摘要
在房价持续波动、消费明显不足、房地产投资者急剧增加的经济
大背景下,房地产作为居民持有资产中价格波动较为频繁的品种,其
价格的波动是否对居民消费产生影响越来越受到理论界和国家相关
部门的重视。因此,房地产价格波动对居民消费的影响这一选题有着
重要的理论背景和现实背景。
本文在总结梳理房价波动影响消费相关理论的基础上,采用平稳
性检验、差分、协整检验、格兰杰检验及回归模型、ECM误差修正
模型等方法,运用全国时间序列、城市面板数据、截面数据三个层面
来研究房价波动对居民消费的影响力实证表明:房价波动在全国地域
内能够引起消费性支出产生变化;长期的城市房地产财富效应是正向
的,短期来看是负向的;房价下降对居民消费产生负的影响,房价下
降对消费的收缩作用小于房价上涨对消费的促进作用。接下来探讨了
现象背后的原因,即财富效应的传导机制及制约因素。通过理论归纳
与实证研宄,我国房地产市场财富效应的传导机制主要为消费者信心
效应与房地产银行信贷的杠杆效应。通过与发达国家研究结果的对比,
我国财富效应还没有得到充分发挥,影响房地产财富效应的因素主要
有很多,但是在现阶段制约我国房地产财富效应的首要原因在于房价 1
浙江工业大学硕士学位论文房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研宄
上涨速度过快,自主性需求购买力不足,*其次是消费者的信贷g束与
文化习惯的差异,货币政策调控频繁,金融工具的不完善。
关键词:财富效应,格兰杰检验,误差修正,传导机制,实证研宄 II
浙江工业大学顾士学位论文房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研宄
AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE IMPACTOF THE
HOUSING PRICES ON CONSUMPTION
ABSTRACT
Housing prices continuing to be volatile, the consumpation is obviously insufficient,
and there is a sharp increase in real estate investors.In this context,the real estate as
residents' holdings varieties, the fluctuations of itsprices are more frequent.Whether
the price volatility has an impact on consumptionhas drawn increasing attention of the
relevant departments. Therefore, this topic of real estate price fluctuations on
household consumption has important theoretical background and practical
background.
This paper summarizes and combs theoriesof price fluctuations affecting
consumption,then base on the method of stationary test, differential,cointegration test,
Granger test ,the regression model, and error correction model, use three kinds of data
(the national time series, city panel data,cross-section) to study the impact of price
fluctuations on household consumption. Empirical evidence shows that: price
fluctuations can cause changes in the consumer spending in the national territory;
term city real estate wealth effect is positive, but the short term is negative; decline in
housing prices have a negative impact on the consumption,and the contraction from
the decline in housing pricey is less than the promotionfrom the rising housing prices.
Next, the paper explores the reasons behind the phenomenon,that the wealth effect of
conduction mechanisms and constraints. Summarized by theory and empirical
research, the transmission mechanisms ofwealth effect inChina's real estate
marketsare two ways: consumer confidence effect and the leverage effect of real
estate bank credit.By contrast with the findings in developed countries, the wealth
effect in China has not given full play. There are many factors affecting the real estate
wealth effect. However, the primary reasons for restricting the real estate wealth effect
in the present stage is that the fast rising house prices, lack of purchasing power of
demand autonomy, differences in consumer credit constraints and cultural habits,
frequent regulated currency policy and the imperfect financial instruments.
KEYWORDS : Wealth effect; Granger test; error correction; the transmission
mechanism; empirical study III
浙江工业大学硕士学位论文房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研宄 目录 1 1
1.1研宄的背景及意义 1
l.i.i研究背景 1
1.1.2研宄意义 3
1.2研究内容与技术路线 4
1.2.1研宄ft容 4
1.2.2技术路线 5
1.3研究方法与创新点 6
1.3.1研宄方法 6
1.3.2创亲if点 6
1.4相关概念的界定 7
1.4.1财富效应 7
1.4.2房地产及房地产价格波动 7 1.4.3 消费 8 1.4.4 收入 8
2.文献回顾 9
2.1国外研宄 9
2.1.1房价波动影响消费的内涵及其争议 9
2.1.2房价波动影响消费的机理和渠道 10
2.1.3房价波动影响消费的实证检验
11
2.2国内研究 14
2.2.1房地产市场相关研宂 14
2.2.2房地产市场影响消费的研宄 14
2.2.3房价和股价波动影响消费的比较研究 17
2.3本章小结 19
3.相关理论基础及理论模型 21
3.1相关理论基础 21
3.1.1绝对收入假说 21
3.1.2PIH持久收入假说 21
3.1.3生命周期理论 22
3.1.4实际余额效应 23
3.2理论模型分析 23 V
浙江工业大学硕士学位论文房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研宄
3.2.1生命周期-持久收入模型(LC-P旧) 23