的。自从1997年京都协议书发布以来，全球碳排放量已经增加了25%，大部分是发展中国家带来的。京都协议书的策略并没能控制那些签署国碳的排放，他们现在的碳排放量大约占全球中排放量的58%，单单中国就占23%。第二大排放国（20%）美国还在毫无顾忌的排放，它根本不认可这个协议。
Developed countries that did ratify Kyoto feel cheated. Japan and Russia have rejected a second round of emission-cutting under its aegis, after their current commitments expire at the end of 2012. Canada, which will hugely overshoot its Kyoto target, is reported to be considering quitting the treaty altogether. “Kyoto is the past,” said its environment minister, Peter Kent, before setting out for Durban.
那些签署并执行京都协议书的发达国家感觉自己受骗了。日本和俄国拒绝了签署第二轮减排协议，他们现在的协议将维持到2012年末。加拿大更是赤裸裸地掩盖他们签署的京都协议书中减排的目标，而且有报道称其有意组团反悔东京协议书，他们的环境部长皮特肯特在出发去德班前还说道：“京都协议书已经过时了”。
This leaves the European Union as the only large industrial power willing to undertake a second five-year “commitment period”. But the EU’s emissions account for only 14% of the total, and its likely second commitment—a 20% cut by 2020—would be no more than it is already
bound to under European law. It might nonetheless appeal to developing countries, who appear less bothered about global warming than about maintaining the principle that they should be exempt from rules to curb it. A delegate from a powerful developing country says that the politics of the negotiations are, unfortunately, “much more important” than climate change.
这使得欧盟成为唯一的一个希望执行第二个五年承诺的大工业力量。但是欧盟的排放量占到总量的14%，他可能第二阶段到2020的减排目标是减少20%，这不会比按照欧盟已经实行的法律要多。但是欧盟可能向发展中国家提出上述，因为发展中国家宁愿维护他们有规则豁免权的准则而不用担心全球变暖的影响。一个来自强大的发展中国家的代表团说很遗憾谈判上的政治斡旋比气候的变化更加重要。
Recent data meanwhile show how dismally the world is failing to deal with the problem. Rich and poor alike have accepted the somewhat arbitrary principle that warming should not be allowed to exceed two degrees. But the UN’s Environment Programme reckons that even if all countries honour their existing commitments, global emissions in 2020 would exceed the likeliest total consistent with that pledge by the equivalent of up to 11 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. That is more than double the amount emitted by all the world’s cars, buses and trucks in 2005.
同时近期的资料显示世界解决这个问题的结果是怎样的令人心寒。富有的国家和贫穷的国家一样已经接受了一定程度上有点主观的不应该让变暖超过2度的准则。但是欧盟的环境项目计算出即使所有的国家兑现他们现有的承诺，2020年的全球排放二氧化碳问题也将超过11亿吨，那将是2005年全世界的私家车、巴士和卡车排放的两倍还多。
The Europeans, who actually want to do something about the problem, have therefore attached a condition to their possible second commitment. In return for them, in effect, keeping Kyoto alive for another five years, they want all countries to pledge to negotiate a new agreement, to be completed by 2015. This pledge—the third big aspiration in Durban—would imply that developing countries are willing to share the burden for cutting emissions, though their burden would be much less onerous than those imposed on rich states.
欧洲人确实想为解决温室气体排放问题做些什么，因此，他们为自己可能实现的第二阶段的承诺附加了一个条件。作为回报，实际上是为了“京都议定书”在接下来的五年里继续有效，他们希望世界所有国家能保证着手商定出一套在2015年之前可以完成的全新的协议。这一保证，作为德班会议的第三大目标，将意味着发展中国家有意承担温室气体减排的任务，虽然相对于那些发达国家，他们的任务要轻松得多。
China, India and other developing countries have already promised to cut the energy or carbon intensity of their expanding economies. They did so in Copenhagen; and their pledges were included in a provisional pact in Cancún. Yet they have refused to turn this into legally binding commitments; and they are unlikely to do so now. Their main concern is for their economies to grow rapidly, not least to help deal with the fallout of warming.
中国、印度和其他发展中国家已经承诺降减少他们正日益发展的经济中的能量释放并降低碳化物比重。他们在哥本哈根会议上作出这一承诺，该承诺已经纳入了坎昆会议的一个临时条款。但是，他们拒绝对其赋以法律效力，并且，他们不可能现在就执行。他们所关心的主要是经济的快速发展，不会来处理温室沉降物。
Recent work by, among others, Michael Greenstone at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology backs that approach. It shows that hot spells kill few people in air-conditioned America; but in India, where 300m have no access to electricity, the death toll is huge. India’s priority is to provide its people with electricity, and one day air-conditioners. That this will increase its emissions is less a problem for India than for the world. It therefore views any suggestion that it should be bound to curb its emissions as a threat.
一些专家，尤其是马萨诸塞州理工学院的Michael Greenstone的最新研究证实了上述观点。研究表明，在空调普及的美国，一段时间的炎热不会杀死多少人，但在有三亿人口用不上电的印度，死亡数字是巨大的。印度的当前任务是向它的民众提供电，并且在某一天提供空调。这样所增加的气体排放相对于对人类造成的危害而言，对印度的危害要小很多。因此，印度政府把任何要求它控制温室气体排放的意见都视为一种威胁。
2020 vision
Some sort of agreement is still possible. Developing countries, including China and India, have suggested they are willing to negotiate a new pact, to be concluded around 2020. This agreement, if it transpires, would be a broader version of the deal agreed in Cancún, including new emissions targets for rich countries and new efficiency targets for developing ones. And China’s target, in particular, could soon start to matter. Though its emissions will not peak for over a decade, China is much better placed than India to slow their growth. Its emissions per head are already higher than those of some European countries.
达成某种意义上的共识也还是可能的。发展中国家，包括中国和印度，倾向于制定一项到2020年左右到期的新的协议。如果能在该新协议上达成共识，这将是“坎昆共识”的一个更为广泛运用版本。它不仅包括了发达国家的新的排放目标也涵盖了发展中国家的新的更为有效