Abstract
Abstract
July21,2005,People’SBankofChinaannouncedtoreforlntheI蝴Bexchangerateformationmechanismandimplementedamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystem,whichwasbasedonmarketsupplyanddemandwithreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.Atthesametime,appreciationoftheRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarby2%(thatis,oneU.S.dollarswouldbeagainst8.11Yuanconvertibly).Inthefollowingneadyfouryears,the砌ⅥBappreciationgraduallyembarkedontheroad.Tillt01lthAug2009.accordingtothelatestdatafromWVCV矿.chinamoney.tom.cnshowstheRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarfor6.8352.thecumulativeappreciationrangehasreached15.73%.
Theexporttradeofagriculturalproductsis
ofChina.Itis
favorable
areaaanimportantcomponentalsooneofexportstructureresourcestraditionalexportindustryforeignandoftheimportantoftradebalanceandexchangeinChina.Foodmainlyincludesmajoragriculturalmaize,sweetpotato,soybean,rice,grainandSOon.reserve.ShandongProvinceistheFoodstuffoutputistopinChina.Economiccropsmainlyincludecotton,peanuts,coRonandtheiroutputalsoistopinChinaformanyyears.nepeanutoutputaccountsforabout40%.iS
area.themostinChina.ShandongProvinceisthefruit,vegetables,seafoodmainlyproduction
Tilltotheendof2008,agriculturalexportisnearly9.976billionU.S.dollars.increasedby7.9oA,rankfirstinexport.Exportsofa鲥culturalproductsinShandongProvincehas9yearscalerankedmostinChina,whichpulledShandong’SGDPtogrowby2%points.Thesehavedrivenmorethan1600millionpeopleinemployment,increasedincomeoffarmersandmakethecontributionratereach25%whicheffectivelypromoteitsdevelopmentofeconomicandsocial.Italsospeedsuptheadjustmentofagriculturalstructure,andpromotesa鲥cultural
Province.production,standardization,andpromotes
Forall,itstartstoplayamodernizationofagricultureinShandongcrucialrole.Accordingtothetheorybetweentheexchangerate
aandtradeofexport,theexportofShandongwillsuffer
Inthispaper,throughtheoreticallotforilltheappreciation.analysis,analysis,correlationanalysisandempirical
Shandongfromqualitativeandquantitativepointofview,adetailedanalysisbetweentheREERofRMBand
thereiSaexportsofagriculturalproductstradeinstrongpositivecorrelationProvince.TheresultsshowthatbetweentheREERofRMBandexportvolumeofagriculturalproductsinShandong,thatistosay,intheshortterm,withtheappreciationofRMB,the
inexportwillincrease.Andinthelongterm.theREERofRMBwouldrisethetradenegativeeffectsforlagandeventuallyitwillmakebalanceofpaymentsfora鲥culturalShandongshowa”anti-Jcurve."Therefore,fortheappreciationofRMB.Shandongprovinceshouldbeactiveinallaspectsofeffortstoimprovethecompetitivenessoftheagriculturalproducts,SOthattheexportofagriculturalproductsinShandongProvincewillmaintainsustainedandsteadydevelopmentinthefuture.
Keywords:RealEffectiveExchangeRateofRMB;exportofagriculture;J-Curveeffect