摘要
论文题目: 房地产投资与区域经济增长
——基于山东省的时间序列数据
专业: 财政学
硕士生: XX 签名： _________________ 指导教师: XXX 签名：__________________
摘要
消费、出口和投资是拉动经济增长的三驾马车，但自2008年金融危机以来，国内内需不振、社会消费日渐萎靡，对于经济的拉动作用不断削弱；而出口受全球宏观经济不景气的影响也难以有大作为。在这种情况下，投资便成为我国在过去几年里推动经济发展的最主要的手段。房地产业不仅能吸纳大量投资，还能有效促进城市化建设，因此，在相当长一段时间内，房地产投资一直作为推动经济增长的主引擎。近些年来，大量社会资本为追求高收益而纷纷涌入房地产市场，使红火的房地产行业在各行业中一枝独秀。但巨量的房地产投资在有效拉动GDP增长、加速城市化进程的同时，又造成房价畸高、地方政府债台高筑、经济结构不合理等诸多问题。可以说，房地产市场影响着整个宏观经济的走向，交织着普通大众的喜怒哀乐。因此，系统地研究房地产投资与经济增长之间关系的研究具有一定的理论和现实意义。
房地产业对于经济社会发展的功过是非一直都是个争议不断的话题，从国家宏观层面来讲，主流观点在近些年里大致经历了从狂热追捧到冷静反思的过程，对于依靠房地产投资推动经济发展的认识也从最初的利大于弊逐渐变为弊大于利。但是并不能一概而论，由于房地产市场的区域性特征及我国区域经济的明显差异，使得房地产与经济增长的相关性以及对社会的影响必然也有所不同。对某一区域来说，如果房地产业仍对经济发展有明显的促进作用，则继续加强对其投资也不无不可；如果房地产投资对经济发展的推动作用是低效的、甚至是有害的，则要加快经济转型，逐步减少对房地产业的投资。因此，对于不同的区域，需要进行针对性的分析研究。山东省是我国经济最发达的省份之一，自2007年以来，其经济总量一直位列全国前三甲。山东省经济总量的快速增长除了受惠于改革开放的政策以及毗邻日韩的区位优势以外，也依赖于多种支柱产业的蓬勃发展，房地产业就是山东省重要的支柱产业之一。
本文首先从宏观上描述山东经济发展的情况以及房地产投资的现状，而后选取1990
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年至2013年山东省房地产投资量和宏观经济数据作为实验样本，再运用协整检验等多种计量方法进行实证分析。结果显示，房地产投资确能拉动经济增长，且二者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。在短期内，前者每增加1%，后者约增加0.11902%；而从长期来看，前者每增加1%，后者增加的数字提升为0.59%。从房地产投资对经济增长的拉动作用来看，长期比短期更为显著。然而，就山东省的情况来说，虽然房地产投资仍能拉动经济增长，但拉动效率已经有所减弱，并不适合继续作为拉动经济增长的主引擎。此外，此经济系统具有较强的自我调节功能，能够自发地维护均衡，如果短期波动偶然偏离了长期均衡，这种偏离不会持续，更不会加剧，经济系统会逐渐发挥其收敛机制，以每个周期（－0.349653）的调整力度，不断纠正这种偏离，直至其回到均衡状态。鉴于此，结合山东省房地产业所存在的现实问题，最后提出具有针对性的政策建议。
【关键词】区域经济; 山东省; 房地产投资; 经济增长 【论文类型】应用型
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摘要
Title: Real estate investment and regional economic growth
-- Based on the time series data of Shandong Province
Major: Finance
Name: Zhang Ke Signature: _________________ Supervisor: Zhang Chong Kang Signature: _________________
Abstract
Consumption, exports and investment are the three main driving force for economic growth, but since the financial crisis of 2008, sluggish domestic demand and social consumption withering away, have made the role in promoting economic weakening; while exports affected by the global macro economic downturn would be difficult to stimulate economic growth. In this case, the investment will become the main means in China to promote the development of economy in the past few years. The real estate industry can not only absorb a large number of investments, but also effectively promote the urbanization construction. Thus, in a fairly long period of time, the real estate investment has been used as the main engine of economic growth. In recent years, a large number of social capital in the pursuit of high returns and the influx of real estate market, has made the real estate industry the most beautiful. While a huge amount of real estate investments pulling GDP growth and accelerating urbanization effectively, they also have caused abnormally high prices, local government debt, the irrational economic structure, and many other problems. It can be said that the real estate market affects the macro economy, and it intertwines with the people's emotions. Therefore, the study systematically investigated the relationship
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between investment and economic growth in the real estate has a certain theoretical and practical significance.
The real estate industry for economic and social development is good or bad has always been a controversial topic. From the national macro level, the dominant view in recent years has gone from a fanatical pursuit to calm reflection process. For the understanding of relying on real estate investment to promote economic development from the initial benefit is more than fraud becomes more harm than good. But it should be a concrete analysis of concrete problems, because of significant differences in regional characteristics and the real estate market in our region's economy, making the relevance and impact of real estate and economic growth in the community must also be different. If a certain area, the real estate investment can still effectively stimulate economic growth, to continue to increase investment in real estate is not unavailable; however, if the real estate investment to promote the inefficiency of economic development, even harmful, we have to speed up economic restructuring gradually to reduce the investment in real estate. Therefore, for different regions, we need to study different for different situations. Shandong province is one of the most developed provinces in China, since 2007, it has been ranked the top three nationwide. The rapid economic growth of Shandong province in addition to benefit from the reform and opening up policy and the adjacent Japan and South Korea location advantage, also depends on a variety of pillar industries. The real estate industry is one of the important pillar industries in Shandong province.
This paper first describes the status quo situation in real estate
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