不同出行群体出行特征分析 - 图文

2020-06-18 19:37

SHANDONGＵＮＩＶＥＲＳＩＴＹＯＦＴＥＣＨＮＯＬＯＧＹ

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不同出行群体出行特征分析

学院：交通与车辆工程学院专业：交通工程学生姓名：

学号：

指导教师：

2013 年 6 月

中文摘要

个体出行行为的研究是制定交通政策及出行需求管理的必经途径，对个体出行行为的研究，是进行城市交通规划、建设与管理的一项不可或缺的基础工作，也是城市社会学研究的重要课题。

本文主要6-12岁（小学）、13-16（初中）、17-20（高中）出行特征出发，从交通方式选择、出行链选择以及出发时刻选择等方面分析了学生出行特征及其对家庭成员的影响。在此分析的基础上，建立了考虑学生出行影响的家庭成员出行方式选择约束模型、出行链选择约束模型和出发时刻选择约束模型，然后结合模型的影响因素敏感性分析，探讨现有交通需求管理政策对学生及其陪伴人的适用性并挖掘基于学生出行需求管理的城市交通需求管理措施。

对于21岁以上成年人则通过交通出行特征统计，在出行率、交通方式、出行目的、出行时耗、出行距离、出行出发时刻等分析获得相应的相应出行规律。以此得出相应的出行需求管理措施。

关键词：不同人群，出行特征分析

Ⅰ

Abstract

Study of individual travel behavior is a necessary way to develop traffic policies and travel demand management, the study of individual travel behavior, is an important basic work for the construction and management of city traffic planning, the city, and also an important topic in sociological research.

This paper mainly 6-12 years old (primary school), 13-16 (middle), 17-20 (high school) travel characteristic, from the traffic mode choice, travel chain selection and departure time selection and other aspects of the students' characteristics and its effect on family members. Based on this analysis, established a family trip mode takes students to travel to influence the choice of constraint model, trip chain selection constraint model and departure time selection model, and then combined with the model of factors influencing the sensitivity analysis, the discussion of current traffic demand management policy suitable for students and its companion and mining students travel demand management city traffic demand management measures based on

For adults above the age of 21 by the traffic statistics, in the travel rate, traffic, travel purpose, travel time, travel distance, travel time analysis of corresponding traffic law. It is concluded that travel demand management measures accordingly.

Key words: Different groups of people、 Travel characteristics

Ⅱ

中文摘要 .............................................................................................................. II Abstract ................................................................................................................ III 目录 ..................................................................................................................... III 第一章绪论 .................................................................................................... - 1 -

1.1研究背景 ............................................................................................ - 1 - 1.2研究目的及意义 ................................................................................ - 1 - 1.3国内外研究现状 ................................................................................ - 2 -

1.3.1 国外研究现状 ......................................................................... - 2 - 1.3.2国内文献综述 .......................................................................... - 5 - 1.3.3国内研究现状问题 .................................................................. - 6 -

第二章不同人群出行特征分析 .................................................................... - 7 -

2.1不同人群出行特征分析 .................................................................... - 7 -

2.1.1出行率 ...................................................................................... - 7 - 2.1.2交通方式 .................................................................................. - 7 - 2.1.3出行目的 .................................................................................. - 8 - 2.1.4出行时耗分布 .......................................................................... - 8 - 2.1.5出行距离分布 .......................................................................... - 9 - 2.2儿童出行行为特征随年龄变化特性分析 ...................................... - 10 -

2.2.1出行率随年龄变化特性 ....................................................... - 10 - 2.2.2交通方式随年龄增长 ............................................................ - 11 - 2.2.3出行目的随年龄变化特性 .................................................... - 11 - 2.2.4平均出行时耗随年龄变化特性 .......................................... - 12 - 2.2.5平均出行距离随年龄变化特性 .......................................... - 13 - 2.2.6出行出发时刻随年龄变化特性 ............................................ - 14 -

III

2.3儿童出行行为特性演变趋势分析 ................................................. - 14 -

2.3.1出行率演变趋势 .................................................................... - 15 - 2.3.2交通方式演变趋势 ................................................................ - 15 - 2.3.3出行目的演变趋势 ................................................................ - 15 - 2.3.4 出行时耗分布演变趋势 ....................................................... - 16 - 2.3.5 出行距离分布演变趋势 ....................................................... - 16 - 2.3.6 出行出发时刻演变趋势 ....................................................... - 17 - 2.4儿童出行对家庭成员出行行为的约束影响分析 .......................... - 17 -

2.4.1 交通方式选择影响分析 ....................................................... - 18 - 2.4.2 出发时刻决策影响分析 ....................................................... - 18 - 2.4.3出行链选择影响分析 ............................................................ - 19 - 2.5小结 .................................................................................................. - 19 - 第三章儿童出行对家庭成员的交通方式选择约束模型研究 .................. - 21 -

3.1模型数据概述 .................................................................................. - 21 - 3.2 基于儿童出行约束的交通方式选择模型 ..................................... - 22 -

3.2.1 MNL 模型 ............................................................................. - 23 - 3.2.2方式选择构成差异性分析 .................................................... - 23 - 3.2.3 模型的建立及回归结果 ....................................................... - 24 - 3.2.4方式选择的影响因素量化分析 ............................................ - 28 - 3.3 小结 ................................................................................................. - 31 - 第四章具有独立出行能力的出行人群特征分析 ...................................... - 32 -

4.1 具有独立出行能力出行目的 ......................................................... - 33 - 4.2具有独立出行方式分布 .................................................................. - 34 - 4.3 具有独立出行能力的群体出行时耗 ............................................. - 36 - 第五章结论和展望 ...................................................................................... - 37 -

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