摘要
房地产估价中，市场比较法较于其它估价方法估价原理简单易懂，最重要的 是在估价过程中能直接反映房地产的市场状态，这些特点使其在估价方法体系中 成为最简单、最直接、最常用的一种方法，得到国际估价界的公认。我国《房地 产估价规范》规定:在有条件的地方必须应用市场比较法来评估土地或房地产价 格。所以如何科学地运用市场比较法进行房地产估价已经成为一种趋势，是我国 房地产界迫切需要解决的问题。
本文首先从理论上对房地产价格的影响因素、房地产估价的原理及难点、市 场比较法的应用原理、步骤及应用现状做了深入研究，总结了市场比较法在我国 应用过程中存在的主要问题和难点:可比实例选择的随意性，因素修正的主观性、 不完备性，交易案例不易得到等，以及目前所采用的市场比较法数学估价模型存 在的不科学性和不合理性，急需寻找更科学、更合理的估价模型以及更科学地应 用市场比较法估价的途径。
接着，本文探讨了模糊理论在市场比较法中的应用，在现有房地产估价理论 的基础上和模糊理论研究成果的基础上，利用模糊数学的隶属原则，用特征因素 函数值所组成的数组表示房地产的属性。通过计算待估商品房和案例商品房之间 的贴近度，找出最相似的案例，通过贴近度进行指数平滑，求出待估商品房的价 格，以此建立数学模型。并通过传统市场比较法与修正后比较法的精度进行了比 较，证明了该模型的可行性。最后，用一个案例说明了该模型的实例应用。 关键词:市场比较法;模糊数学;贴近度 AbstfaCt
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Key、V6rds:MarketComparisonApproach:FuZzyMathematics:SimilarityDegee 飞厂 目录 第一章绪论······················································································??l 第一节研究背景·····························································································一1 第二节房地产估价研究评述·········································································??2 第三节本文研究的内容和意义·····································································??4 第二章房地产估价的理论基础······················································??7 第一节房地产价格及其影响因素分析·························································??7 第二节房地产估价的基本原理及难点························································??巧 第三章市场比较法分析·································································??18 第一节市场比较法综述··························??，’’·············································??18 第二节市场比较法的估价步骤····································································??19 第三节传统市场比较法的缺陷····································································??30 第四节市场比较法改进的思路····································································??31 第四章与房地产估价相关的模糊数学理论······，··························??32 第一节模糊数学的概念··，·························································，········??‘二“““‘.32 第二节最大隶属原则和择近原则································································??37
第五章市场比较法模糊数学估价模型·········································??41 第一节概述····································································································??引 第二节模糊数学评估模型的建立············································，···················??41
第三节基于模糊数学的比较法的评估流程设计·······································??44
第四节传统市场比较法与修正后比较法的精度比较································??44 第六章改进市场比较法的实例应用·············································??50
第一节整理估价对象和备选可比实例的资料············································??50 第二节选取可比实例····················································································??51 第三节合理确定最终估价结果····································································??53 第七章结论和展望·········································································??55 第一节结论································································，···································??55 第二节展望····································································································??55 参考文献···························································································??57 致谢································，··········，·······················································??58 ColltelltS
Chapter1Foreword.········································································……1
Section1Backgroundofresearch····································································……1 Seetion2DeseriPtionofrealestate Seetion3Contentsandsignifieanee aPPraisal·······，··········································??2 inthisPaPer’··········································……
ChaPter2BasictheoryofrealestateaPPraisal·····························……7
Seetion1AnalysisofthePrieeandinflueneefaetorofrealestate················……7 Seetion2BasietheoryandkeyPointofrealestate········································……15
ChaPter3AnalysesofmarketcomParisonaPProach··················……18 Seetion1DeseriPtionofmarketeomParisonaPProaeh································……18 Section2Stepsofmarketcomparisonapproach···········································……19 Seetion3DisadvantagesoftraditionalmarketeomParisonaPProach········……30 Section4ImProvementofmarketcomParisonaPProach·····························……31 ChaPter4Fuzzymathematiestheoriesaboutrealestate
approach········································································……32
Section1Descriptionoffuzzymathematics’··················································……32 Seetion2SubordinationPrineiPleandtheClosePrineiPle··························……37 ChaPter5ModelsofmarketcomParisonaPProachbyusingfuzzy mathematics’·································································……41 Section1Description························································································……41 Section2FoundationoffuzzymathematiesaPProaehmodel······················……41 Seetion3StePsofmarketeomParisonaPProaehbasedonfuzzy mathematics·····················································································……44 Seetion4TheexaeteomParisonbetweentraditionaleomParisonaPProachand improVedapproach.·····································································...……44 ChaPter6ExamPleofimProvedmarketeomParisonaPProaeh……50 Section1CollecttheinformationofaPPraisalobjeetandcomParative
CaseS··································································································……50 Section2Pickoutcomparativecases’····························································……51 Section3Drawacondusionreasonably·······················································……53 Chapter7Condusionsandsuggcsti0ns’·······································……55
Section1C0ndusi0ns’······················································································……55 Section2Suggestfons’·······················································································……55 Reference’·························································································……57 Ackn0wIedgements’··································，··，··，····，··，·········，···，··········??58 第一章绪论 第一章绪论 第一节研究背景
房地产估价(realestateaPPraisal)，全称房地产价格评估，是专业人员根据
估价目的、遵循估价原则、按照估价程序、选用适宜的估价方法，并在综合分 析影响房地产价格的基础上，对房地产估价时点的客观合理价格进行估算和判 定的活动l’]。随着我国房地产市场的不断发展和壮大，房地产交易案例的急剧 增加，房地产估价在人们的生活、工作中已成为不可缺少的一项专业性、技术 性工作。
我国从1993年开始建立了房地产估价师制度，目前已注册的估价师2万多 人。1999年，建设部会同国家质量技术监督局联合发布了《中华人民共和国国 家标准房地产估价规范》(GB/T50291一1999)，它标志着我国房地产估价有了 国家统一的执业标准。房地产估价，毫无疑问应当做到客观公正、科学合理。 而要做到客观公正、科学合理，就必须遵循房地产价格形成的客观规律。房地 产价格的形成有其客观性，并不以个人的主观意志的改变而转移，因此，房地 产估价也就必须遵循一定的原则，并采用适当的估价方法将待估房地产的客观
价值反映出来。房地产估价的基本方法主要有市场比较法、收益还原法、成本 法。其中市场比较法是最常用、最基础、最能反映房地产市场价值的评估方法。 随着我国房地产一二级市场的建立和逐渐完善，市场比较法已成为房地产估价 工作中的主要方法之一。运用市场比较法评估房地产价格时，首先收集己交易 实例中选择可供比较参照的交易实例，然后进行交易情况、交易日期、房地产 状况修正，最后综合评价确定估价额。其中传统市场比较法有两方面的不足: 一是如何选择与待估房地产条件相同的交易实例并进行因素差异的量化修正。 由于房地产的特性，每宗交易实例不尽相同，选择与待估房地产条件相同的交 易实例具有较大的模糊性。二是计算出各交易实例的修正价格后，如何确定待 估房地产的价格。一般采用等权法或根据估价师经验估计定权。显然，实际工 作中对上述两个问题的处理过于粗略，主观性较大，往往影响最终评估结果的 可信度。
模糊数学是研究和处理模糊性现象的数学方法。把模糊数学理论引入房地
产估价方法中，能从实际上较大程度的解决传统估价方法面临的疑难问题，为 第一章绪论
目前国内房地产估价市场提供一种可信的科学的理论依据和实际操作方法，同 时可以在一定程度上减少估价过程中主观因素而导致的评估价格误差，对科学 确定房地产价格，完善房地产交易市场管理具有较好的理论意义和实际应用价 值。
第二节房地产估价研究评述 一、国外房地产估价研究评述
房地产估价的理论来自于英国各经济学派，并在法国、德国、澳大利亚和
美国等国家得到进一步发展。英国早在1884年便出版了房地产估价的专著，详 细论述了收益法。英国将为承包商服务的技术人员统称为工程师，为业主服务 的技术人员统称为测量师。英国测量师相当于我国的房地产估价师、土地估价 师、资产评估师和监理工程师。1927年，摩茨科(ArthurJ.Mertzke)在房地产 估价界发表了具有划时代意义的《房地产估价过程》，他在这本著作中发展了马 歇尔的思想体系，将价值理论与评估理论紧密结合起来，指出在完全竞争的均 衡条件下，正常价值、长期成本和资本效益价值之间可互为等值，这一思想成 为房地产价值评估中不同估价方法相互验证的理论基础。在这一时期，诸多经 典经济学论著都论述及到估价、价值、成本等概念和理论。后来，海德(K.Lee Hyder，1888一1947)、阿特金松(H二yGrantAtkinson，1890一1979)和舒姆 茨(oeo玛eL.Sehmutz，1893一1958)分别推广和发展了市场比较法、收益法 和成本法等价值评估技术。特别是舒姆茨在《估价过程》(1941年)一书中构 造的估价模型被美国房地产估价师协会收录在首次发表的《房地产估价》(1951 年)一书中，该书成为西方房地产界最有权威的房地产估价专著。
国外房地产价格估价方法可以分为两大类，一是以英国为代表的英联邦国
家，采用五种基本估价方法:一市场比较法、收益法、成本法、利润法、剩余法。 在进行房地产估价时注重经验、艺术，注重市场信息，在推算时很少采用数学 模型。他们认为在市场发达的情况下，直接根据市场信息估价更为可靠。二是 以美国为代表的北美国家，采用三种基本方法:市场比较法、收益法、成本法。 在进行房地产估价时，注重技术与计量，注重数学模型，即从投入产出的角度 来计算房地产价值。他们认为，通过建立具体的数学模型来估价更为公平合理， 第一章绪论