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2021-02-21 13:54

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£¨2£©ÇóËæ»ú±äÁ¿ µÄÊýѧÆÚÍûE ;

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½â £¨1£©Éè¸ÃͬѧÔÚA´¦Í¶ÖÐΪʼþA,ÔÚB´¦Í¶ÖÐΪʼþB,ÔòʼþA,BÏ໥¶ÀÁ¢,ÇÒP(A)=0.25,P(A) 0.75, P(B)= q2,P(B) 1 q2.

¸ù¾Ý·Ö²¼ÁÐÖª: =0ʱP(ABB) P(A)P(B)P(B) 0.75(1 q2)=0.03,ËùÒÔ

2

1 q2 0.2£¬q2=0.8.

£¨2£©µ± =2ʱ, P1=P(ABB ABB) P(ABB) P(ABB)

P(A)P(B)P(B) P(A)P(B)P(B)=0.75 q2( 1 q2)×2=1.5 q2( 1 q2)=0.24

µ± =3ʱ, P2 =P(ABB) P(A)P(B)P(B) 0.25(1 q2)=0.01, µ± =4ʱ, P3=P(ABB) P(A)P(B)P(B) 0.75q2=0.48, µ± =5ʱ, P4=P(ABB AB) P(ABB) P(AB)

2

2

P(A)P(B)P(B

) P(A)P(B) 0.25q2(1 q2) 0.25q2=0.24

ËùÒÔËæ»ú±äÁ¿ µÄ·Ö²¼ÁÐΪ

Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿ µÄÊýѧÆÚÍûE 0 0.03 2 0.24 3 0.01 4 0.48 5 0.24 3.63 £¨3£©¸ÃͬѧѡÔñ¶¼ÔÚB´¦Í¶ÀºµÃ·Ö³¬¹ý3·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP(BBB BBB BB)

P(BBB) P(BBB) P(BB) 2(1 q2)q22 q22 0.896;

¸ÃͬѧѡÔñ£¨1£©Öз½Ê½Í¶ÀºµÃ·Ö³¬¹ý3·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ0.48+0.24=0.72. ÓÉ´Ë¿´À´¸ÃͬѧѡÔñ¶¼ÔÚB´¦Í¶ÀºµÃ·Ö³¬¹ý3·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊ´ó..


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