管理决策期末作业
山西财经大学
管 理 决 策
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翻译 案例分析 项目管理二班 2013/12/23
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管理决策期末作业
翻译 Group Decision Fiascoes Continue: Space Shuttle
Challenger and a Revised Groupthink Framework
Gregory Moorhead,i Richard Ference,i and Chris P. Necki
This paper reviews the decision situation surroun1g the decision to launch the space shuttle Challenger in January 1986 in the light of the groupthink hypothesis. A revised framework is presented that proposes time and leadership style as moderators of the manner in which group characteristics lead to groupthink symptoms.
KEY WORDS: groupthink; Challenger; decision making; group characteristics. INTRODUCTION
In 1972, a new dimension was added to our understanding of group decision making with the proposal of the groupthink hypothesis by Janis(1972).JaIlis coined the term \to refer to \mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group,when the members' striving for unanimity override their motivation torealistically appraise altemative courses of action\1972, p. 8). Thehypothesis was supported by his hindsight analysis of several political-military fiascoes and successes that are differentiated by the occurrence or non-occurrence of antecedent conditions, groupthink symptoms, and decision making defects.
In a subsequent volume,JaniS further explicates the theory and adds an analysis of the Watergate transcripts and various published memoirs and accounts of principals involved, concluding that the Watergate cover-up decision also was a result of groupthink(Janis, 1983). Both volumes propose prescriptions for preventing the occurrence of groupthink, many of which have
群体决策Fiascoes继续：航天飞机 Challenger和经修订的群体思维框架 格雷戈里·穆尔黑德，我理查德·费伦斯，我和Chris P. Necki
本文回顾了形势surroun曲1G到发射挑战者号航天飞机于1986年1月在群体思维假说的光的决定的决定。修改后的框架提出了建议时间和领导风格的方式版主其中群体特征导致群体思维症状。
关键词：群体思维;挑战者;决策;群体特征。 引言
1972年，一个新的层面加入群决策的群体思维假设由贾尼斯（1972 ）建议的理解。 JaIlis创造了“群体思维”一词来指“思维的人从事，当他们的模
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管理决策期末作业
式深深卷入组，当成员的争创一致重写他们的动机评估行动课程“ （詹尼斯， 1972年，第8页）一个有凝聚力的。被他事后几个政治军事fiascoes和成功是由先前的状况的发生或不发生分化，群体思维症状和决策的缺陷分析支持。
在随后的体积，詹尼斯进一步阐述理论，并增加了水门事件的成绩单和各种出版的回忆录，涉及校长的账目进行分析，得出的结论是水门事件掩盖决定也为群体思维（詹尼斯， 1983）的结果。两卷提出处方，以防止群体思维的发生，
management textbooks. Multiple advocacy decision-making procedures have been
adopted at the executive levels in many organizations, including the executive branch of the government. One would think that by 1986, 13 years after the publication of a popular book, that its prescriptions might be well ingrained in our management and decision-making styles. Unfortunately, it has not happened.
On January 28, 1986, the space shuttle Challenger was launched from Kennedy Space Center. The temperature that morning was in the mid-20's,well below the previous low temperatures at which the shuttle engines had been tested. Seventy-three seconds after launch, the Challenger exploded,killing all seven astronauts aboard, and becoming the worst disaster in space flight history. The catastrophe shocked the nation, crippled the American space program, and is destined to be remembered as the most tragic national event since the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963.
The Presidential Commission that investigated the accident pointed to a flawed decision-making process as a primary contributory cause. The decision was made the night before the launch in the Level I Flight Readiness Review meeting. Due to the work of the Presidential Commission,information concerning that meeting is available for analysis as a group decision possibly susceptible to groupthink.
In this paper, we report the results of our analysis of the Level Flight Readiness Review meeting as a decision-making situation that displays evidence of groupthink. We review the antecedent conditions, the groupthink symptoms, and the possible decision-making defects, as suggested by Janis (1983). In addition, we take the next and more important step of going beyond the development of another example of groupthink to 其中许多已经出现在大众媒
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管理决策期末作业
体，在对行政决策的书籍，并在管理的教科书。多宣传决策程序，已经通过在许多组织，包括政府的行政部门的行政级别。有人会认为，到1986年，一本畅销书，其处方可能还有根深蒂固在我们的管理和决策风格公布13年后。不幸的是，它并没有发生。
1986年1月28日，挑战者号航天飞机从肯尼迪航天中心发射升空。温度那天早上是在中间20年代，远低于前低的温度在该班车引擎已经过测试。发射后七三秒钟，挑战者爆炸，七名宇航员全部遇难船上，并成为最大的灾难的空间飞行的历史。灾难震惊全国，削弱了美国的太空计划，并注定要被记住作为自约翰· F·肯尼迪1963年遇刺最悲惨的全国性活动。
总统委员会认为调查事故指着一个有缺陷的决策过程中作为主要促成因素。推出的I级飞行准备审查会议前的决定是在晚上。由于总统委员会的工作，是有关该会议的信息可用于分析群体决策可能容易受到群体思维。
在本文中，我们报告我们的水平飞行准备评审会议，会显示群体思维的证据的决策情况的分析结果。我们回顾了先前的条件下，群体思维症状，可能的决策缺陷，所建议的贾尼斯（ 1983） 。此外，我们采取的超越群体思维的另一个例子的发展做出的重新调查小组决策过程的建议下一个更重要的步骤。
recommendations for renewed inquiry into
group decision-making processes. THEORY AND EVIDENCE
The groupthink hypothesis has been 4
管理决策期末作业
presented in detail in numerous publications other than Janis' books (Flowers, 1977; Courtright, 1978; Leana,1985; Moorhead, 1982; Moorhead & Montanari, 1986) and will not be repeated here. The major categories w01 be used as a framework for organizing the evidence from the meeting. Within each category the key elements will be presented along with meeting details that pertain to each. The meeting(s) took place throughout the day and evening from 12:36 pm (EST), January 27, 1986 following the decision to not launch the Challenger due to high crosswinds at the launch site. Discussions continued through about 12:00 midnight (EST) via teleconferencing and Telefax systems connecting the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Morton Thiokol(MTI) in Utah, Johnson Space Center in Houston, and the Marshall Space Flight Center. The Level I Flight Readiness Review is the highest level of review prior to launch. It comprises the highest level of management at the three space centers and at MTI, the private supplier of the solid rocket booster engines.
To briefly state the situation, the MTI engineers recommended not to launch if temperatures of the O-ring seals on the rocket were below 53 degrees Fahrenheit, which was the lowest temperature of any previous flight. Laurence B. Mulloy, manager of the Solid Rocket Booster Project at Marshall Space Flight Center, states:
. . .The bottom line of that, though, initially
was that Thiokol engineering, Bob Lund, who is the Vice President and Director of Engineering, who is here today, recommended that 51-L [the Challenger] not be launched if the O-ring temperatures predicted at launch time would be lower than any previous
理论与证实
该群体思维假说已经提出了详细的比Janis的书（花， 1977; Courtright ，1978; Leana ， 1985;穆尔黑德，1982;穆尔黑德和蒙塔纳， 1986）等众多的出版物，也不会在这里重复。大类W01被用作从会议主办证据的框架。在每个类别中的关键要素将随着会议的细节，涉及到每个人都可以提出。
从下午12:36 （美国东部时间），以下为不启动挑战者由于高侧风在发射场的决定的会议上（次）发生在白天和晚上， 1986年1月27日。讨论通过连接肯尼迪航天中心在佛罗里达州，莫顿聚硫橡胶（ MTI ）在犹他，约翰逊航天中心在休斯敦和马歇尔太 空飞行中心电话会议和电传系统继续通过大约午夜12:00 （美国东部时间） 。 I级飞行考前复习是在发射前审查的最高水平。它包括三个空间
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