中药注射液行业上市公司案例分析
D&A前经营利润 -折旧与摊销 经营利润 -利息支出 +利息收入 非经营性收入 税前利润 -所得税 净利润 经营性租赁调整 经营性租赁承诺的净现值 公司债务税前成本 相应利息支出 D&A前经营利润+相应利息支出 调整后经营利润 调整后税前利润 债务融资可享受的最大税收利益 2
0.00 19,112.42 25,851.06 24,371.53 33,126.52 39,957.15 4,321.23 1,193.39 395.49 6,631.76 945.39 1,408.39 2,745.58 0.00 2,319.49 0.00 4,398.26 无 0.00 0.00 无 0.00 4,746.79 4,132.77 145.04 -58.00 4,398.26 无 0.00 4,692.74 1,923.51 106.53 0.00 5,481.77 无 16,442.41 21,086.03 23,624.06 31,643.24 37,712.69 1,552.71 -1,678.07 2,445.91 无 736.75 17,197.22 19,870.96 25,943.55 27,597.52 35,895.72 14,751.31 19,134.21 21,545.29 23,199.26 30,413.95 19,112.42 25,851.06 24,371.53 33,126.52 39,957.15 16,442.41 21,086.03 23,624.06 31,643.24 37,712.69 18,390.62 20,816.35 25,943.55 31,730.28 37,819.22 4,597.65 5,204.09 6,485.89 7,932.57 9,454.81 数据来源：各公司2012年年报
各公司不同财务杠杆下的资本成本估计
表29：不同财务杠杆下的资本成本估计
昆明制药 D/(D+E) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 14.78% D/(D+E) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Ke 8.06% 8.42% 8.87% 9.45% 10.22% 11.31% 12.93% 15.64% 21.06% 37.32% 8.62% Ke 6.74% 7.00% 7.31% 7.72% 8.26% 9.01% 10.15% Kd 1.65% 2.78% 3.15% 3.53% 4.65% 5.40% 9.62% 15.07% 15.19% 15.28% 3.83% 金陵药业 Kd 3.53% 4.28% 5.03% 5.78% 6.38% 10.29% 14.57% WACC 6.74% 6.72% 6.85% 7.13% 7.50% 9.65% 12.80% 最优债务比例 WACC 8.06% 7.85% 7.72% 7.67% 7.99% 8.36% 10.94% 15.24% 16.36% 17.48% 7.91% 最优债务比例 目前债务比例 备注说明 ~ 31 ~
中药注射液行业上市公司案例分析
70% 80% 90% 42.89% D/(D+E) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2.47% D/(D+E) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 22.01% D/(D+E) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 8.76%
12.04% 15.82% 27.16% 8.45% Ke 7.23% 7.53% 7.89% 8.36% 8.99% 9.87% 11.19% 13.39% 17.78% 30.96% 7.30% Ke 8.00% 8.36% 8.80% 9.38% 10.14% 11.21% 12.82% 15.49% 20.84% 36.89% 8.91% Ke 6.57% 6.80% 7.10% 7.48% 7.99% 8.70% 9.77% 11.55% 15.11% 25.78% 6.77% 14.78% 14.93% 15.05% 11.22% 上海凯宝 Kd 2.78% 3.53% 4.28% 5.03% 6.38% 9.60% 14.00% 14.28% 14.50% 14.66% 3.09% 康缘药业 Kd 2.03% 2.78% 3.53% 4.28% 5.03% 6.15% 6.38% 6.84% 14.38% 14.56% 7.67% 益佰制药 Kd 1.28% 1.28% 3.38% 3.64% 6.38% 9.40% 13.83% 14.14% 14.38% 14.56% 3.09% 13.95% 15.11% 16.26% 9.64% WACC 7.23% 7.13% 7.17% 7.36% 7.95% 9.73% 12.87% 14.01% 15.15% 16.29% 7.20% WACC 8.00% 7.80% 7.75% 7.85% 8.09% 8.68% 8.95% 9.44% 15.67% 16.79% 8.63% WACC 6.57% 6.25% 6.36% 6.33% 7.34% 9.05% 12.21% 13.37% 14.52% 15.68% 6.45% 目前债务比例 最优债务比例 目前债务比例 最优债务比例 目前债务比例 最优债务比例 目前债务比例 ~ 32 ~
中药注射液行业上市公司案例分析
表30：最优债务比率下资本成本节约及潜在股价提升（单位：万）
项目 公司价值 现行债务比率 现行债务比率下的 资本临界回报率 现行融资结构下的资本成本 公司最优债务比率 最优债务比率下的 资本临界回报率 最优结构下的资本成本 预期节省资本成/年 假定 g＝Rf 永续增长年金现值 公司股本总数（万股） 股价潜在提高值（元/股） 昆明制药 708,851.15 14.78% 7.91% 56,076.96 30% 7.67% 54,382.74 1,694.22 3.72% 42,870.53 31,417.60 1.36 金陵药业 607,174.21 42.89% 9.64% 58,520.38 10% 6.72% 40,831.60 17,688.78 3.72% 588,672.80 50,400.00 11.68 上海凯宝 539,648.45 2.47% 7.20% 38,841.87 10% 7.13% 38,463.18 378.68 3.72% 11,113.41 26,304.00 0.42 康缘药业 610,582.27 22.01% 8.63% 52,713.38 20% 7.75% 47,304.12 5,409.26 3.72% 134,312.24 41,564.67 3.23 益佰制药 820,402.11 8.76% 6.45% 52,907.67 30% 6.33% 51,917.44 990.22 3.72% 37,964.35 36,070.10 1.05 第6章 股利政策评价
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净利润 折旧 资本开支 非现金WC增加 债前FCFE 净债务CF 股权自由现金流 股利 股利支付比率 现金返还 现金返还/FCFE 股权自由现金流
表31 康缘药业股权自由现金流（单位：万）
2008 15,249 - 8,574 - 6,675 - 6,675 1,665 10.92% 1,665 24.95% 2009 16,280 3,411 2,815 -22,846 39,721 -1,000 38,721 3,997 24.55% 3,997 10.32% 2010 17,716 3,405 23,655 -2,329 -205 9,500 9,295 4,316 24.36% 4,316 46.44% 2011 17,859 4,188 25,939 -13,301 9,409 19,000 28,409 2,494 13.96% 2,494 8.78% 2012 23,443 4,301 15,996 26,892 22,500 49,392 2,494 10.64% 2,494 5.05% 平均 18,109 3,061 15,396 16,498 10,000 26,498 2,993 16.89% 2,993 19.11% 总计 90,547 15,305 76,979 -53,619 82,492 50,000 132,492 14,966 16.53% 14,966 11.30% -15,144 -10,724 金陵药业股权自由现金流（单位：元）
金陵药业 净利润 2008 179,259,439 折旧 60,193,188 2009 210,619,932 57,270,070 2010 232,702,242 58,572,549 2011 264,007,734 59,844,055 2012 94,366,415 66,317,586 平均 196,191,153 60,439,489 总计 980,955,763 302,197,447 ~ 33 ~
中药注射液行业上市公司案例分析
资本开支 22,111,881 非现金WC增加 -20,119,069 债前FCFE 237,459,814 净债务CF 股权自由现金流FCFE 股利 股利支付比率 现金返还 现金返还/FCFE -23,478,103 213,981,711 12,820,499 7.15% 12,820,499 5.99% 96,595,694 82,144,638 89,149,671 19,675,438 108,825,108 5,669,880 2.69% 5,669,880 5.21% 95,479,819 102,554,178 93,240,794 49,915,357 143,156,151 8,504,849 3.65% 8,504,849 5.94% 82,204,876 106,042,288 135,604,624 30,000,000 165,604,624 11,274,571 4.27% 11,274,571 6.81% 188,761,559 -10,226,727 -17,850,832 4,110,000 -13,740,832 119,063 0.13% 119,063 -0.87% 97,030,766 52,079,062 107,520,814 16,044,538 123,565,353 7,677,772 3.58% 7,677,772 4.62% 485,153,830 260,395,309 537,604,071 80,222,692 617,826,763 38,388,862 3.91% 38,388,862 6.21% 上海凯宝股权自由现金流（单位：万）
净利润 折旧 资本开支 非现金WC增加 债前FCFE 净债务CF 股利 股利支付比率 现金返还 现金返还/FCFE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 平均 总计 5,765 6,866 12,370 16,756 24,219 13,195 65,976 483 555 1,288 2,181 2,745 1,450 7,252 1,128 12,570 5,100 6,885 5,220 6,181 30,903 -1,572 -2,394 -12,017 -9,166 -2,648 -5,559 -27,797 6,692 -2,755 20,575 21,218 24,392 14,024 70,122 1,930 9,920 - - - 2,370 11,850 - - 3,288 7,014 15,782 5,217 26,084 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 26.58% 15.98% 41.86% 33.06% 65.16% 64.70% 26.72% 22.75% 39.54% 31.82% - - 3,288 7,014 15,782 5,217 26,084 股权自由现金流 8,622 7,165 20,575 21,218 24,392 16,394 81,972 昆明制药股权自由现金流（单位：元）
净利润 2012 201,181,000
2011 145,456,000 2010 98,677,300 2009 66,954,300 2008 36,206,600 平均 109,695,040 总计 548,475,200 ~ 34 ~
中药注射液行业上市公司案例分析
折旧 43,212,350 资本开支 123,222,000 非现金WC增加 -38,936,500 债前FCFE 160,107,850 净债务CF 120,000,000 股权自由现金流FCFE 股利 股利支付比率 现金返还 现金返还/FCFE 280,107,850 - 0.00% 36,234,270 42,851,500 -52,804,300 191,643,070 1,000,000 192,643,070 - 0.00% 36,384,430 64,156,800 -58,591,200 129,496,130 -1,000,000 128,496,130 - 0.00% 36,012,660 18,819,700 -943,800 85,091,060 -62,000,000 23,091,060 - 0.00% 33,865,180 13,089,800 -15,249,550 72,231,530 -30,600,000 41,631,530 - 0.00% 37,141,778 52,427,960 -33,305,070 127,713,928 5,480,000 133,193,928 - 0.00% 185,708,890 262,139,800 -166,525,350 638,569,640 27,400,000 665,969,640 - 0.00% - 0.00% - 0.00% - 0.00% - 0.00% - 0.00% - 0.00% - 0.00% 益佰制药股权自由现金流（单位：万）
净利润 折旧 资本开支 非现金WC增加 债前FCFE 净债务CF 股利 股利支付比率 现金返还 现金返还/FCFE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 平均 总计 9,811 12,356 19,687 26,781 33,876 20,502 102,511 4,361 3,588 4,336 4,798 4,693 4,355 21,776 6,286 4,462 4,965 1,423 2,096 3,846 19,232 2,193 -10,076 -18,497 -6,487 12,863 -4,001 -20,004 5,694 21,558 37,555 36,643 23,610 25,012 125,060 -5,578 5,208 -1,937 -5,070 5,160 -12,809 -64,047 - 2,352 - 2,886 5,410 2,130 10,648 - - 19.03% 8.79% - - 10.78% 9.14% 15.97% 18.80% 9.16% 7.35% 10.39% 8.67% - 2,352 - 2,886 5,410 2,130 10,648 股权自由现金流 116 26,766 35,618 31,573 28,770 24,569 122,843
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股利政策分析
康缘药业：从表中的数据我们看到，康缘药业每年都进行现金形式的股利支付，2009年和2010年股利支付比例占到净利润的25%，2008年、2011年和2012年股利支付比例在百分之十
~ 35 ~