上海大学硕士学位论文基于ARIMA和ARCH类模型的上海房价走势和波动性研究
Abstract
Realestateindustryhasbeenplayingallimportantroleinthedevelopmentof
sideiteconomyinShanghai.Ithastwosides.Ononeimprovesthedevelopmentof
aseconomy
and
afford
isaandhelpthedevelopmentoftherelativeindustries,suchaennstruetionalchemy.OnthetobuyaothersidethepricehasrisenithasalsolotSOthatmanypeoplecan’thouse,andinfluencedthestabilityofthewholesociety.ItbigissuetomakethehousepriCekeeppacewiththedevelopmentoftheeconomy.Sotheresearchofthepricetrendsandmotionc觚notonlyhelpthegovernmenttoguidetherealestatemarketbatalsoprovidetheinvestorsaclearidea
willbeoftoinvestit.Ifwegraspthetrendsandthemotionofthehousepri鹕it
greatusetothedevelopmentofeconomy,thestabilityofthewholesocietyandtheimprovementofpeople’Slivingstandard.
firstpart,otherThearticlehasbeendividedintosixparts.Inthepeople's
researchesabouttherealestatehavebeenintroduced,andauthor’Sinnovationhasalsobeenmentionedout.Inthesecondpart,thedevelopmentoftherealestatemarketinShanghaianditsinfluenceshavebeentotallydescribed.Inthethirdpart,factorsaffecting
wholehousehousepricehavebeenlistedoat.Therearesixfactorsaffectingtheandpriceincludingeconomy,policies,society,population,expectation
USetransportation.Inthefourthpartauthor
thetrendsandmotionoftheARIMAandARCHmodelstoanalyzehousepneninShanghai.Itisthemostimportantpartofthewholearticle.AccordingtoARIMAmodelsweknowtherealestatemarketinShanghaiistheweekeffectivemarketwhichnl咖sthatthehistoryinformationcanbereflectedbythe
characteristics
mentionedincurrentprice.AccordingtoARCHmodelswefindoatmanyonepricemotion.Inthefifthpartwayhavebeentocontroltheriskintherealestate
amarket:establishingfoamearlywarningmechanism.Thefinalpartisconclusion.
KeyWords:housepricing、ARIMAmodel、ARCHmodel