学校代码：10254 密 级： 论文编号：
上海海事大学
SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
硕 士 学 位 论 文
MASTER DISSERTATION
论文题目： 上海港与核心腹地上海市经济动态
发展研究
学科专业： 产业经济学 作者姓名： 陈建水 指导教师： 张丽娟 完成日期： 2011年6月
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本文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。论文中除了特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，不包含其他人或其他机构已经发表或撰写过的研究成果。其他同志对本研究的启发和所做的贡献均已在论文中作了明确的声明并表示了感谢。
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上海海事大学硕士论文 上海港与核心腹地上海市经济动态发展研究
摘 要
港口能带动城市经济的发展，城市经济的发展能促进港口的发展。港口对城市的带动主要表现为第一层次的港口建设，第二层次的物流效益，第三层次的产业发展及变迁。城市对港口的促进主要是第一层次的货物源地，第二层次的产业结构演变对港口货物及货物类别的影响，第三层次的城市经济服务化下的港口升级。目前上海港已经成为中国第一大港，同时上海市经济结构也发生了深刻变化，越来越向第三产业倾斜。上海港将面临着直接经济腹地货物来源紧缩及结构改变的问题，上海港与上海市经济的发展面临着一些新的急需要解决的问题。因此如何在新的形势下实现上海港与上海市经济的协调共进发展，在当前科学发展与转型升级背景下研究与探讨上海港与核心腹地上海市经济的发展问题是十分必要和具有重要现实意义的。
论文通过产业视角，以计量分析来全面研究上海港与核心腹地上海市经济的关系，借助上海港的相关指标与上海市经济相关指标的关联性及因果性，来发掘港口与城市经济动态发展的机理。首先，分析了研究背景及其意义，确定了研究方法及论文框架。随后，对相关理论作了阐述，主要有港口与城市经济理论、产业结构理论、协整理论。着重阐述了港口对城市的带动作用及城市对港口的促进作用机理，以及产业结构理论中的霍夫曼经验法则。接着分析了上海港与核心腹地上海市经济现状，通过上海港相关指标与上海市经济相关指标的关联性分析，发现上海市重工业生产总值与上海港集装箱吞吐量相关度最高，上海市重工业生产总值与上海港进港货物吞吐量相关度比较高，而且通过协整分析表明它们有一种长期稳定的伴随关系。同时分析了上海市产业结构演变主要是轻重工业比例系数的变化与上海港口货物、集装箱吞吐量的关系。然后以因果检验及相关计量方法对上海港与核心腹地上海市经济动态发展作实证分析，最后论文提出了新形势下上海港与核心腹地上海市经济动态协调发展的建议。这对产业结构调整下的上海港与上海市经济取得更好的共进协同发展具有一定的指导意义。
关键词：上海港，腹地经济，动态发展，协整
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上海海事大学硕士论文 上海港与核心腹地上海市经济动态发展研究
ABSTRACT
Port to promote urban economic development, urban economic development can promote the development of ports. Port mainly driven by the city for the first level of port construction, the second level of logistics efficiency, the third level of industrial development and change. The promotion of the port city is the first level of the main sources of goods, the second level of evolution of industrial structure on port cargo and the impact of commodity, the third level of economic services under the city to upgrade the port.Currently Shanghai has become China's largest port, Shanghai, the economic structure has also undergone profound changes, more and more tilted to the tertiary industry. Shanghai will face direct economic hinterland of the origin of goods, tighter and the problem of structural change, the economic development of Shanghai Port and Shanghai is facing some new problems to be solved urgently needed. Therefore, how to achieve the new situation of economic coordination of Shanghai together with the development of Shanghai, in the development and transformation and upgrading of current scientific research and explore the context of the hinterland of Shanghai Port and the core problem of economic development in Shanghai is very necessary and important practical significance.
By industry perspective to a comprehensive study of quantitative analysis to the hinterland of Shanghai Port and the core of the relationship between the economy of Shanghai, with Shanghai, Shanghai, relevant indicators and related indicators of economic relevance and causality, to discover the port and the dynamic development of the urban economy mechanism. First, the background and significance of the study to determine the research methods and in this way. Subsequently, the theory expounded the main port and urban economic theory, industrial structure theory, cointegration. Focuses on the port and the city's leading role in promoting the role of port cities in the mechanism, and the theory of industrial structure in the Hoffman rule of thumb. Then analyzes the hinterland of Shanghai
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上海海事大学硕士论文 上海港与核心腹地上海市经济动态发展研究
Port and the core of the current economic situation in Shanghai, Shanghai through Shanghai-related indicators and related indicators of the relevance of economic analysis, we found heavy GDP of Shanghai container throughput of Shanghai Port associated with the highest degree of heavy industry in Shanghai total cargo throughput of Hong Kong and Shanghai into the relatively high correlation, but also through cointegration analysis show that they have a relationship with long-term stability. Also analyzed the evolution of industrial structure in Shanghai is mainly light and heavy industrial scale factor changes and Shanghai port cargo and container throughput of the relationship. Then causality test and measurement methods related to the core of the hinterland of Shanghai, Shanghai Port and empirical analysis of economic dynamics, and finally this paper, the core of the new situation, the hinterland of Shanghai Port and the coordinated development of Shanghai, the recommendations of economic dynamics. This industrial restructuring under the Port of Shanghai and Shanghai together to achieve better coordination of economic development has a certain significance.
Chen jianshui (Industrial Economics)
Directed by Zhang Lijuan
KEYWORDS: port of shanghai，the hinterland economy，dynamic development，cointegration
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