1 18172.7000 -3.9548 0.1000 2000.2 21318.7000 2000.3 22632.5000 0.2216 0.1000 2.1150 0.2667 2000.4 27279.6000 -3.8738 0.9333 2001.1 19894.9000 -3.7775 0.7000 2001.2 23047.1000 2001.3 24284.9000 0.0893 1.6000 1.5397 0.8000 2001.4 28706.4000 -4.7807 -0.2000
18
2002.1 21020.2000 -6.4283 -0.8667 2002.2 24515.6000 -1.0789 -1.3333 2002.3 26146.5000 1.8436 -0.8667 2002.4 30715.6000 -3.6804 -0.7667 8.277 8.277 8.2765 8.2774 4.0845 4.0075 4.7467 4.5738
附图1 中国利率市场化下的利率规则模型的正态性检验图
121086420-0.050.000.05Series: ResidualsSample 1993:1 2002:4Observations 40Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-BeraProbability 0.001421 0.008082 0.088531-0.073357 0.030619 0.082278 4.400310 3.313242 0.190783
附图2 中国利率市场化下的利率规则模型的稳定性检验与预测结果图
(1)CUSUM检验（图形在虚线内说明稳定）
20
100-10-20949596979899000102CUSUM5% Significance
(2) CUSUM平方检验（图形在虚线内说明稳定）
1.61.20.80.40.0-0.4949596979899000102CUSUM of Squares5% Significance
(3)一步预测：
19
0.100.050.00-0.050.000.050.100.15949596979899000102-0.10One-Step ProbabilityRecursive Residuals
(4)N步预测
（左下的刻度表示显著性水平，图形下部如果出现圆点，表明以左边对应的显著性水
平拒绝平稳性假定）
0.100.050.00-0.050.000.050.100.15949596979899000102-0.10N-Step ProbabilityRecursive Residuals
(5)系数递归估计稳定性检验结果图
1.31.21.11.00.99596979899000102Recursive C(1) Estimates?2 S.E.0.0100.0050.000-0.005-0.010-0.015-0.0209596979899000102Recursive C(2) Estimates?2 S.E.0.00050.0000-0.0005-0.0010-0.0015-0.0020-0.00259596979899000102Recursive C(3) Estimates?2 S.E.
(6) 预测值及各项评价指标：
20