毕业论文（设计）
题 目： “保利地产”财务危机预警模式研究
系部名称： 会计系 专业班级： 财管 091 学生姓名： 杨 茜 学 号： 200904054102 指导教师： 刘慧翮 教师职称： 教 授
2013年5月24日
中原工学院信息商务学院毕业论文（设计）
摘 要
财务危机通常是指企业不能偿还到期债务的困难和危机，其极端形式是企业破产。为防止企业财务危机以及破产的发生，必须重视对企业财务危机的分析与研究。鉴于房地产行业的特殊性，需要有效的财务危机预警模式在经营期间及时发现潜在的财务风险，从而及时采取措施规避风险。本文运用比较分析法和报表分析法相结，通过财务数据和财务指标对“保利地产”的财务风险进行研究。理论研究与数据分析和模型实证分析相结合，针对保利地产内部的财务形式和管理模式做出分析并进行合理预测，以事实数据为基础，对“保利地产”公司的财务风险进行分析与评价，最终提出化解危机的对策。本文通过对“保利地产”公司财务风险的分析、评价、防范和控制，对实现我国房地产企业的可持续发展具有重要的意义。
关键字：财务管理，风险预测，财务分析，保利地产，盈利能力
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中原工学院信息商务学院毕业论文（设计）
Poly Real Estate Financial Crisis Warning Research
Abstract
Financial crisis usually refers to the enterprise is unable to repay maturing debt difficulties and crisis, its extreme form is the enterprise bankruptcy. So, in order to prevent the occurrence of enterprise financial crisis, we must pay attention to points and the research of enterprise financial crisis. The particularity of real estate industry is the need to have good financial crisis warning can timely take measures to avoid risk. This article uses the comparison analytic method and report analysis method, through the financial data and financial indicators of Poly real estate financial risk. Theory research and date analysis and model of analysis, mainly is aims at the inside of the poly form of financial crisis and the management pattern to make analysis and forecasting. This kind of analysis method based on the fact data, financial risk analysis and evaluation of poly, and put forward correction proposal. This article through the financial analysis of poly real estate, the realization of the sustainable development of real estate in destroy in our country, has great significance for the future.
Keywords：Financial analysis Risk prediction The real estate industry Poly real estate
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中原工学院信息商务学院毕业论文（设计）
目 录
1 绪论 ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 财务危机概述 ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 财务预警分析模型 ........................................................................................................... 1 1.3 中国房地产业行业特点分析 ........................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 入行门槛较低，但正在逐步提高 ............................................................................ 2 1.3.2 融资渠道单一，过分依靠银行贷款 ........................................................................ 2 1.3.3 行业集中度低，缺少行业统一标准 ........................................................................ 2 1.3.4 负债比率较高，财务风险较大 ................................................................................ 2 1.4 房地产行业的现状及未来的发展趋势 ........................................................................... 3 1.4.1 国内现状 .................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 发展趋势 .................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.3 保利地产简介 ............................................................................................................ 4 2 “保利地产”财务危机存在的原因分析 ............................................................................ 6 2.1 盈利能力分析 ................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 毛利率 ........................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.2 营业净利率 ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.3 净资产收益率 ............................................................................................................ 8 2.1.4 盈利能力分析小结 .................................................................................................... 9 2.2 营运能力分析 ................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1 应收账款周转率 ........................................................................................................ 9 2.2.2 存货周转率与存货周转期 ...................................................................................... 10 2.2.3 总资产周转率 .......................................................................................................... 11 2.2.4 营运能力分析小结 .................................................................................................. 12 2.3 偿债能力分析 ................................................................................................................. 12 2.3.1 短期偿债能力指标分析——营运资本 .................................................................. 12 2.3.2 短期偿债能力指标分析——流动比率 .................................................................. 13 2.3.3 短期偿债能力指标分析——速动比率 .................................................................. 14 2.3.4 长期偿债能力指标分析——资产负债率 .............................................................. 15 2.3.5 长期偿债能力指标分析——偿债能力分析小结 .................................................. 16 2.4 现金流量分析 ................................................................................................................. 16
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中原工学院信息商务学院毕业论文（设计）
2.4.1 经营现金流量分析 .................................................................................................. 16 2.4.2 投资现金流量分析 .................................................................................................. 18 2.4.3 筹资现金流量分析 .................................................................................................. 19 2.5 经营能力分析 ................................................................................................................. 20 2.5.1 管理能力分析 .......................................................................................................... 20 2.5.2 经营能力综合评价 .................................................................................................. 20 3 杜邦财务体系分析 .............................................................................................................. 21 3.1 杜邦财务分析简介 ......................................................................................................... 21 3.2 保利地产杜邦财务体系分析 ......................................................................................... 22 4 “保利地产”财务危机的化解对策 .................................................................................. 23 4.1 财务数据的改善建议 ..................................................................................................... 23 4.2 杜邦分析的经营建议 ..................................................................................................... 23 4.3 结合实际采取适当的风险策略 ..................................................................................... 24 4.3 对保利地产的建议 ......................................................................................................... 25 4.3.1 加强公司资产结构合理性，优化资产质量 .......................................................... 25 4.3.2 降低企业负债率，提高企业偿债能力，稳健公司财务状况 .............................. 25 4.3.3 进一步提升公司营业收入和净利润，增强盈利能力 .......................................... 25 4.3.4 拓展公司规模，增强营业能力 .............................................................................. 25 结 论 ........................................................................................................................................ 26 致 谢 ........................................................................................................................................ 27 参考文献 .................................................................................................................................... 28
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