ESSENCE OF PMBOK & PMP EXAM
TIME时间
Project Time Management项目时间管理 - processes required to ensure timely completion of the project确保项目按时完成
Activity Definition活动定义 – defines activities that must take place to produce project deliverables定义完成项目可交付产品必须进行的具体活动 Activity活动 – consumes time (eg testing)消耗时间(如:进行测试)
Events事件 – specified accomplishment / does not consume time (eg tested)指定要完成的任务/不消耗时间(如:测试工作)
PERT计划评审技术 Weighted Average = (O + 4M + P)/6 standard deviation = (P - O)/6 variance = standard deviation2 (To add standard
deviations: convert to variance then add; take the square root of the sum). Best method when you have no historical data for a similar task. Results is the 50% point (mean). 均值= (O + 4M + P)/6 ,标准差= (P - O)/6,方差=标准差2(累加标准差:转换成活动方差再累加;取和的平方根)类似任务中没有原始数据时的最好估算方法。结果是中值(平均数) Monte Carlo Analysis蒙特卡洛分析 - computer simulation of project outcomes using PERT estimates; result represented in S curve. Provides the
ability to compute the probability of completing a project on a specific day. Can also be used to assess feasibility of schedule under adverse
conditions (eg when a schedule constraint is identified)使用PERT估算的计算机模拟项目输出方式;结果描述成S曲线。提供在某一天项目能够完成的概率。同样可以被用于估计相反概率的可能性(当时间进度一定时) Heuristics启发式 - rules of thumb拇指原则
Critical Path关键路径 – longest path (almost always have no float)最长路经(通常没有时差时间) Variance偏差 - Plan minus Actual计划与实际的差距
Float / Slack时差/松弛时间 – Time an activity may be delayed from its early start without delaying the project finish date. Difference between the
required end date and the expected project completion date. A negative slack on the critical path means that the project is behind schedule.在不延误项目完成日期的情况下,活动自其最早开始的日期起可以推迟的时间量。项目要求结束时间和项目预期结束时间之间有差别。在关键路径上存在一个负时差说明项目落后于进度计划。 Free Float自由浮动时间 – Amount of time a task can be delayed without delaying the early start of its successor自由浮动时间是在不延误任何紧后活动
的最早开始时间的情况下,活动可以推迟的时间量。 Total Float 总时差– amount of time that an activity may be delayed from early start without delaying the project finish date在不延误项目完成日期的情况
下,活动自其最早开始的日期起可以推迟的总时间量 Lag滞后 – waiting time between two tasks (negative lead)两个任务之间的等待时间(负超前)
Schedule Baseline 进度基线- the original, approved project schedule; should never be changed without proper review and approval. Any approved
change should be documented in writing. Should be created at the beginning of the project and used during the project to gauge (measure) overall project performance, not just schedule. The project Performance Measurement Baseline should generally change only in response to a scope or deliverable change.原始的,被核准的项目进程;未经恰当的评估和正式批准永远不能改变。被核准的变化必须以文档纪录。在项目启动时制定,贯穿于整个项目进程以评估项目执行,而不仅仅是在计划阶段完成。项目绩效测量基线仅在范围变更时候或可交付成果发生变化时变更。 Corrective action纠正措施 - in project time management primarily concerns expediting to ensure that activities remain on schedule. Is anything done to bring expected future schedule performance in line with the project plan.项目时间管理主要关注确保进度表中的活动按时完成。使预期的未来项目绩效与计划保持一致所做的任何事情。 Revisions修订 are changes to the scheduled start and finish dates in the approved project schedule; generally revised only in response to scope
changes. Rebaselining may be needed to provide realistic data to measure performance.对已批准的项目进度计划的开始和结束时间的修改;只反映相应的项目范围变化时才进行修订。重新确定基准计划能提供测量进度绩效的真实数据。 Scheduling and allocating resources to multiple projects may affect schedule slippage and in-process inventory.多项目管理的进度计划和资源分配可能
会影响进度滑动和存货清单。 The most important element necessary for project control is clear requirements.项目控制中最重要的因素就是清晰的需求。
Duration Compression Methods 历时压缩方法– occurs after activity duration estimating and before finalizing the schedule. Include crashing, fast
track, 在活动历时评估之后,进度最终敲定之前发生。包括赶工和快速跟进。 Crashing赶工 – when you are worried about time, not so much about costs.通过加大成本缩短历时。
Fast Track 快速跟进– resources in parallel, involve increase rework. Fast track tasks should on the critical path (float = 0) in order to save time.串行改
并行,会带来返工。快速跟进一般在关键路径上进行以节省时间。 Resource Leveling 资源平衡– often results in a project duration that is longer than the preliminary schedule. Resource reallocation from non-critical
to critical path activities is a common way to bring the schedule back, or as close as possible, to the originally intended overall duration. 经常导致活动历时超过最初的进度计划。资源分配从非关键路径到关键路径的活动是导致进度滞后于最初拟定的完成时间的一般原因或最接近的原因, Finish to Finish结束结束关系 - activities must finish on a specific sequence 活动必须按照一定的次序结束
“Start no earlier than” & “Finish no later than” 不早于和不晚于– Respectively #1 and #2 most popular date constraint in project management
software.在项目管理软件中排名第一和第二的常见日期约束。 Root Cause Analysis 根源分析– used to identify the cause of the variation用于定义偏差的产生原因
Variance analysis偏差分析 – key element to time control. Float variance is an essential planning component for evaluating project time performance.
时间控制的关键部分。时差偏差是评估项目绩效的核心计划编制成分。 Revision修订 – category of schedule update that result in change to the project’s scheduled start or finish dates. New target schedule should be the
usual mode of schedule revision.导致项目拟定的开始或结束时间的变化的项目进度表更新。新的目标进度计划应该是项目进度修改的标准模式。
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ESSENCE OF PMBOK & PMP EXAM
Schedule Management Plan 进度管理计划– defines how schedule changes will be managed; may be formal or informal.定义进度变更如何管理,可能
是正式的或非正式的 Schedule Change Control System 进度变化控制系统– defines procedures for changing the project schedule and includes the documentation, tracking
systems, and approval levels required for authorizing schedule changes.定义项目进度的变更程序包括文档工作,跟踪系统和对变更的审批批准层次
Project Time Management项目时间管理 Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM):PERT and CPM focuses on float duration, to determine which activities have the least scheduling 箭线图 flexibility. PERT计划评审技术 Program Evaluation and Review Technique程序评估和回顾技术 Emphasis on meeting schedules with flexibility on cost重点在于成本的计划与弹性相协调 Three time estimates per activity: pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic每项活动评估三次:悲观的,一般的,乐观的 The probability of completing a project at or later than its expected time is 50%按预计或晚于预计时间完成项目的概率为50% Event oriented; uses dummy; activity on arrow (AOA)事件为导向的;使用标志符;活动箭头 Finish-to-Start logical relationship结束即开始的逻辑关系 Time estimates appear on arrow时间评估出现在箭头上 Critical Path Method关键路径方法 Emphasis on controlling cost and leaving the schedule flexible重点在控制成本上,让计划保持灵活性 (CPM) One time estimate per activity每项活动评估一次 Activity oriented; uses dummy; activity on arrow活动为导向;使用标志符;活动箭头 Time estimates appear on arrow时间评估出现在箭头上 Precedence Diagram Method优先Represents improvement to PERT and CPM by adding lag relationships to activities 图方法 (PDM) [Start to Start; Start to Finish; Finish to Start; Finish to Finish]开始对开始;开始对结束;结束对开始;结束对结束 Work is done during activity. Arrow indicates dependancy在活动中完成工作。箭头指示依赖性 Activity on node; no dummy节点上的活动;没有标志符 GERT A network diagram drawing method that allows loops between tasks. It is a method of sequencing (e.g. a project requires redesign after completion of testing) 允许任务之间发生循环的网络图表制图方法。有先后次序的方法(例如:测试完成之后,项目需要重新设计) Dependencies依赖关系 Mandatory or Hard强制 Often involve physical or technological limitations (based on the nature of work being done)常常包括了物理及技术上的局限性(基于被完成任务的属性) Discretionary自由 Soft: desirable and customary (based on experience)软件:需要的,习惯性的(在经验基础之上) Preferential: preferred or mandated by a customer (also, need of the project sponsor)优先: External外部 Input needed from another project or source从其他项目或资源输入所需 Resource Planning Tools 资源分配工具 Responsibility Matrix责任矩阵 Identify who does what at what time/phase of the project定义谁在项目的什么时间/阶段做什么 Resource Spreadsheet资源表 Quantifies how much work is needed from each resource during each time period量化每段时间从各个资源所需的任务量 Resource Gantt Chart资源甘特图 Identify the periods of time (e.g. calendar date) when a particular resource is working on a particular task在一个特定的资源用于一个特定任务时,定义时间段(如:日历) Resource Histogram资源柱状图 Vertical bar chart showing the total number of resources needed during each time period显示在每一个时(Resource Loading Chart)(资源间段所需资源总量的垂直条状图 复合图) Scheduling Tools进度计划编制工具 Networks (PERT, CPM, PDM)网络 Barchart (Gantt)甘特图 Milestone Chart里程碑图
Interdependencies; how related相互依赖;相互关系的 Effective progress reporting tool; no logical relationships shown between activities有效的发展报告工具;在活动中不现实逻辑关系 Significant events; good for communicating status (used to track success)重要事件;对沟通情况有利(用于跟踪成功事件) COST
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ESSENCE OF PMBOK & PMP EXAM
Project Cost Management Processes required to ensure that the project is completed within the approved budget.保证在批准的预算内完项目成本管理 成项目的过程 Benefit Cost Ratio Expected Revenues / Expected Costs. Measure benefits (payback) to costs; not just profits. The higher the 收益成本比率 better (if rating over 1, the benefits are greater than the costs) 期望收入/期望成本。测量相对于成本的收益(回报),不仅仅是利润。该比率越高越好(如果比率超过1,收益大于成本) Internal Rate of Return Interest Rate which makes the PV of costs equal to PV of benefits 内部收益率 使得成本的计划值等于收益的计划值的利率 Payback Period Number of time periods up to the point where cumulative revenues exceeds cumulative costs. Weakness in 回收期 this approach is the lack of emphasis on the magnitude of the profitability. Does not account for time value of money nor consider value benefits after payback. 累计收入超过累计成本时的周期数。这种方法的弱点是缺乏对收益数量的强调。既没有计算金钱的时间价值,也没有考虑回报后的收益价值。 Opportunity Cost Cost of choosing one alternative and therefore giving up the potential benefits of another alternative: it is the 机会成本 value of the project not selected (lost opportunity). 选择了可选方案的一种因此放弃了另一个可选方案的潜在收益的成本:它是没有被选择的项目的价值(失去机会)。 Sunk Cost Expended costs which should be ignored when making decisions about whether to continue investing in a 沉淀成本 project 已经花费的成本,并且该成本在做出是否继续投资一个项目的决策时不再考虑。 Law of Diminishing Returns The point beyond which the marginal addition of resources does not provide a proportional amount of utility. 收益递减率 资源边际增加不能提供成比率的效用数量。 Straight Line Depreciation Same amount each time period (e.g. 10 – 10 – 10) 直线折旧法 每一时间段折旧相同数量(例如:10 – 10 – 10) Contingency Reserve Separate quantity of time/money for known unknowns. Designed to cover specific risk events previously 应急储备 identified and measured in the Risk Management Process. 为已知的未知单独准备时间/金钱的数量。目的是为了应对之前在风险管理过程中已经确定和测量的特殊的风险事件。 Management Reserve Separate quantity of time/money for unknown unknowns 管理储备 为应对未知的未知风险而准备的单独的时间/金钱的数量。 Working Capital Current Assets - Current Liabilities 运营资本 当前的资产-当前的债务 Value Analysis Cost reduction tool that considers whether function is really necessary and whether it can be provided at a 价值分析 lower cost without degrading performance or quality. Finding the least expensive way to do the scope of work. 成本降低工具,它考虑了功能是否真正需要以及它是否能在不降低性能或质量的前提下适用较低的成本来实现。寻找到较少的花费来实现工作的范围。 Value Estimating Part of Cost Control 价值估算 成本控制的一部分 Value Engineering Tool Tool for analyzing a design, determining its function, and assessing how to provide those functions cost 价值工程工具 effectively. 分析设计,确定它的功能并评估如何使用有效的成本提供这些功能的工具。 50-50 Rule At beginning, charge 50% of its BCWS to the account. Charge remaining at completion. 50-50规则 在开始时,计计划值的50%,结束时计剩下部分。 Analogous Estimating Top down; based on similar projects. Represents a form of expert judgment. Gives project team an 类比估算 understanding of management’s expectations (part of cost budgeting and cost estimating) 从上自下的估算,基于简单的项目。代表专家判断的一种形式。给管理团队一个管理预期的理解(成本预算和成本估算的一部分)。 Bottom-up Estimating Detailed cost estimates of work packages are aggregated. Would provide best overall quality of the estimate. 自下而上的估算 工作包详细成本估算的总合。将提供最好的全局的估算质量。 Parametric Estimating Relies on knowledge of mathematical relationships; measured in $/unit (scalable, quantifiable). It does not 参数估算 make use of team estimate. (part of cost budgeting and cost estimating). Using a mathematical model to predict the duration of a task (e.g. taking the average duration of all past tasks) 依赖于数学关系的知识,测量每单位所花的金钱数$/单位(可测量的,可计量的)。它不能使用团队估算(是成本估算和成本预算的一部分)。使用数学模型预测任务的历时(例如:所有以前任务的平均历时)。 Regression Analysis Statistical technique graphically represented on scatter diagram 回归分析 在分散图表中的图形描绘的统计学工具 Learning Curve Mathematically models the intuitive notion that the more times we do something, the faster we will be able to 18
ESSENCE OF PMBOK & PMP EXAM
学习曲线 perform 数学模型,直觉概念是我们作某事的时间越长,我们将能够执行的更快。 Variable Costs Costs rise directly with the size and scope of the project 可变成本 随着项目规模和范围的增加,成本直接上升 Fixed Costs Costs do not change; non-recurring (e.g. project setup costs) 固定成本 成本不会变化,不再发生(如:项目设置成本) Direct Costs Incurred directly by a specific project. The PMI want the team to participate in the cost estimates to get their 直接成本 buy-in. 由一个特定项目引起的成本。PMI想让团队参与成本估算并达成共识。 Indirect Costs Part of the overall organization's cost of doing business and are shared by all projects. Usually computed as a 间接成本 percentage of the direct costs. 整个组织运营成本的一部分,是共享与所有项目的。通常用直接成本的百分比计算。 Cost accounts Represent the basic level at which project performance is measured and reported. The purpose of cost 控制帐户 accounts is to monitor and report on project performance. 代表着测量和报告项目绩效的基本层次。控制帐户的目的是监控和报告项目绩效。 Cost Change Control Includes the documentation, tracking systems, and approval levels needed to authorize a change. Systems 包括文档工作,跟踪系统,和批准变更必须的批准层次。 成本变更控制系统 Budget updates Should be the next steps after an approved cost baseline has changed because of a major change on a 预算更新 project. 将是在已被批准的成本基线由于项目的重大变更而发生变更的下一步骤。 Operating profit Amount of money earned: Revenue – (direct + indirect costs) 运营利润 赚得的钱数:收入-(直接成本+间接成本) Discounted cash-flow Present value method determines the net present value of all cash flow by discounting it by the required rate approach of return. 现金流量折现法 现值法通过使用必须的回报率折现来计算所有现金流量的净现值 Parametric modeling Involves using project characteristics (parameters) in a mathematical model to predict project costs. 参数模型 包括在数学模型中使用项目特征(参数)来预测项目成本。 Life-Cycle Cost Provide a picture of the total cost for the product (project, operations and maintenance). 生命周期成本 描绘项目全部成本(项目,运营和维护) Project Closeout (output to cost control) Process and procedures developed for the closing or canceling of projects 项目收尾 (成本控制的输出)确定结束或撤销项目的过程和程序。 Formulas Expected Value Probability * Impact 预期价值 概率*影响 Present Value FV / (1 + r)t 现值 Cost Variance EV – AC [BCWP – ACWP] Variance = planned – actual 成本偏差 EV – AC [BCWP – ACWP] 偏差=计划-实际 Schedule Variance EV – PV [BCWP – BCWS] (if <0; work completed is less than what was planned) 进度偏差 EV – PV [BCWP – BCWS](如果小于0,完成的比计划的少) Cost Performance Index EV/AC [BCWP / ACWP] I am getting ____ out of each dollar. (>1 good; <1 bad) 成本绩效指数 Schedule Performance Index EV/PV [BCWP / BCWS] I am progressing at ____% of the rate originally planned 进度绩效指数 Estimate at Completion (EAC) BAC / CPI 完工估算 AC+ETC (when original estimates are considered flawed) (当原始估算被认为是错误的) AC+BAC-EV (when everything is OK and variance will not occur in the future)(当一切都好并且偏差将不会在将来发生) AC+((BAC-EV)/CPI) (when everything is OK and variance will occur in the future)(当一切都好且偏差将会在以后发生) Estimate to Completion (ETC) EAC - AC or (BAC - EV) / CPI 19
ESSENCE OF PMBOK & PMP EXAM Formulas 完工估算 Variance at Completion (VAR) BAC – EAC 完工时的偏差 % Spent AC/BAC %花费 Cost Variance in % CV/EV 成本偏差的% Schedule Variance in % SV/PV 进度偏差的% BCWS (PV) How much should be done? This is the performance measurement baseline. 计划值 多少需要做的工作?这是绩效测量基线 BCWP (EV) How much work is done? (Progress) Budgeted cost of work performed. Value of the work completed in 挣值 terms of what you budgeted (your baseline) 多少工作应经完成?(发展)完成工作预算成本。工作完成的价值依据你的预算(你的基线)确定。 ACWP (AC) How much did the “is done” work cost? 实际成本 完成工作的成本是多少? BAC Budget at Completion – How much is budgeted for the total job? BAC would change every time there is a 完工时的预算 funded scope change approved for activity to be performed in the future. 完成时的预算——全部工作的预算是多少?每当固定范围变更时,完工预算将为以后活动的执行改变。 EAC Based on project performance and risk quantification 完工时的估算 基于项目绩效和风险量化 ETC Estimate to Completion 完工时的估算 到完成时的估算 CPI Cumulative CPI does not change by more than 10% once a project is approximately 20% complete. The 成本绩效指数 CPI provides a quick statistical forecast of final project costs. 一但项目完成了大约20%时,累积的CPI不能超过10%。CPI提供了一个最终项目成本的快速的统计预测。 EV=PV [BCWP=BCWS] EV equals PV when the project is completed. EV等于PV时项目完成。 AD Work Quantity(scope of the activity) / Production rate 工作数量(活动的范围)/生产率 Slope (crash cost - normal cost) / (crash time - normal time) ; if <0, as the time required for a project/task decrease, the cost increase (压缩成本-正常成本)/(压缩时间-正常时间);如果小于0。随着项目/任务计划时间的减少,成本上升。
Documentation ?
Cost Management Plan – (from Cost Estimating) The action taken by the project manager for all variances are described in the Cost Management Plan.成本管理计划-(来自成本估算)在成本管理计划中描述了所有项目经理为偏差所采取的行动。
RISK风险
Project Risk Management 项目风险管理– processes concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to uncertainty. The most likely cause of
poor risk management is lack of prioritized list of risks对风险进行识别、分析、应对的系统化过程。差的风险管理源于没有对风险进行分类排序 Types of Risk风险类型 Business商业风险 Pure / Insurable纯风险/可保险 Normal risks that offer gain and loss正常的风险可能会带来盈利或损失 Only loss: property damage, indirect consequential loss, legal liability, personnel. For risk we can outsource, we have contract. For pure risks, we obtain insurance.只带来损失:财产损害、间接损失、法律责任、人员损失。可通过购买保险、签订合同等手段将风险转移出去。 Risk Factors风险因素 Risk event风险事件 Risk probability风险概率 Amount at Stake得失量 Statistical Independence统计独立 来源,事件,征兆 Occurrence of one event is not related to occurrence of the other 一件事情的发生与其他事情的发生无关(期望值分析和决策数分析的必要条件) Purpose is to test the value of data (input to Qualitative Analysis)数值测量(质量分析的输入) 20