开题报告—
（2） 系统建模中不确定性量化方法，建立混合可靠性模型； （3） 考虑各不确定性的自适应重要抽样方法； （4） 离散与连续分层变步长机制； （5） 长短周期交互的变步长仿真方法。
三 预期达到的目标和研究成果
预期目标：
1、实现机-电-液和机-电-热多学科领域协同仿真，并给出系统综合评价指标； 2、进行机电耦合系统性能可靠性仿真模型中的各种不确定分析，并研究了各种不确定性的量化方法；
3、研究考虑综合不确定性的自适应重要抽样方法；
4、给出离散状态与连续过程层交互仿真机制，并研究高效变步长仿真算法； 5、确定长短周期交互的变步长仿真算法，实现长周期动态可靠性仿真评估。 预期成果：
1、完成―基于故障机理的机电系统多尺度可靠性仿真方法研究‖博士论文； 2、进行应用案例验证（如电液伺服阀、MEMS DC转换开关）；
3、按关键问题点（多专业联合仿真、不确定性分析与量化、考虑综合不确定性的自适应重要抽样算法研究、离散与连续混合仿真机制与自适应变步长算法研究、基于MCMC自适应重要抽样的长短周期交互仿真算法研究）撰写与发表相关小论文。
四 论文工作计划
论文工作计划如表3所示。
表3论文工作计划
起止日期 工作内容 1) 根据课题研究背景，提炼课题研究中拟解决的技术难题；2）调研高效仿真研究现成果 备注 完成开题报告和文献综述 2013.8~2014.02 状，寻找1)中问题解决途径；3）确定论文的主要研究内容、关键问题及技术路线，完成开题报告。 23
开题报告—
起止日期 工作内容 1）针对一般机电产品如射流管伺服阀，研究机、电、液、控多专业领域模型联合成果 备注 2014.03~2014.05 仿真及数据流交互方法； 2）针对MEMS产品如DC直流开关，进行机、电、热、控多专业领域模型联合仿真研究。 1）针对机电耦合系统进行故障或参数不EI论文一篇 2014.06~2014.08 确定性分析； 2）将多种不确定性进行分类与不确定性量化方法研究。 1）考虑综合不确定性的高效仿真算法研 2014.09~2014.10 究； 2）案例验证。 1) 研究离散与连续混合仿真机制； 2014.11~2014.12 2) 离散与连续层自适应变步长优化算法研究； 3) 案例验证。 1) 长短周期交互的自适应变步长算法研2015.01~2015.02 究，进行动态可靠性分析； 2) 案例验证。 1）完善补充研究内容； 2）撰写博士论文，答辩。 EI论文一篇 EI论文一篇、授权专 利一个 SCI论文一篇 完成博士论文和论文答辩 2015.03~2015.05 主要参考文献
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