人民币升值对山东农产品出口的影响分析(3)

2021-02-21 13:36

Abstract

Abstract

July21,2005,People’SBankofChinaannouncedtoreforlntheI蝴Bexchangerateformationmechanismandimplementedamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystem,whichwasbasedonmarketsupplyanddemandwithreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.Atthesametime,appreciationoftheRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarby2%(thatis,oneU.S.dollarswouldbeagainst8.11Yuanconvertibly).Inthefollowingneadyfouryears,the砌ⅥBappreciationgraduallyembarkedontheroad.Tillt01lthAug2009.accordingtothelatestdatafromWVCV矿.chinamoney.tom.cnshowstheRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarfor6.8352.thecumulativeappreciationrangehasreached15.73%.

Theexporttradeofagriculturalproductsis

ofChina.Itis

favorable

areaaanimportantcomponentalsooneofexportstructureresourcestraditionalexportindustryforeignandoftheimportantoftradebalanceandexchangeinChina.Foodmainlyincludesmajoragriculturalmaize,sweetpotato,soybean,rice,grainandSOon.reserve.ShandongProvinceistheFoodstuffoutputistopinChina.Economiccropsmainlyincludecotton,peanuts,coRonandtheiroutputalsoistopinChinaformanyyears.nepeanutoutputaccountsforabout40%.iS

area.themostinChina.ShandongProvinceisthefruit,vegetables,seafoodmainlyproduction

Tilltotheendof2008,agriculturalexportisnearly9.976billionU.S.dollars.increasedby7.9oA,rankfirstinexport.Exportsofa鲥culturalproductsinShandongProvincehas9yearscalerankedmostinChina,whichpulledShandong’SGDPtogrowby2%points.Thesehavedrivenmorethan1600millionpeopleinemployment,increasedincomeoffarmersandmakethecontributionratereach25%whicheffectivelypromoteitsdevelopmentofeconomicandsocial.Italsospeedsuptheadjustmentofagriculturalstructure,andpromotesa鲥cultural

Province.production,standardization,andpromotes

Forall,itstartstoplayamodernizationofagricultureinShandongcrucialrole.Accordingtothetheorybetweentheexchangerate

aandtradeofexport,theexportofShandongwillsuffer

Inthispaper,throughtheoreticallotforilltheappreciation.analysis,analysis,correlationanalysisandempirical

Shandongfromqualitativeandquantitativepointofview,adetailedanalysisbetweentheREERofRMBand

thereiSaexportsofagriculturalproductstradeinstrongpositivecorrelationProvince.TheresultsshowthatbetweentheREERofRMBandexportvolumeofagriculturalproductsinShandong,thatistosay,intheshortterm,withtheappreciationofRMB,the

inexportwillincrease.Andinthelongterm.theREERofRMBwouldrisethetradenegativeeffectsforlagandeventuallyitwillmakebalanceofpaymentsfora鲥culturalShandongshowa”anti-Jcurve."Therefore,fortheappreciationofRMB.Shandongprovinceshouldbeactiveinallaspectsofeffortstoimprovethecompetitivenessoftheagriculturalproducts,SOthattheexportofagriculturalproductsinShandongProvincewillmaintainsustainedandsteadydevelopmentinthefuture.

Keywords:RealEffectiveExchangeRateofRMB;exportofagriculture;J-Curveeffect


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