中央民族大学本科生毕业论文(设计)
致谢
在去年12月到今年4月的这5个月中，我从最初的查阅资料到如今完成论文，我受到了各方面的帮助，克服了许多困难，在这里我要由衷的表示感谢。
首先，感谢我的指导教师姚祖喜副教授，他在我撰写论文的全部过程中给予了全面的指导和耐心的帮助。他不辞劳苦，非常关心我的论文撰写情况，交流写作心得和进度，每周对我指导至少两次，对不懂的问题和论文中出现和可能出现的问题进行耐心听取和解答。论文的完成凝结了导师大量的心血。
然后，我还要感谢我的父母及家人，他们的鼓励和对我的精神支持，是我一往直前不竭的动力，支撑着我从来不敢放弃自己，放弃努力前进。
另外，还要深深感谢在大学四年里学院里所有曾经教育过我，帮助过我的老师们，在学习道路上给予的悉心指导和谆谆教诲，这都将使我受益匪浅，伴随我在以后的人生道路上成长；理学院严谨的治学态度、实事求是、不断锐意创新的科学精神、勤勉忘我的工作作风都使我感触甚深，得益匪浅。
此外，还要感谢曾经帮助过我的同学们，他们的理解与支持给予我莫大的动力；在此向他们表示同样由衷的谢意。
其他的老师和同学在四年中也在不同方面给了我极大的帮助，我就不一一列举了，在此向他们表示由衷的谢意，谢谢！
最后，深深感谢中央民族大学，四年的学习生活，我在这里幸福的成长，在这里的所得所失所思所想是我终生的财富，激励着我在今后的道路上勇往直前！
20
中央民族大学本科生毕业论文(设计)
文献翻译
Beijing the next 10 years the changes in population trends
First, we look at the Beijing population of the future trend of development, Beijing is the future population projections. Because of the provisions of the different population, different population projections have different significance. Here's population projections, referring to Beijing's \
Demographic changes from the natural population changes and social changes in the decision. The natural population movements from birth and death decisions. From census data, the past 10 years the city's annual birth rate and mortality rate is very small changes, the birth rate for the 6-9 ‰, and further the trend of smaller, the mortality rate in the 5-6 ‰. Beijing has long life expectancy of the population over a 70-year-old, with the social and economic development, the improvement of living standards, life expectancy will continue to increase, but has reached a higher level, it is estimated that will not increase too quickly. But on the other hand, due to the impact of the ageing of the population, will lead to increased mortality. The total fertility rate of women in the four general survey of 1.3, has been very low, and the 1995 survey, less than 1.0, according to the fifth population census, women's total fertility rate has been reduced to 0.67. The annual rate of the city family planning, both urban and rural areas each year in more than 96 percent. As the current fertility policy in the coming period will not change, and the modern way of life, values, \only child of the marriage age will continue to increase the proportion of the population , From the policies and regulations that they than the previous generation of the birth rate has increased the possibility, it is estimated that women will not lead to a much higher fertility rate. As fertility and mortality rates are very low, so it is certain that in the next 10 years, the natural population changes on the effects of changes in the city's small population.
From the past 10 years, from Beijing's population growth is mainly caused by the intake of the population. In accordance with the present population management approach, to move into the population can be divided into two types: one is to move into the residence, a non-residence population intake, which is the normal flow by (foreign) population. This caused the population to move into two types of changes in the results are different. Move into the former population of less. The annual intake of the population relatively stable. From 1990 to 2000, an increase of the household registration population of only 750,000 people, the average annual growth rate of
21
中央民族大学本科生毕业论文(设计)
0.75%, excluding natural increase, the increase in population in each of the household registration only 6-7 million people. Demographic changes rather than larger household registration, and even Youshengyoujiang, although this may be due to statistical reasons. In general can still be considered to be the ever-increasing. Following we will discuss in detail the non-residence population growth.
1, non-residence population growth forecast
In accordance with the migration experience and theory, migration is mainly caused by economic reasons. The occurrence of major population movements from moving into the \is moving to a move out of the high level of economic development, people's income levels, or the resettlement areas (such as urban) way of life more appealing to young people, some, it is for some social reasons, For example, religious, ethnic and other reasons. To move out from, because local resources are limited, relative surplus of labor, such as China's rural areas were more prevalent in less that a large number of surplus labor force in there, so there is repulsion there. In short, because people are seeking a better life because of the inherent dynamic, if the regional socio-economic differences exist, there will be migration occurred.
The goal is the pursuit of migrants a better life, but if you can not move to provide work opportunities, then this goal will be difficult to achieve. \return home.\So there is a theory that the size of migration, and immigration and to provide employment opportunities is directly proportional to size.
Population migration and resettlement areas and also to move out on the distance. The resettlement areas and move out of the closer distance, the greater volume of migration. Of course, due to the development of modern traffic, narrowing the difference from this space. In accordance with the above theory, moved to Beijing as a major goal will naturally has. From the next 10 years, Beijing and other parts of the country's socio-economic differences will not be reduced, may also increase; added to meet the Olympic Games, because a large number of urban infrastructure, as well as the improvement of investment environment to attract foreign capital to enter , Will create more jobs, it is foreseeable that the scale of foreign Laijingrenyuan will be further expanded. It is estimated that by 2008, foreign population (Note: the foreign population here, including foreign resident population and transient population.) May reach 3.5 to 4 million people.
22
中央民族大学本科生毕业论文(设计)
2, population and gender, age structure prediction
Population and household registration of non-residence population movements on the city's social impact is also different. From the current system, if he has made Beijing accounts, he incorporated into the city's social security system, his health, aging, sickness and death, as well as employment, education, the Government must bear the responsibility If not Beijing accounts, the local government can control the possession, we can not control no matter. For example, a person no longer work because of old age, Beijing accounts can receive pensions, such as life difficult for a minimum living benefit, in the absence of Beijing accounts of his life there will be no security, but only to countries of origin To and from the population that will not cause an ageing population. In view of this consideration, the prediction of the population and household registration of non-residence population dealt with separately. In the forecast for the following assumptions:
① fertility: At present, Beijing women's total fertility rate TFR = 0.67 about women's life if
the fertility rate is 1.0, the long term, each year the average total fertility rate should be close to 1, from the existing data, Beijing Women's life is not married and the proportion of infertile or small, the current total fertility rate is far below the 1 Suozhi women to postpone childbirth, it can not be as predictable basis, taking into account the future and the couple have one child for the proportion of Increase, according to policies they can birth two children, so the assumption that the future of women's birth rate will be increased, a TFR gradually from the current 0.67 to 1.3 (2010).
② death: the fourth census, the infant mortality rate for males in Beijing 11.13 ‰,
0-year-old life expectancy is 72.16 years old; female infant mortality rate was 9.54 ‰, life expectancy is 75.17 years old (see \Chinese population\(Beijing Volume), China Statistics Press, 1994 p. 155-156). By the fifth census, the male infant mortality rate was 3.58 ‰, life expectancy is 74.93 years old. Female infant mortality rate was 3.61 ‰, life expectancy is 76.55 years old. In fact, whether it is \& Poor's,\died population greatly omitted, for example, according to the Ministry of Health to test the city's Dongcheng District, Dongcheng District, the infant mortality rate should be around 10 ‰, and the City of infants Mortality rate in the city should belong to all districts and counties in the lower areas. Therefore, this paper is in the forecast of death done that, assuming that the male infant mortality rate dropped from 9.5 ‰ to 2010
23
中央民族大学本科生毕业论文(设计)
of 5 ‰, life expectancy increased from 72.85 years to 74.85 years of age gradually; female infant mortality rate dropped from 8 ‰ to 5 ‰, Life expectancy increased from 76.15 years to 78.15 years old. Died the next level of about pushing 10. (To do so, although not a sufficient reason, the economic level with the death of mutual relations, according to Beijing the next 10 years the per capita GDP reached 6,000 U.S. dollars, in such a death under the assumption that the level is very low).
③ migration. By the experience of the past 10 years, Beijing average annual household
registration 6-7 to move into about 000 people. Since the reform of household registration system, the next intake of the population may increase. Assume that the next move of the population in each of the household registration for the 8-12 million people, with a median of 10 million people. Non-residence of the population moved, in the past 10 years to increase the number of faster, but this is due to big changes in policy and the situation of the stage, can not be used as the basis for future projections, as the society's stability and development, if the reforms maintain continuity, That non-residence of population changes will also change in an orderly manner. In accordance with the above model of employment with investment in the 2002-20008 alien population is estimated that the foreign resident population increase, low 80,000 people a year, at an annual high of 120,000, the median time for each of 100,000 people, as for the future 10 forecast assumptions.
In the above assumptions, 2001 to 2010 the total population in the population and the number of household registration forms from a change in that.
In accordance with the above programmes, in the Olympic Games held that year, (2008) population of 11.83 million household registration (in), the total population in 14760000 -1542 000, the total population can be controlled within the 15.5 million people. By the year 2010, household registration in population control within the 12.5 million people, while the median total population of 15.48 million people in. The average annual population growth rate of household registration in the 6-10 ‰ around, slightly lower than the growth rate over the past 10 years, this is because even though the population moving into the household registration rate than in the past (1995-2000, the annual net intake rate of 6.2 ‰ ) Increased, but because in the next 10 years, the residence of the natural population growth of negative growth, so it will be slightly lower than the population growth rate over the past 10 years. The total population
24