管理决策期末作业
拒绝消极的信息。大家往往把重点放在支持性信息，并忽略可能蒙上了消极的光在他们的首选替代任何数据或信息。 MTI公司的代表多次试图在理论基础美国宇航局官员使用证明发射指出错误。在作出决定后，甚至，争论一直持续到美国宇航局的官员告诉MTI代表，它已不再是他的关注。
没有应急预案。大家花一点时间讨论决定可能产生的后果，因此，未能制定应急计划。有在的一个可能后果的讨论罗杰斯委员会的报告没有任何书面证据 不正确的决定。 证据总结
主要类别和群体思维假说的主要
内容已经呈现（尽管有些是暂时的）以及来自挑战者的开展之前讨论的证据，如报告在总统委员会调查事故。前因条件是存在于决策组，即使该集团在多个物理位置。领导人有一个首选的解决方案，并参与旨在促进它，而不是批判性评价替代品的行为。这些行为都是最领先的，以有缺陷的决策过程中的症状证据。 讨论
这种情况提供了决策中的组中受害者的群体思维症状，因为有这么多以前的组的另一个例子。它说明所描述的詹尼斯的情况特点，集体性思维的症状，和决策的缺陷。这种情况下，然而，还示出的是对群体思维需要被包括在群体思维模型的订正制剂的发
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管理决策期末作业
also illustrates several other aspects of situations that are critical to the development of groupthink that need to be included in a revised formulation of the groupthink model. First, the element of time in influencing the development of groupthink has not received adequate attention. In the decision to launch the space shuttle Challenger, time was a crucial part of the decision-making process. The launch had been dejayed once, and the window for another launch was fast closing. The leaders of the decision team were concerned about public and congressional perceptions of the entire space shuttle program and its continued funding and may have felt that further delays of the launch could seriously impact future funding. With the space window fast closing, the decision team was faced with a launch now or seriously damage the program decision. One top level manager's response to Thiokol's initial recommendation to postpone the launch indicates the presence of time pressure.
With this LCC (Launch Commit Criteria), i.e., do not launch with a temperature greater [siq than 53 degrees, we may not be able to launch until next April. We need to consider this carefully before we jump to any conclusions . . . (Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Accident, 1986, p. 96).
展是至关重要的情况下，其他几个方面。首先，时间在影响群体思维发展的因素并没有得到足够的重视。在发射挑战者号航天飞机的决定，时间是决策过程中的重要组成部分。推出了dejayed一次，再发射窗口是快速关闭。决定团队的领导者关注整个航天飞机计划的公众和国会的看法和其持续的资金，可能都觉得在推出进一步的延误可能严重影响未来的资金。与空间窗口快速关闭，决策小组现在正面临着一个发射或严重损害程序的决定。一个顶级经理人的回应聚硫橡胶的初步建议推迟发射表示时间压力的存在.
Time pressure could have played a and to self-censor their comments. that needs to be highlighted in a role in the group choosing to agree and to self-censor their comments.Therefore, time is a critical variable revised groupthink framework. We propose that time is an important moderator between group characteristics and the development of the groupthink symptoms. That is, in certain situations when there is pressure to make a decision quickly, the elements may combine to foster the development of groupthink.
The second revision needs to be in the role of the leadership of the decision-making
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管理决策期末作业
有了这个LCC （启动提交标准） ，即不带温度更高[ SIQ超过53度启动，我们可能无法启动，直到明年四月。我们需要仔细考虑，才妄下结论。 。 。 （总统委员会对航天飞机事故， 1986年，第96页的报告） 。
时间压力能够发挥和自我审查的意见。需要在组选同意在角色和自我审查他们comments.Therefore加以强调，时间是一个关键的变量修正群体思维框架。我们建议，时间是群特点和群体思维症状的发展之间的重要主持人。也就是说，在某些情况下，当有压力迅速做出决定，该元件可以结合培养群体思维的发展。
第二个版本需要在决策小组的领导作用。在挑战者号航天飞机事故，
group. In the space shuttle Challenger incident,
the leadership of the group varied from a shared type of leadership to a very clear leader in the situation. This may indicate that the leadership role needs to be clearly defined and a style that demands open disclosure of information, points of opposition, complaints, and dissension. Inclusion of leadership in a more powerful role in the groupthink framework needs to be more explicit than in the JaIlis formulation in which leadership is one of several group characteristics that can lead to the development of the groupthink symptoms. We propose the leadership style is a crucial variable that moderates the relationship between the group characteristics and the development of the symptoms.Janis (1983) is a primary form of evidence to support the inclusion of leadership style in the enhanced model. His account of why the same group succumbed to groupthink in one decision (Bay of Pigs) and not in another (Cuban Missile Crisis) supports the depiction of leadership style as a moderator variable. In these decisions, the only condition that changed was the leadership style of the President. In other words, the element that seemed to distinguish why groupthink occurred in the Bay of Pigs decision and not in the Cuban Missile Crisis situation is the president's change in his behavior.
These two variables, time and leadership style, are proposed as moderators of the impact of the group characteristics on groupthink symptoms. This relationship is portrayed graphically in Fig. 1. In effect, we propose that the groupthink symptoms result from the group characteristics, as proposed by JaniS' but only in the presence of the moderator variables of time and certain leadership styles.
Time, as an important element in the model, is relatively straightforward. When a
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管理决策期末作业
该集团的领导从领导的共享类型而异的情况下非常清晰的领导者。这可能表明，领导者的任务需要明确界定和样式，要求公开披露的信息，指出反对，抱怨和纠纷的。领导在群体思维框架更强大的作用列入需要比在制剂，其中的领导是几个群体特征，可导致的群体思维症状发展的一种更明确。我们提出的领导风格是温和派的群体特征和
symptoms.Janis
这两个变量，时间和领导风格，提出作为的群体特征对群体思维症状的影响主持人。这种关系在图以图形方式描绘。 1 。实际上，我们建议群体思维症状的群体特征导致，所建议的Janis的，但只有在时间和一定的领导风格主持人变量的存在。
时间，因为在模型中的一个重要因素，是比较简单的。当必须在很短的时间内，压力在成员同意，以避免
（ 1983）的发展之间的关系是一个证据的主要形式，以支持增强模式纳入领导作风的关键变量。他的帐户为什么同组屈从于群体思维于一体的决定（猪湾），而不是在另一个（古巴导弹危机）支持的领导 风格描绘作为调节变量。在这些决定，改变了唯一的条件是总统的领导风格。换句话说，这似乎区别，为什么发生群体思维在决策猪湾，而不是在古巴导弹危机形势的元素是在他的行为总统的变化。
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管理决策期末作业
decision must be made within a very short time frame, pressure on members to agree, to avoid time-consuming arguments and reports from outside experts, and to self-censor themselves may increase.These pressures inevitably cause group members to seek agreement. In Jams's original model, time was included indirectly as a function of the antecedent condition, group cohesion.Janis (1983) argued that time pressures can adversely affect decision quality in two ways. First, it affects the decision makers' mental efficiency and judgment, interfering with their ability to concentrate on complicated discussions, to absorb new information, and to use imagination to anticipate the future consequences of alternative courses of action. Second, time pressure is a source of stress Fig. 1. Revised groupthink framework. that will have the effect of inducing a policy-making group to become more cohesive and more likely to engage in groupthink. Leadership style is shown to be a moderator because of the importance it plays in either promoting or avoiding the development of the symptoms of the groupthink. The leader, even though she or he may not promote a preferred solution, may allow or even assist the group seeking
agreement by not forcing the group to critically appraise all alternative courses of action. The focus of this leadership variable is on the degree to which the leader allows or promotes discussion and evaluation of alternatives. It is not a matter of simply not making known a preferred solution; the issue is one of stimulation of critical thinking among the group.
Impact on Prescriptions for Prevention
The revised model suggests that more specific prescriptions for prevention of groupthink can be made. First, group members need to be aware of the impact that a short decision time frame has on decision processes.
行自我审查本身可能increase.These压力不可避免地导致组成员寻求协议内作出决定。在果酱的原始模型，时间被列入间接作为前提条件的函数，组cohesion.Janis （ 1983）认为，时间压力可以决定品质在两个方面产生不利影响。首先，它会影响决策者的心理效率和判断，与他们专注于复杂的讨论，吸收新的信息，并用想象力来预测的行动过程的未来后果的能力的干扰。第二，时间 - 压力在应力图的来源。 1 。经修订的群体思维框架。这将有诱导决策集团成为更具凝聚力，更有可能从事群体思维的影响。 领导风格被证明是因为它扮演的重要性，无论是促进或避免的群体思维的症状发展的主持人。领导者，即使他或她可能不会推动首选的解决方案，可以允许或什至协助小组寻求 协议通过不强行集团审慎评估行动的所有替代课程。这种领导变量的重点是在何种程度上的领导者允许或促进
耗时的参数和外部专家的报告，并进
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